Turkey day is here! And while families will enjoy a buffet of Thanksgiving dinner, we’ll also be feasting on a full day of football. The Minnesota Vikings host the New England Patriots in the nightcap, looking to rebound from their humiliating 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Four days isn’t a lot of time to prepare for either team, but there is plenty on the line for both teams as they look to solidify their respective playoff positions.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
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Patriots vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
If we learned one thing from the Vikings’ Week 11 loss, they can’t maintain coverage of running backs in the passing game. Tony Pollard went off for 109 receiving yards on six catches, including a game-long 68-yard catch-and-run. Minnesota has allowed running backs to accumulate 29 or more receiving yards in four of their past six, a trend we expect to continue on Thursday Night.
Even without the edge, Rhamondre Stevenson has been a solid pass-catching back for the Pats this season. The former fourth-round pick has been targetted six or more times in four straight games, hauling in 24 of his 28 targets. Except for Week 9, Stevenson has been effective at racking up yards via the passing game, gaining 56 or more yards in the other three contests.
In tandem with the Vikings’ inability to bottle up running backs in coverage, there’s a significant edge in backing Stevenson to go over his receiving yards prop. We’re playing the advantage outlined in the ScoreAndOdds algorithm and including it in our Same Game parlay.
Dalvin Cook Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
It’s different now that Justin Jefferson is in the mix, but at one point, Kirk Cousins was the king of check-downs. Although he’s got an abundance of talented wide receivers, he may have to revert to his easy outlets against an imposing New England pass defense. We’re anticipating increased usage from Dalvin Cook in the passing game, which should help him surpass his receiving yard total.
Last week’s loss was the first time since Week 6 that Cook wasn’t thrown to at least five times. In the three outings preceding that performance, Cook caught ten of 17 targets, compiling 27 or more receiving yards in two of three. That was the fourth and fifth time this year in which the three-time Pro Bowler had at least 18 receiving yards.
The Patriots defense presents a unique challenge for Cousins and the Vikings’ passing game. At 188.3, New England allows the fourth-fewest yards through the air, and they’ve amplified their efforts over their past few games. Since Week 8, opponents are down to 141.0 passing yards per game, with the New York Jets mustering a paltry 44 last week at Gillette Stadium.
Despite the solid defense, opposing running backs still find holes against the Pats. Over New England’s last four contests, Michael Carter, Deon Jackson, and Khalil Herbert have all had at least 13 receiving yards. Cook could be the latest to flourish as Cousins defers to the easy receptions rather than forcing it into the Patriots’ secondary.
Mac Jones Over 224.5 Passing Yards
Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones is coming off one of his best outings of the year. The second-year pivot completed a season-best 85.2% of his passes last week against the Jets and is poised for a repeat performance against a porous Vikings’ secondary.
Minnesota gives up a concerning amount of passing yards, allowing an average of 267.3, the second-most in the NFL. Moreover, they are trending in the wrong direction, with the Buffalo Bills and Cowboys totaling 637 yards over their last couple of games. That’s a sign of things to come, as we expect Bill Belichick to turn to his passing game more frequently on Thursday night.
Although Jones is throwing for fewer yards per game this year, he’s completing a higher percentage of passes while maintaining his yards per attempt metrics from his rookie season. The Alabama Crimson Tide product’s completion percentage is up to 68.7% in 2022, with 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
Bellichick senses blood in the water against the Vikings, and we’re anticipating he turns to his passing game more frequently in Week 12. More passing attempts should help Jones get over his passing yards prop.
Although minor, this play correlates with Stevenson’s receiving yards play. Jones continues to make good decisions with the ball and should have success throwing against a Vikes squad that has seemingly abandoned downfield coverage.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
As above, there’s an advantage to playing the three-leg SameGame parlay. The ScoreAndOdds projections imply that this wager should have come with a +354 price tag, whereas FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a more appealing +451. We’re riding that advantage into this inter-conference battle between the Vikings and Patriots.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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