The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
Hopefully you didn’t get used to the Friday cut sweats, as the PGA Tour is back to a limited field event with no cut at the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. For the next three weeks, the tour will travel throughout Asia featuring 78-man fields with no cut. The current PGA Tour Player of the Year and reigning FedEx Cup champion, Justin Thomas looks for a three-peat here after looping this course with a combined 49-under par the past two years en route to two victories. Welcome to Justin Chalk-mas week, everybody.
The Course
TPC Kuala Lumpur is a Par 72 course playing at 7,005 yards, which makes it one of the shortest courses on tour with four Par 5 holes. Last year, 28 of 78 golfers (35.9 percent of the field) finished the tournament at double-digits under par. All of the golfers who finished in the top-five had at least one round of 65 or better; Thomas had two rounds of 64 on his way to a winning score of 23-under par. Hitting greens and draining birdie putts at a high rate are keys to success around Kuala Lumpur.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable at this track. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) in Malayasia. Unsurprisingly, in a no-cut event at an easy course, the 78 golfers in the field tore this place up last season, averaging 77.71 points and a +16.03 Plus/Minus with 82.1 percent Consistency. It’s a track that likely lends itself well to an extreme stars-and-scrubs approach.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +17.34
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +19.09
- Long-Term Adjusted Putts Per Round (Adj PPR): +16.97
- Long-Term Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament (Adj Eagle Avg): +25.39
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +17.93
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +19.01
- Recent Greens In Regulation (GIR): +16.52
- Recent DD: +17.51
- Recent Adj PPR: +22.86
- Recent Adj Eagle Avg: +23.82
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +21.41
- Recent Adjusted Bogey Per Tournament (Adj Bogey Avg): +18.03
These metrics backtested above the already-impressive Plus/Minus baseline at Kuala Lumpur. Among these, Adj Eagle Avg (both LT and Recent), Recent Adj PPR, and Recent Adj Bird Avg all produce incredible results. On a very short track with four Par 5 holes, the impact of eagles — especially when considering DraftKings scoring — should come as no surprise.
The Studs
Thomas ($12,300) has won this event twice and has two wins and a runner-up finish in his five most recent events. JT’s 67.1 Recent Adj Rd Score leads the field, and he currently has massive 20 percent odds to win this tournament. Per the Trends tool, golfers with 15-25 percent implied odds to win have previously produced a +7.24 Plus/Minus with 58.1 percent Consistency and very chunky 34.1 percent ownership. He’s projected to be in 17-20 percent of lineups this week.
Last year’s runner-up at Kuala Lumpur, Hideki Matsuyama ($11,200) has finished fifth or better here in his last two trips. Matsuyama did not finish higher than 23rd in his final three events in the FedEx Cup, and as a result his 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is about field average this week. That said, his 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score is second overall, and his 15.4 LT Adj Bird Avg leads the field.
The best LT Adj Rd Score in the field (68.2) belongs to Paul Casey ($10,500), who has been knocking on the door of a win for the past two calendar years. Around 2,000 years ago, a highly-quoted individual said something about if you knock it will be answered, so there’s still hope for Casey. Paul’s 70.3 LT GIR percentage leads the field, his 14.1 LT Adj Bird Avg is fourth, and his 67.4 Recent Adj Rd Score is second to only Thomas’. Casey hasn’t finished higher than 21st here in three trips, which is relatively unimpressive in a 78-man field.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
This week, Hudson Swafford ($6,900) has the 17th-best LT Adj Rd Score and the 10th-lowest salary. Swafford has turned up his play recently: He is tied for sixth in the field with his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score, ranks seventh with his 71.6 Recent GIR percentage, and is tied for 14th with his 16.6 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Outside of DFS, Swafford currently has +8,000 moneyline odds in the prop market to win the tournament. While that may not be likely, other players with similar salaries have +25,000 moneyline odds.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($7,400) finished 10th in his only appearance here last year. RCB is tied for sixth with his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score and owns a top-12 LT Adj Rd Score. Cabrera ranks fifth overall with his 69.1 LT GIR percentage and has poured in a 16.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg (tied for 14th). He has the talent to win in elite fields as he demonstrated with his fourth-place finish at The Open Championship in July.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Jason Dufner ($7,900): Dufner’s fourth-best 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score and fifth-best 13.9 LT Adj Bird Avg are out of whack with his $7,900 salary this week. Dufner hasn’t received a lot of chatter this week and is likely to be under-owned relative to his talent.
Kevin Tway ($7,000): Tway ranks very well in both Recent (first overall) and LT (tied for sixth) Adj Eagle Avg. Eagles are likely to be a key to racking up DraftKings points this week, and Tway looks poised to do so. He has demonstrated serious value with a +17.87 Plus/Minus in his last three tournaments.
