This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the AFC Wild Card matchup featuring the Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. E.T. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
As you would expect of a 42-year-old quarterback with one receiver who can reliably separate from coverage, Tom Brady has produced disappointing box-score results on a near weekly basis, but he still owns the top median, floor, and ceiling projection in our DraftKings Showdown Models, as well as the top Projected Plus/Minus among players above the salary midpoint. Though Brady proved he’s not exactly dead yet with a 26-of-33, 271-yard, one-touchdown performance with no turnovers against Buffalo’s top-tier pass defense two weeks ago to clinch the AFC East and is going up against a Titans pass defense ranked 21st in schedule-adjusted efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Brady’s standing on this slate has more to do with his team’s league-best defense. The floor is simply lower for the more expensive Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry against a defense that allowed the fewest passing TDs (13) and tied for the fewest rushing TDs (7).
Going with Brady in the Captain spot over Tannehill or Henry allows you to still fit in the latter two along with Sony Michel with $4,600 left for the last two spots. The optimal way to employ those dollars is to roster two of the top three values on the slate according to our models in Nick Folk, who has scored at least 9 points in four of his last six games, and Anthony Firkser, who has run a route on 35-44% of dropbacks in each of the past three weeks.
On FanDuel, pricing forces you to fade one of the starting QBs or RBs. Despite being the second-most expensive player, Tannehill registers the lowest floor projection of the four in our models, so he makes the most sense to exclude. With Brady, Henry, and Michel locked in, there’s still enough room for Julian Edelman — who our models peg with the second-highest floor on the slate — if you also punt the last spot with Firkser.
Core GPP Plays
