Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cash Game Strategy
Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson face off in a battle that almost never came to be — New England had the chance to snag Jackson at No. 31 overall instead of Sony Michel in 2018.
Brady and Jackson’s floor and median projections are within tenths of a point of each other in our DraftKings Showdown Models, so the safest thing to do is split exposure between both in the Captain spot. Jackson is in a tough spot and has struggled at times vs. tough defenses, but his rushing floor has enabled him to top 14 DK points in every single one of his pro starts. Brady is seemingly safer on the surface, but with the newly-acquired Marcus Peters — who is ranked third among cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’ grades — alongside Marlon Humphrey (23rd) and a now-healthy Jimmy Smith, Baltimore has the potential to turn this game into an ugly affair resembling New England’s narrow 16-10 win in Buffalo in Week 4.
The Ravens posted a resounding 30-16 win over Seattle before the bye, becoming the first defense this season to pick off Russell Wilson and the first to hold Seattle to fewer than 21 points.
Mark Ingram is third in the NFL in carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line and has converted a league-leading six into scores. New England is ranked second in Football Outsiders‘ pass-defense DVOA but “just” eighth against the run, so Baltimore will likely to try keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.
Michel has handled 79% or more of the carries in three straight games and needs to be locked in as well.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens running back Mark Ingram (21)
A Brady-Jackson-Ingram-Michel core leaves $5,400-5,700, which is best spent on Rex Burkhead and Gus Edwards. Burkhead’s usage has been up and down, but he’s averaging a solid 8.4 touches per game. Edwards has been in the 6-9 touch range in each of Baltimore’s past five games.
On FanDuel, you have to fade either Ingram or Michel in order to fit in both QBs — so a Brady-Jackson-Michel core with Nick Folk, who has the seventh-highest median projection on the slate, and Burkhead. Splitting exposure between the two RBs is an option, too, with the optimal Ingram build being Brady, Jackson, Ingram, Burkhead and James White (toe, questionable), though White’s injury tag makes him dicier than usual despite a game script that otherwise sets up we for him.
Core GPP Plays
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