The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and other industry metrics to highlight notable golfers.
We have another Pro-Am on our hands this week as the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach, California. Similar to The American Express, it’s another three-course rotation, with Pebble Beach being the course that golfers will play twice if they make the cut heading into the fourth day.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
I did a full breakdown of the course. Check it out.
Key metrics: Greens in regulation (GIR), Strokes Gained: Approach, scrambling par-4 and par-5 scoring, birdie or better scoring.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Scores (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Core Plays
This field is not great when you look into the $7,000-$7,900 range on DraftKings, which is the range you get put into when you start targeting guys above $10,000. That said, I still want some exposure to Patrick Cantlay ($10,900 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel).
Cantlay has hit 70.2% of GIR over the last 75 weeks and ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds, per Fantasy National. Additionally, he leads the field with a -2.2 adjusted strokes on par 4s, and he’s one of two players in the field who average more than 17 birdies per tournament.
Cantlay also has an excellent short game, giving him the ability to hopefully avoid any disastrous holes from any errant approach shots. This field isn’t that strong, and he stands out in nearly every metric you look at.
Cameron Tringale ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) is one of my favorite sources of salary relief in this field. His 15 birdies per tournament ranks sixth in the field over the last six weeks, and he’s been solid on par 4s over the same time frame, averaging -1.4 strokes on them. Additionally, over his last 50 rounds, Tringale ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach. Sadly, the way this week is panning out, a lot of the golfers in this range will make you uncomfortable.
Russell Knox ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) is one of the better ball strikers in the field, hitting 71.5% of GIR over the last 75 weeks and ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds. He’s been incredibly consistent with 11-straight made cuts.
Tournament Targets
With Cantlay and Dustin Johnson up top, I think Paul Casey ($10,500 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel) could see the lowest ownership of this group. Casey’s putter is always an issue, but he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 50 rounds and trails only Cantlay in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
If you want to take a stars and scrubs approach by jamming in two $10,000-plus golfers since they’re guaranteed three rounds, it’s possible to do so, but it’s not pretty because you’ll need to punt in the lower $7,000 range. Aaron Wise ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) ranks 17th in birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 50 rounds. Wise also boasts a top-20 LT Adj Rd Score.
Similarly priced, Harold Varner ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) ranks 23rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Both golfers are coming off a string of missed cuts, Wise gained strokes on approach in three-straight rounds, while Varner gained strokes on approach in two of his three missed cuts. They were just let down by their putters mostly.
I wouldn’t recommend going overweight on this strategy, but with three guaranteed rounds, it may be worth a shot if you’re mass-multi-entering. You could put a 3-5% cap on Varner and Wise and likely still be overweight relative to the field since I don’t think they’ll catch much ownership.
If you fade the $10,000-plus range altogether, it’s easy to target three or four guys above $8,000 on DraftKings. One of those guys is Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,700 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel). Dating back to January of 2019, he’s missed just two cuts, and he’s entering this tournament with four top 10s in five events dating back to November. Overall, he boasts the fifth-best LT Adj Rd Score and ranks sixth in birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks. He’s also cash viable if you’re going with a balanced approach.
Favorite Values
There aren’t that many value plays I love in this weaker field. Adam Hadwin ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) is still reasonably cheap on DraftKings, priced just outside the top 20, but he carries the fifth-best LT Adj Rd Score.
Jim Furyk ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) is another golfer priced outside the top 20 that boasts a top-20 LT Adj Rd Score. He’s always a solid fit on shorter tracks like we’ll see this week. Surprisingly, over his last 50 rounds, he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Tom Hoge’s ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) long-term form isn’t great, but he’s been hot of late, sporting a 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, which is the second-best mark over the last six weeks. His Strokes Gained metrics look just as good, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth in Total Strokes Gained over his last 24 rounds.
The Rest
Dustin Johnson ($11,600 DraftKings; $12,400 FanDuel) is likely the best option on the board if you can afford him. He leads the field in outright and T10 odds, along with his field-best 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score. He and Cantlay are the only golfers in the field averaging over 16 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks.
Matt Kuchar ($9,900 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) is a strong target if you’re fading the $10,000 range. Kuchar has been solid at Pebble Beach, and he sets up well on shorter courses. Kuchar ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds and ranks fourth in the field over the last 75 weeks in birdies per tournament.
Viktor Hovland ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) missed the cut on the number last week, which wasn’t great and demolished my chances of a 6/6 lineup. I still like him again because he has excellent long-term form with his seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score and has averaged -1.2 and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s.
Given this is going to be a wedge fest and distance doesn’t matter, Vaughn Taylor ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) is worth a look even though his irons have struggled of late. Taylor has a solid short game and is one of the better putters in the field over the long run.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Photo credit: David Cannon/Getty Images
Pictured: Matthew Fitzpatrick
