The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
It is the second week of the four-week FedEx Cup Playoffs, which means the field is cut to 100 golfers. Since Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, J.B. Holmes, and Scott Piercy have withdrawn, there are now 96 for the Dell Technologies Championship. The scores will likely go low — the winner has finished at 15-under par or better each year since 2005 — and because the cut rules stay the same (top 70 plus ties) most golfers will meet or exceed their salary-based expectations. This course, TPC Boston, can challenge golfers, but for the reasons listed above the baseline golfer has averaged 59.76 DraftKings points, a +8.51 Plus/Minus, and a 72.5 percent Consistency Rating (per the PGA Trends tool):
The Course
Kelly McCann posted a helpful course breakdown on TPC Boston, so read that if you want detailed analysis on holes and the types of players who have historically performed well here. I’ll hit the basics before we move on to the golfer analysis part of this piece.
TPC Boston is a Par 71 course playing at 7,342 yards. That favors players with distance, although there were some surprising results when I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models. I have written a couple articles on building an optimal model for a course/tournament, and while I won’t have that piece out this week I’ll give the data below. It’s a bit confusing but potentially illuminating on how to be contrarian in such a loaded field. Per the Trends tool, here are the metrics that tested above baseline (you can find my method here):
- Course Driving Accuracy (DA): +15.25 Plus/Minus, +6.74 over baseline
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +11.33 Plus/Minus, +2.82 over baseline
- Course Greens in Regulations (GIR): +11.05 Plus/Minus, +2.54 over baseline
- Putts Per Round (PPR) Differential: +11.00 Plus/Minus, +2.49 over baseline
- Long-Term Count: +10.28 Plus/Minus, +1.77 over baseline
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +10.10 Plus/Minus, +1.59 over baseline
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +9.59 Plus/Minus, +1.08 over baseline
- Course Putts Per Round: +9.47 Plus/Minus, +0.96 over baseline
- Long-Term Field Percentage: +9.27 Plus/Minus, +0.76 over baseline
- Recent Putts Per Round: +8.67 Plus/Minus, +0.16 over baseline
The thing that should immediately stand out is that Adjusted Round Score — our proprietary all-in-one metric that best identifies a golfer’s talent — is not found in its Long-Term, Recent, or Course form. What gives? My theory: Since all of these golfers are elite anyway — the field is like a major except smaller — there’s not much of an edge in looking at Adj Rd Score. It’s still important certainly — but these golfers all have solid Adj Rd Scores anyway.
Instead, an edge can be found in recent play and course form: Golfers who have shown the ability to stay on the fairways and hit greens at TPC Boston have performed well in the past. Recent Driving Accuracy also tested positively, which suggests there’s also an edge in identifying golfers who are in the best recent form in terms of ball-striking. You shouldn’t ignore distance — LT DD has had a Plus/Minus of +1.59 over the baseline — but most golfers here are long enough to handle this course. These results are weird, but it’s likely that focusing on accuracy will lead to contrarian golfers.
The Studs
The data above highlights some notable golfers this week. For example, here are the players who rank in the top 20 percent in Course DA:
Kevin Kisner is the highest-priced golfer in this group at $7,700, and James Hahn at just $6,700 leads the entire field, ranking in the 91st percentile in Course DA. DFS players will want to roster guys like Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth, especially after their epic Sundays and playoffs, and there are seemingly some good options to pair them with in the lower range.
Although DJ and Spieth were owned in 22.24 percent and 14.94 percent of lineups in the $33 Dogleg, they were owned together in just 1.24 percent of rosters (per the new DFS Contests Dashboard):
Unfortunately, given their sky-high salaries this week, it is impossible to roster both. At their salaries of $12,000 and $12,100, that gives users only $6,475 per golfer for the remaining four spots, and the minimum salary this week is $6,700. You’ll have to choose one or the other this week, and it is difficult to distinguish between them. DJ leads the tournament with 12.5 percent implied odds to win, and his 67.7 LT Adj Rd is the best in the field as well. Spieth is right below him, though, with 11.1 percent implied odds to win and a 67.8 LT Adj Rd. They both have been sufficiently long off the tee recently, averaging at least a 305.0-yard Recent DD, and DJ has a slight edge with his 68.5 Course Adj Rd. That said, DJ is also projected for higher ownership on DraftKings at 21-25 percent versus Spieth’s 17-20 percent. They’re neck-and-neck in almost every way.
And I’ll also quickly mention Rory McIlroy, who has the highest projected ownership at 31-35 percent. He does have elite history here, winning in 2016 and 2012 and posting a 67.4 Course Adj Rd. That said, he also had elite history at Quail Hollow and finished just 22nd, which is fine but not worthy of a massive salary and ownership rate. He has a Recent DA mark of 50 percent along with a Recent GIR of 62.2 percent. If he continues to struggle with accuracy as he has of late, he is yet again a fade candidate in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shortly after the event starts, Pro subscribers can review ownership trends in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
The Value Plays
Paul Casey has been a chalk cash-game play pretty much every week in 2017, and it’s hard to start fading him now. Over his last 10 weeks, he’s been perhaps the most valuable asset in DFS golf, posting a +16.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus on a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating:
He is pricier this week at $8,900 but hard to argue with his 67.3 Recent Adj Rd and a second-place finish at TPC Boston last year. He is a great ball-striker, as evidenced by his 64.8 LT DA and 69.6 LT GIR. He should be chalky with an ownership projection of 26-30 percent.
That range between $7,900 and $8,900 is intriguing and seems to be filled with viable cash-game plays. Casey (68.3 LT Adj Rd), Matt Kuchar (68.5), Brooks Koepka (68.7), Sergio Garcia (68.3), Justin Rose (68.6), and Adam Scott (68.6) all have elite long-term marks and are priced lower than usual because of 1) the loaded field and/or 2) recent or course struggles. Kuchar stands out because of his recent play, posting a 67.7 Recent Adj Rd, 63.3 Recent GIR, and 65.0 Recent DA over his past five tournaments, finishing 10th, ninth, 17th, 32nd, and second. He hasn’t missed a cut in each of his last six trips to TPC Boston. If you are taking the angle of recent and course accuracy, it is probably wise to be overweight on Kuch.
Lower in salary, Francesco Molinari stands out with an elite 68.7 LT Adj Rd, and yet he’s $6,900. He’s just a couple weeks removed from a second-place finish at the PGA Championship, which proved to have one of the toughest courses in the 2017 PGA season. He has a ridiculous 69.1 LT DA and could be penalized by the public for both missing the cut last week and having zero course history at TPC Boston. Chez Reavie is also intriguing with his accuracy, and he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership. He’s the highest-rated player in the optimal model I discussed above, mostly because of his elite accuracy numbers: His 69.9 LT DA is the best in the entire field (Molinari is second), and he’s been just as good lately, posting a 67.4 Recent GIR and 69.2 Recent DA. He missed the cut last year but has been on a roll lately, posting a +15.94 Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 tourneys this season.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Lucas Glover: He’s at a weird price point at $7,500 and should be contrarian; he’s projected for just two to four percent ownership. He has a nice combination of length (305.5-yard Recent DD) and accuracy, as evidenced by his 67.1 Recent GIR and 69.6 Recent DA. He hasn’t played TPC Boston since 2011 but nailed fairways and greens in that tournament and has a 68.8 Course Adj Rd.
Louis Oosthuizen: He is probably overpriced at $9,100, but he has arguably the best course history in the field, posting a 67.0 Adj Rd over his last three visits. He finished eighth, 12th, and second in those events, and he came in 10th at last week’s Northern Trust and second at the PGA Championship. His 60.1 Recent GIR is concerning, but it is hard to ignore that history at TPC Boston.
Jason Day: Ditto for Day, who has a ridiculous 68.1 Course Adj Rd over his last six visits here. That said, he also has ominous recent accuracy marks, specifically a 62.5 Recent GIR and atrocious 44.7 Recent DA. But he’s been accurate at TPC Boston, finishing in the top 15 in six of his last seven trips. He seems to be trending in the right direction, at least in terms of his putting and strokes gained metrics, and he has the talent to win.
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Good luck this week!
