Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 7 Monday Night Football matchup featuring the New England Patriots at New York Jets at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Cash Game Strategy
The aim in cash games is to mitigate risk. Generally, the optimal way to go about it is to roster the starting QB from each team, as well as many RBs who project for significant snaps as you can fit, thereby maximizing projected touches and exposure to offensive TDs.
But the Patriots defense presents a different type of risk in the form of allowing a league-low 8.0 points per game. They’ve held opposing passers to a 1-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the air and could pose an even bigger mismatch if the Jets keep it on the ground.
So there are two options: The first is the more conventional route — a core of Tom Brady, James White, Sony Michel, Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell, with White, who has the top Projected Plus/Minus in our DraftKings Showdown Models, in the Captain spot along with a punt play $1,300 or cheaper. The top option in that case would be Gunner Olszewski, who played 50 snaps last week and serves as the team’s to punt returner.
The other option is to go full Patriots onslaught with Brady, White, Michel and Julian Edelman paired with Patriots DST in the Captain spot. Believe it or not, New England’s DST is the second-highest scoring player on the slate (20.7 DK PPG) and is yet to score below double digits. This build would enable you to field a lineup that devotes just 2.4% of the cap to Jets players. The top choice for that final spot is Vyncint Smith, a speedy former Texans wideout the Jets seem to want to work into their offense in a gadget role (he had a 19-yard rushing TD in his first game two weeks ago).
Ultimately, the former option will probably be more +EV over the long term, as the latter depends on Pats DST continuing to post outlier results, but the option is there if you’re looking to diversify.
Since FanDuel has only five roster spots instead of six, it’s not as optimal go to with a pure punt play, so the best move is to fade Darnold and go with Brady, Bell, Michel, White and Brandon Bolden, who has scored in three straight while serving in the Rex Burkhead (foot, out) role.
Core GPP Plays
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