The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Houston Open features a 144-player field and includes 16 golfers who will be playing in preparation for The Masters next week in Augusta, Georgia.
The Course
The Golf Club of Houston is a Par-72, 7,441-yard course. Parts of it imitate August National with short rough and wide fairways.
As always, I’ll be backtesting various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at the Golf Club of Houston. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 49.39 DraftKings points and a +1.85 Plus/Minus with a 50 percent Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD): +4.69
- Recent Tournament Count: +4.61
- Course Driving Distance: +2.38
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA): +2.07
- Recent Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament (Adj Eagles Avg): +1.78
- Course Greens in Regulation (GIR): +1.54
- Long-Term Par 4 Scoring: +1.52
- Course Missed Cuts: +1.52
- Recent GIR: +1.33
- Recent DD: +1.19
- Long-Term Adjusted Bogies Per Tournament (Adj Bogey Avg): +1.02
- Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score): +0.73
- Course DA: +0.47
- Long-Term Scrambling (LT SC): +0.42
- Recent Par 4 Scoring: +0.14
No metric seems to be especially important here, but Long-Term DD has generated the highest Plus/Minus for golfers who’ve finished in the top 20 percent, which makes sense considering there are four par-4s longer than 450 yards; two of the four par-5s are 590-plus yards. Accuracy will come into play as two different DA metrics rate well here, but with limited rough on this course favoring distance may still be the way to go. With the long par-4s, LT par-4 scoring should be something to keep an eye on, as historically it has led to a +1.52 Plus/Minus with a 58.2 percent Consistency Rating. While a few course-specific metrics saw a positive Plus/Minus, Course Adj Rd Score didn’t make the list, so I don’t think it’s crucial to chase past success at this venue. Let’s dive into the players.
The Studs
Rickie Fowler ($11,500) owns the highest salary on the slate: He’s making his seventh start at this course, and he’s finished in the top 10 in three of his four most recent starts at GC of Houston. While Fowler’s LT DD of 298.3 yards isn’t the longest off the tee, he’s hit 67.8 percent of GIR over the past 75 weeks, and his -1.0 average adjusted on par-4s is sixth in the field. He’s tied with Justin Rose ($11,400) for the highest Vegas odds (9.1 percent) to win this week, and Fowler is sporting the second-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.2). Historically, golfers with similar metrics and Vegas odds have averaged 79.64 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +4.95 Plus/Minus and 59.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool ).
At the time of writing, Rose currently has the highest Projected Ownership (21-25 percent) in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on DraftKings. As he sits atop the Colin Davy Player Model, Rose is on a bit of a hot streak with his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68, finishing in the top five in back-to-back events. He’s been hammering the ball with his 305.3-yard Recent and LT DD, and Rose is an excellent ball striker with his 70.3 percent LT GIR. If you’re paying up for Rose, you’re hoping he can take advantage of the par-4s and par-5s, as his average adjusted strokes in both categories rank are top-five in the field.
Jordan Spieth ($11,100) leads the field with his 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score, but he’s been a below-average version of himself as of late, missing two cuts in his past five events and sporting a Recent Adj Rd Score of 69.0. The Texas native isn’t extremely long off the tee with his 295.8-yard LT DD, but he excels on par-4s with his LT -3.3 average adjusted strokes. Spieth is normally landing plenty of GIR with his 69.4 percent LT GIR, but he’s struggled in that department over his past four tournaments, hitting just 58.8 percent of GIR in that time.
Outside of Valspar, Spieth’s putter has been exceptional with his 27.9 Recent PPR, and luckily for him his 72.1 percent Recent SC has made up for his below-average Recent GIR and DA. With lots of hazards on this course, Spieth could find himself in trouble if he can’t turn some aspects of his game around. There is a chance Spieth goes under-owned this week compared to the other top-tier options, given his recent form.
Henrik Stenson ($10,500) is a sniper off the tee with LT and Recent DA marks both above 73 percent. He will be making his seventh start at this course, and while Stenson missed the cut last season he was runner-up in 2016 and has three top-three finishes to his name here. His 289.8-yard LT DD is nothing to write home about, but he’s shown past success at this course due to his incredible DA and GIR capability. His missed cut in 2017 was likely due to his putter, as he sported a 79 percent course DA and hit 67 percent GIR, but he was averaging 31.0 PPR. When he finished runner-up in 2016, Stenson averaged 28.3 PPR. Right now, his putter looks excellent with a 27.3 Recent PPR. That said, putting can be volatile from week to week.
It would be foolish not to mention Phil Mickelson ($10,200), considering he’s playing some of the best golf of his career right now with a field-best 66.9 Recent Adj Rd Score. Mickelson has finished in the top six in each of his past four starts. However, I have some pause with Mickelson, as he has mentioned in the past that he plays this course to prepare for The Masters. In 2016, Mickelson stated:
“… I’m more focused about hitting shots for next week … but I needed to get that work in on a competitive environment. I love playing the week before because you get competitive, but I didn’t make — I didn’t make the smartest play. My course management for this course isn’t going to be great. The shots that I was playing this week are going to set up a lot better next week.”
Mickelson placed 13th that year, but he acknowledged that he likes to use this week to prep for Augusta.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Chez Reavie ($7,300) is interesting, considering he’s got the 11th-best LT Adj Rd Score (69.3) and he’s sporting an +11.46 Plus/Minus over the last month. Reavie’s previous outing was a missed cut at a problematic Valspar tournament where he hit just 50 percent of GIR, but he still had an exceptional 65.4 percent course DA. Reavie isn’t a bomber by any means, but he boasts an exceptional LT GIR of 67 percent, and his LT DA of 71.4 percent ranks third in the field. His recent form isn’t great, as he’s hit 59.2 percent of greens and accumulated a 71.0 Recent Adj Rd Score in his past four tournaments, but he’s missed just one cut in that time. If Reavie can bounce back to his early-season form, you’ll be satisfied with his $7,300 price tag.
James Hahn ($7,100) has done well this season, posting a +17.05 Plus/Minus over his past 10 tournaments with a 70 percent Consistency Rating. He’s finished inside the top 15 just three times in that span, but at $7,100 you don’t need him to win: You’re just hoping he makes the cut, which he’s done successfully every week in that time frame. Hahn has the 11th-best Recent Adj Rd Score (68.8) in the field, thanks to his -7.5 recent average adjusted strokes on par-5s.
The Bump and Run
Steve Stricker ($8,800) is 51 years old and has seen his price rise $1,300 since he last competed at Valspar (he finished 12th). While he’s no longer the bargain he once was, this may help depress his ownership. However, he was never highly owned this season anyway. Stricker’s ownership in his three PGA starts this season was 12.5, 6.4, and 0.9 percent. Over the last month, Sticker averaged an absurd +22.89 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency. His recent performance and 2.4 percent Vegas odds likely contributed to his price hike, since his odds were below one percent for two of his three starts earlier in the season. Stricker is not long off the tee (286.2-yard LT DD), but he is accurate (field-best 74.4 percent LT DA), and he boasts a 69.6 percent LT GIR. Also, Stricker’s -1.6 long-term average adjusted strokes on par-4s trails only that of Spieth. In his career, Stricker has averaged 63.48 DraftKings PPT with an +8.92 Plus/Minus, 73.2 percent Consistency Rating, and average ownership of 8.1 percent.
Luke List ($9,600) and Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($9,300) are both appealing options just below the top tier. List is in marvelous form right now and trails only Mickelson with a Recent Adj Rd Score of 67.7. His Recent Adj Bird Avg (14.3) and recent average adjusted strokes on par-4s (-0.3) and par-5s (-4.8) all rank within the top 16 in the field. Over the past month, List has averaged a +19.61 Plus/Minus with an 83 percent Consistency Rating. RCB is tied with Stricker for fourth in the field with his 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score, and his 1.0 Recent Adj Eagle Avg makes him one of two golfers averaging at least one eagle per tournament over the past six weeks.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Luke List
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
