NFL Week 16 features a Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Josh Allen at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
There has been a changing of the guard in the AFC East this season. The Bills have already clinched the division for the first time since 1995, while the Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Bills are expected to win this contest. They are currently listed as 7.5-point favorites despite the fact they’re playing in New England.
The biggest reason for the Bills’ ascension this season has been the play of Allen. He has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in football, especially from a fantasy perspective. He’s capable of racking up yards and touchdowns with his arms and his legs, just like he did last week against the Broncos. He ultimately finished with 40.88 DraftKings points, which was one of the highest scores we’ve seen from a quarterback all season.
He’s in an interesting spot this week against the Patriots. On one hand, their defense has not been particularly good this season.
They rank 16th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA, and they lost one of their top defensive backs in Stephon Gilmore to a season-ending injury. On the other hand, the Patriots have played at one of the slowest paces in the league, which limits the number of plays for the opposition. Add it all up, and Allen owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.5.
Ultimately, Allen leads all players on the slate in median, ceiling, and floor projections, but he does carry a bit more downside than usual in this matchup.
Stefon Diggs has been Allen’s favorite target this season, and he’s carried a monster workload recently.
He’s finished with at least 11 targets in five of his past six games, and he’s averaged 10.3 receptions and 123 receiving yards over his past three. There was a scary moment during the Bills’ last game when Diggs went down with an injury, but he practiced in full for most of the week. That means he should be good to go on Monday night.
The Patriots still have a solid secondary even without Gilmore, giving Diggs an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.5 on DraftKings, but he’s essentially matchup-proof. Expect Diggs and Allen to be the highest-owned two-man stack on the slate, and both players should also be very popular plays in the Captain spot.
What a rise it has been for Cole Beasley. He was priced at just $6,800 on DraftKings three weeks ago, but he’s all the way up to $10,000 against the Patriots. He has unsurprisingly been very productive over that stretch, logging at least 10 targets in all three games.
That said, this might be the time to sell high. John Brown is expected to return to the lineup, and he should siphon away targets away from Beasley. Overall, Beasley owns one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks in our NFL Models. He’s slightly more reasonable on FanDuel, so get your exposure to him over there.
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Midrange
There are no real stud targets for the Patriots, who have been a disaster offensively. They exploded for 45 points against the Chargers in Week 13, but other than that, they’ve scored 20 points or fewer in four straight games.
Cam Newton has caught a lot of heat for the Pats’ offensive struggles, and deservedly so. He’s struggled from a fantasy perspective as well, finishing with 12.16 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games.
That said, this is a prime spot for Newton to do what he does best: run the football. The Patriots’ offensive line has a massive mismatch against the Bills’ defensive line.
Pro Football Focus gives them an 83% edge in the run game, so there should be massive holes for Newton all night. He should see reduced ownership given his recent play, and he owns the second-highest ceiling projections in our NFL Models. He’s an excellent buy-low option.
Damien Harris should also find a way to take advantage of this mismatch in the trenches if he’s active. He was limited at practice all week and is officially listed as questionable. He was unable to suit up last week after being limited at practice, so there’s no guarantee that he will be in the lineup.
The Patriots also have a deep rotation of running backs, which makes Harris difficult to trust even if he’s active. He could see a limited workload with backs like Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead grabbing a larger piece of the rushing pie.
Next up is the Bills backfield duo of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary. They are priced very similarly in this matchup, which makes sense considering they are both playing on roughly 50% of the snaps.
Singletary is coming off a big game last week, but Moss still stands out as the preferred option. He’s seen a higher percentage of the rushing attempts, and he’s also more likely to get the touches around the goal line. He had five carries in the red zone last week, but Allen ultimately ended up scoring the rushing touchdowns in that portion of the field. Moss could be the guy who finds the end zone in that area this week.
Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the Patriots’ top option in the passing game.
That role hasn’t always led to a ton of value — they rank 30th in passing yards per game this season — but he did manage seven receptions for 111 yards last week. The result was 20.1 DraftKings points and a +6.72 Plus/Minus. If the Patriots are unable to keep this game competitive, Meyers would likely be the biggest beneficiary of the garbage time receptions.
Michel would become one of the best plays on the slate if Harris is inactive.
Michel hasn’t been the most productive running back throughout his career, averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt over his first two seasons, but he’s upped that mark to 5.7 yards per carry in 2020. He was excellent operating as the Patriots’ lead back last week, finishing with 74 yards on just 10 attempts. Michel has the potential for a huge day given the mismatch in the trenches if he sees the lion’s share of the touches.
James White wouldn’t necessarily see the same bump if Harris is out. He took just two carries last week with Harris out of the lineup. His value comes as a receiver out of the backfield, so he tends to play better in games in which the Patriots find success through the air. He makes sense if you think the Bills can build a big lead and the Pats will be playing from behind.
Dawson Knox has had a mini breakout recently.
He has scored a touchdown in three of his past four games, and he’s seen at least four targets in each of his past three. Knox has impressive measurables, according to PlayerProfiler, and he was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft. That said, he’s in a tough spot this week vs. the Patriots. New England currently ranks third in DVOA against the TE position, and PFF gives him a -27% edge in his individual matchup vs. Kyle Dugger. This is probably a good opportunity to sell high on him.
Gabriel Davis is another Bills’ pass catcher who’s tough to trust this week. He will likely revert to the Bills’ fourth wide receiver with Brown back in the lineup, which doesn’t give him a ton of relevance at his current salary.
Values & Punts
- Kickers and Defenses — These options are always in play in the single-game format. The total currently sits at just 46.0 points, and these options tend to have more value in these types of games.
- Damiere Byrd: $4,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel — Byrd plays a ton of snaps every single week, which always gives him a chance to be fantasy relevance. That said, if the Patriots run the ball successfully, there likely won’t be enough targets for Meyers and Byrd to return value.
- N’Keal Harry: $3,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — Harry doesn’t play as often as Byrd, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in three of his past five games.
- John Brown: $2,800 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel — Assuming Brown isn’t limited, he’s going to be very tough to avoid at his current price tag across the industry. He posted at least six catches and 72 yards in his final two games before landing on IR.
Pictured: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images.
Photo Credit: Cam Newton.
