The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
Sadly, The Masters has come and gone. Now we’re heading to South Carolina for the 2018 RBC Heritage on its 50th anniversary. Fourteen of the top 30 in the FedEx Cup will be attending, along with the 2017 defending champion, Wesley Bryan, and runner-up, Luke Donald.
The Course
Harbour Town Golf Links is one of Pete Dye’s signature course designs: It’s a par-71, 7,099-yard course. At under 7,100 yards, it’s one of the shorter courses on tour. This course rewards accuracy over distance off the tee, but we’ll get more into nitty gritty course details shortly.
As always, I backtested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Harbour Town. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 47.09 DraftKings points and a -0.94 Plus/Minus with a 48.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent GIR: +7.20
- Course Putts Per Round: +4.40
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +3.70
- Long-Term Bogeys: +3.24
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +2.83
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.70
- Long-Term Par 4 Scoring: +2.48
- Long-Term Par 3 Scoring: +2.42
- Recent Scrambling: +1.91
- Recent Bogeys: +1.20
- Long-Term Birdies: +1.18
- Course GIR: +1.08
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.83
- Recent Tournament Count: +0.75
- Course Birdies: +0.60
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +0.45
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.29
Unlike most weeks in which Driving Distance is near the top of the list, that metric is not nearly as important this week. We’ll want to favor accuracy off the tee and seek out golfers who can hit greens. Scrambling and bogey avoidance will also be important if golfers find themselves missing the putting surface and needing to save par. Two different putting metrics backtested well here, so Strokes Gained: Putting and putts per round will be something I am weighting. Alright, let’s get to it!
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($12,000) checks in with the highest odds to win (11.1%) this week. DJ is obviously a good ball-striker: He’s hit 71.6% of GIR in his past three tournaments and 69.8% over the past 75 weeks. His long-term Strokes Gained on par-3s and par-4s also ranks in the top three of this field. The only knock on DJ is his Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA) of 56.5%. At his cost, your average salary will drop down to $7,600 per player, so you’ll have to decide whether to take a stars-and-scrubs approach or take on a balanced roster.
Paul Casey‘s ($11,300) second-best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) of 68.1 finally matches his salary, as he’s the second-most expensive golfer behind DJ this week. Casey is a solid fit for the course, hitting 63.8% of fairways and 69.4% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. Casey could potentially fall into trouble with the short stick, as he ranks 94th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, but he has shown success putting at this course in the past:
Matt Kuchar ($10,800) is an excellent fit for this course, as he’s hit 67% of GIR in his past four tournaments (67.2% LT GIR) and hits a tremendous amount of fairways with his 65% LT DA. Kuchar also has solid course history here with top-12 finishes in each of the past four years. Course history on Dye courses could be something to pay attention to given the blind approaches and visual tricks. Kuchar is currently projected for 13-16% ownership: He’s historically been highly-owned in the past four tournaments at Harbour Town:
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
This course seems to have been made for Francesco Molinari ($7,500). Molinari can hit fairways, as evidenced by his 67.5% LT DA, and he strikes the ball well, hitting 68% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. Molinari’s LT Adj Rd Score of 68.9 is sixth-best in the field, but he’s the 26th-most expensive golfer. The main knock on Molinari lately has been his putting with 30.1 Recent Putts Per Round (PPR).
Zach Johnson ($7,900) is sporting a solid 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score, and he has always been reasonably accurate off the tee, as evidenced by his 67% LT DA. Johnson’s recent form also looks great with his 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score, and he’s hitting a fair amount of GIR at 63.9% in his past four tournaments. Per our Trends tool, golfers with similar Vegas odds (2.0%) and metrics to Johnson’s have averaged 65.28 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) and a +5.03 Plus/Minus with a 60.3% Consistency Rating.
Lucas Glover ($6,800) isn’t amazing at a lot of things, but he rates well in a fair amount of metrics we’re weighting this week. Over the past 75 weeks, he has hit 68.8% of GIR (14th-best), he is accurate off the tee with his 64.4% LT DA, and his Recent Scrambling has been serviceable, avoiding bogey or worse on 66.4% of his holes over his past four tournaments. Glover is also sporting a LT Adj Rd Score of 69.3 — the 13th-best mark in the field — yet he costs just $6,800. Golfers with similar Vegas odds (1.0%), metrics, and salaries to Glover’s have historically been solid values:
The Bump and Run
Webb Simpson ($9,400) seems to do well here, making seven straight cuts:
Simpson is tied with Molinari with the sixth-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.9). His putter is on fire right now with 28.1 Recent PPR, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting in his past 29 rounds. Simpson is also one of the better bogey-avoiders in this field with just 8.1 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
I can’t ever seem to quit Patrick Cantlay ($9,100): His 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for the third-best mark in the field, and he’s missed just 4% of cuts in his past 22 tournaments. Cantlay has also hit 69.1% of GIR in the past 75 weeks, and he is sporting a 61.1% DA mark. Where Cantlay may get into trouble this week is if he can’t get his putter figured out. Cantlay is coming off a missed cut at the Masters after averaging 33 PPR, and Cantlay is now averaging 31 PPR over his past three tournaments. He finished third at Harbour Town in 2017, so he has shown success here before.
If you’re in need of a low-owned option, Chesson Hadley is projected for just 2-4% ownership. Hadley has hit 69.9% of GIR in the past 75 weeks while hitting 61.7% of fairways. His -1.1 average adjusted strokes on par-4s and -0.1 on par-3s both rank within the top six of the field, and his LT Bogeys per tournament (7.5) is the ninth-best mark. However, he can be a volatile option with a 28% missed cut rate over the past 75 weeks.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,800) has hit 66.7% of GIR over the past 75 weeks, and his -1.3 average adjusted strokes on par-4s ranks second in the field. Hatton’s driving has also been on point lately with a 69.6% Recent DA mark.
Brian Harman ($9,800) is in excellent recent form with a 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score, and in that timeframe he has hit 69% of GIR with 67.3% DA and only 28.7 PPR. Golfers with comparable Vegas odds (2.9%) and recent metrics to Harman’s have historically averaged 70.59 DraftKings PPT with a +5.87 Plus/Minus and 64.1% Consistency Rating.
Adam Hadwin ($8,100) is in the perfect range to fill out your roster. His recent form is excellent with a 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score, and he’s hit 71.7% of GIR along with 64.5% of fairways in his past four tournaments.
Kevin Kisner‘s ($8,700) recent form doesn’t look great, as his 47.2% GIR outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is dragging his Recent GIR down, but over the past 75 weeks he has hit 65.7% of GIR. Kisner is one of the more accurate drivers on tour with his 68.4% LT DA. Over his past 22 rounds, Kisner also ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Matt Kuchar
Photo credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
