The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday’s slate features nine games and starts at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Despite an abundance of stud PGs available across today’s slate, the matchups do not bode well for most of them: Only Kyrie Irving has a positive projected Plus/Minus among PGs priced above $8,000 on DraftKings. The Celtics own the fourth highest implied team total (108.75 points) on the slate; and Irving has a solid individual matchup (an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.09). While the ex-Cavalier hasn’t shown much of a ceiling playing for Boston this season, he has returned value in 85 percent of his games over the past month.
Value
The Pelicans lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 118 points, thanks in part to their juicy matchup versus Phoenix. The Suns’ torrid pace (second fastest in the league this season) combined with third-from-the-bottom defensive efficiency ranking would seem the perfect recipe for a heaping pile of points. Rajon Rondo is still working his way back from a sports hernia injury that sidelined him for most of the first part of the season. Over his last three starts, Rondo has averaged just 26 minutes per game. It’s possible he sees more minutes today. But even if doesn’t, there’s still attractive value to be gleaned considering his average of 0.92 fantasy points per minute and $4,900 salary on DraftKings.
Mario Chalmers has taken on a big role for the Grizzlies after the injury to Mike Conley, averaging roughly 30 minutes and 28 DraftKings points in games without the Grizzlies star PG:
He has an up-tempo matchup today against the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +6.0. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder leads all PG-eligible players with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He continues to dominate the usage for the Atlanta Hawks – his 29.9 percent usage rate ranks 14th in the league this season – and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.61 over his last three games.
Elfrid Payton is coming off a season high 34 minutes in his last start against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and gets a decent individual matchup today against Kyrie Irving and the Celtics. The Celtics have defended valiantly this season, for the most part. But they have been somewhat vulnerable against PGs:
That’s not entirely surprising given Irving’s individual struggles as a defender: He ranked just 69th out of 79 qualifiers at PG in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season. Payton is always a threat for a triple double and is affordable on both sites at just $6,200 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has seen a solid spike in usage and production since the departure of Eric Bledsoe, averaging a usage rate of 28.9 percent and 36.76 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. Despite that fact, his salary has actually decreased to $7,200 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Pelicans, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25.
Values
After a slow start to the season, Tim Hardaway Jr has been scorching over his last 10 games:
His usage rate of 23.9 percent trails just Kristaps Porzingis among Knicks regulars, and he has an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who have allowed the 6th highest average Plus/Minus to opposing SGs this season.
Marcus Smart has been a solid contributor for the Celtics over the past year, averaging 26.3 FanDuel points per game. He’s coming off back-to-back games of at least 34 minutes, yet has seen his salary decrease by $1,200 on FanDuel over the past month. Given the Celtics matchup and implied team total, he seems like a solid investment for cash games.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has had a rough transition to his new role with the Minnesota Timberwolves, seeing a pretty significant decrease in his points per game and usage rate when compared to his time in Chicago. That said, there’s some reason for optimism. He’s shooting just 42.9 percent from the field after shooting at least 45.4 percent in each of the last three seasons, so he could be due for some positive regression in that department. Either way, he’s likely underpriced on DraftKings at the moment at just $6,800. He’s averaged 35.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 13 games, so he doesn’t need to do anything additional to return value at his current salary.
Nicolas Batum has been ruled out for today’s game against the Cavaliers, which should open the door for Jeremy Lamb to return to the starting lineup. Lamb was a solid contributor in Batum’s absence early in the season, averaging 29.04 DraftKings points in 30.3 minutes per game. His salary has decreased to $5,100 from its peak of $6,300 on DraftKings, so he should offer solid value in that role.
Small Forward
Stud
Paying up for LeBron James is almost always a safe option, especially given the amount of minutes he’s been playing recently. His average of 37.7 minutes per game ranks third in the league this season, and he’s parlayed those minutes into a Consistency Rating of 86 percent over the past 12 months. He has a decent matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.13. He’s a much stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $11,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Values
Courtney Lee may not be garnering much attention, but he’s been outstanding recently:
Despite the production, he remains affordable on DraftKings at just $4,600, and has an exploitable matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks.
What does TJ Warren have to do to get some respect? He increased his average Plus/Minus +4.67 on DraftKings over his last 10 games and has scored only marginally fewer fantasy points than Booker this season:
He remains criminally underpriced on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans has led the Grizzlies in both usage rate and fantasy production with Conley off the court this season:
The Nuggets have been sturdy defensively this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.93 for Evans, but this is a solid pace-up spot for the Grizzlies.
While Lamb will likely garner the majority of the attention given the Batum injury, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another candidate to see an increased role for the Hornets today. He’s played at least 31 minutes in four of his last five games and represents a significant savings from Lamb at just $4,000 on DraftKings.
Paul George has been a solid value on FanDuel for the majority of the season, and today looks to be no exception. His Bargain Rating of 60 percent is a bit of an anomaly among the top SFs today, with none of the other five priciest options owning a Bargain Rating greater than 13 percent. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
PF will likely be a popular spot for people to spend up at today given the quality value options at other positions. Anthony Davis has possibly the top matchup of the day against the Phoenix Suns, who have allowed the fourth highest Plus/Minus to opposing PFs on DraftKings this season:
Davis is still routinely posting a lower usage rate than DeMarcus Cousins, but he’s making up for it by contributing in all the other categories across the board. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
As good as Davis has been this season, Porzingis has actually been better on a per-minute basis. He has a solid matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, who have the fourth worst rebound rate in the league this season. Porzingis is second in the league with a usage rate of 34.5 percent, and he’s leading the league with an average of 2.3 blocks per game. That combination of offensive and defensive ability gives him one of the highest ceilings in the game.
Values
John Collins has played big-time minutes for the Hawks in each of the last two games, thanks in part to the injuries to Luke Babbitt and Mike Muscala. Both of those players have already been ruled out of today’s game, which should open the door for Collins to assume 30 plus minutes once again. He’s averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute this season on DraftKings, so he has the capability of crushing his current $4,800 salary given additional minutes.
Pascal Siakam has played at least 29 minutes in each of the last three games for the Toronto Raptors, averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.02 on DraftKings over that time frame. His salary has not budged despite his excellent production, remaining just $3,800 for today’s matchup with the Indiana Pacers. The Raptors frontcourt will also be thinner than usual, with CJ Miles set to miss today’s contest for personal reasons.
Fast Break
It’s going to be tough to play any member of the Bulls given that they’re massive 18-point underdogs on the road against the Golden State Warriors. Regardless of the outcome, one Bull whose minutes are probably safe is Bobby Portis. Coming off the bench, Portis averages only about 20 minutes per game, still enough for him to be averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.70 on FanDuel this season. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.72, meanwhile, is one of the top marks on today’s slate.
Carmelo Anthony represents a solid discount from the top group of PFs on today’s slate, despite performing as reliably as anyone this season. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month. And his 12 Pro Trends are tied with Davis for the most on among PF eligible players on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
It’s going to be tough to avoid DeMarcus Cousins on FanDuel today. He’s the only center priced above $7,000 with a Bargain Rating above 60 percent, which mean’s he’s not just one of the best players on the slate – he’s also one of the best values. Cousins is third in the NBA in usage rate this season, and today’s matchup against the Suns results in a paceD of +2.8 for him and his fellow Pelicans. Historically, Cousins has crushed it on FanDuel in comparable pace-up situations:
His current floor projection ranks first on today’s slate. His median and ceiling projections both rank second.
Value
Steven Adams has experienced something of a rollercoaster season. But his dips have owed more to minutes and injuries than to poor play. He’s coming off a season high 37 minutes in his last game against the Warriors. He will likely need to play as many minutes today if the plan is to combat the size of the Pistons’ Andre Drummond. Adams’ $5,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and comparably priced players have historically been excellent values with a similar number of Pro Trends:
He should continue to serve as one of the focal points for the Grizzlies offense given the Conley injury.
Nikola Vucevic has exceeded value in two straight games and is priced at a season-low $6,600 on DraftKings for today’s contest with the Celtics. Vuc has historically provided excellent value when comparably priced:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
