What You Need To Know
TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas hosts the 2016 Shriners Open. The tournament has seen 10 first-time winners in a 14-year span, including last year’s winner, Smylie Kaufman.
Kaufman went medieval with a 10-under par 61 on Sunday to erase a seven-shot deficit and hoist the trophy.
Kaufman is back to defend his title along with current PGA Champion Jimmy Walker and Brooks Koepka. The field boasts six of the top 36 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Since 2012, being accurate off the tee has been much more important than being long off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Last season, five of the top-10 finishers ranked inside the top 10 for both Driving Accuracy (DA) and Greens in Regulation (GIR). We’ll be looking for accurate drivers who can pepper the greens this week.
Driving Accuracy
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Francsico Molinari ranks fifth in the field and first among the high-priced tier with a 68.4 Long-Term (LT) DA percentage.
Molinari has a win and a sixth-place finish in his last two starts, so he arrives at this tournament in excellent form: His 66.3 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is the best in the field by more than a full stroke.
Francisco’s increased salary could keep his ownership low this week, and he is an excellent play in guaranteed prize pools.
Las Vegas native Ryan Moore will likely receive a lot of love this week. His 67.6 percent LT DA is ninth and his 5.3 percent Odds to Win are the best in the field.
Moore won the event in 2012 and finished inside the top 10 in both 2013 and 2009. He also missed the cut twice in the past five years. High-priced players with comparable LT DA and Odds to Win have previously produced a +9.47 Plus/Minus with impressive 65.1 percent Consistency.
*Writer’s note: Both Moore and Molinari meet the criteria for this trend.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Lucas Glover is currently the highest-rated player in the CSURAM88 Player Model. His 65.4 percent LT DA ranks 24th and his 70.4 percent LT GIR is 12th. Glover has missed the cut at this event for three straight years: He’s a boom-or-bust GPP play this week.
Ben Martin doesn’t jump off the page, but his 60.7 percent LT DA is very respectable, and his 65.6 LT GIR percentage is also good enough to get it done. Martin won here in 2014 and backed that up with a 25th place finish in 2015. At just $7,600, he’s viable in all formats.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Colt Knost leads the entire field with a 72.4 percent LT DA rate, and his 69.9 LT ADj Rd Score is 23rd. There are only 10 players in the field with a lower salary this week, and none of them has a LT Adj Rd Score better than 70.9.
Knost has sandwiched two missed cuts at this event around 18th- and 13th-place finishes. He could be a valuable member of a stars-and-scrubs strategy this week.
Greens in Regulation
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Keegan Bradley finished sixth his last time out at the CIMB Classic and has been playing well since midsummer. He hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open in June, and his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 10th in the field.
Bradley’s 69.5 LT GIR percentage is 20th overall but is the best mark in the high-priced tier. Bradley’s 69.6 LT Adj Rd Score is 10th overall and his eight Pro Trends are tied for the most in the field.
Similarly priced golfers with comparable LT metrics have traditionally produced a +6.80 Plus/Minus Bradley is a tilting prudent GPP play this week.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Nick Watney‘s 70.2 LT GIR ranks 13th, and he has a very long history at this course. His 69 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fifth among golfers who have made more than one start at this track. Watney has five top-16 finishes here in the last six years, including a second-place finish in 2011.
Watney finished 35th at the Safeway Open three weeks ago. Prior to that he hadn’t played since January because of a herniated disc in his lower back. Because of the injury and lack of recent play, Watney is suitable for GPPs only.
Webb Simpson slaughtered 86.1 percent of GIR in his last time out (the best Recent GIR percentage in the field). And, like Watney, he has an excellent course history here.
Simpson’s 68.3 Course Adj Rd Score is tops among golfers who have played more than one tournament at TPC Summerlin. He won here in 2013 and finished fourth in both 2010 and 2014. Simpson has missed the cut in his two most recent events but this is a course that could get his game turned around. Tee him up in GPPs.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Vaughn Taylor has been crushing his salary-based expectations since July. He’s missed only two cuts in his last nine starts and has made the cut at this event in his last three appearances.
His 80.6 Recent GIR percentage is the third-best mark in the field, and his 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 11th. Comparably priced players with similar recent metrics have generated a +3.78 Plus/Minus with 57.5 percent Consistency.
Good luck!
