Monday night football features the New England Patriots, who are fighting to get into the AFC playoff picture, and the Arizona Cardinals, who are looking to get their second home victory in their last 12 games. The Patriots are 1.5-point road favorites as this total sits at a relatively low 43.5 points. Each of the last six Cardinals games has gone over the total points line, so maybe this game can buck the primetime under trend with a potential shootout.
The Patriots are one game off a wild card spot after losing back-to-back games and failing to record 300 yards in either contest. They get a much easier test as the Cardinals have lost four of their last five games while allowing 32 points per game in their losses. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 24th in total DVOA this season per FootballOutsiders. Expect the Patriots to control the game, as they have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.
With their defense struggling, the Cardinals’ offense has a ton of pressure on them to perform and keep games competitive. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s job is in jeopardy if they continue to lose games down the stretch. With the playoffs seemingly out of reach and the Patriots’ defense ranking third in total DVOA, this could be yet another home loss for the Cardinals as they coast into the offseason. We’ll see how much fight is left in this team tonight.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Patriots vs. Cardinals Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
The top two props in our Parylay IQ are both for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Despite Stevenson’s over rushing yards hitting 84% of the time in our simulations, his receiving prop feels like the better bet seeing how much he has been involved in the passing game recently. Stevenson’s receiving yards prop hits at 73%.
With Damien Harris doubtful, it will continue to be the Stevenson show in the Patriots backfield. Stevenson is tied with Jakobi Meyers for the highest target share on the team at 18.2%, as he has a team-high 83.6% catch rate. Over the last six games, Stevenson has averaged 6.5 receptions on 7.7 targets for 49.5 receiving yards per game.
In the three games that Harris has missed this season, Stevenson is averaging 19 touches per game. The Patriots rank 26th in pace, so expect them to slow the game down and feed Stevenson on the ground and through the air as much as he can handle in this must-win game.
He has hit this over in four of his last six games with ease.
James Conner Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Flipping to the Cardinals’ side of the ball, running back James Conner is hitting this over receiving prop line in 72% of our simulations tonight. Conner may find difficulty on the ground in this matchup as the Patriots’ defense ranks third in rush DVOA. However, they rank seventh in pass DVOA, and the Cardinals need to move the ball somehow.
Conner has played in nine games this season and has at least three receptions in six of those games. He has gone over this 18.5 receiving prop line in five games while averaging exactly 19 receiving yards per game. This is a pretty good prop line, but with Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz out, Conner will get plenty of opportunities for dump-offs.
The bye week gave quarterback Kyler Murray more time to get 100% healthy as he was dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of two games. Conner failed to reach 19 or more receiving yards in both of those games that Murray was out. With a healthy Murray, expect the Cardinals to move the ball a little smoother through the air tonight.
Tyquan Thornton Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
Back to the Patriots’ offense — rookie wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has been very inconsistent as he works up and down the depth chart. In his seven games played this season, Thornton is averaging 16.7 receiving yards per game while catching 12 of his 24 total targets. Thornton only has one game where he has caught more than two passes.
Thornton has a 6.5% target share this season, as he ranks eighth on the team while only catching 50% of his targets. He has gone over this prop line in only two of his seven games (28.6%) games played. The Cardinals’ defense is getable on the perimeter, but Thornton ranked third in snaps behind fellow wide receivers Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has had a few promising games, but for the most part, it has been a rough year. Jones ranks 28th in the league in QBR and 26th in passing yards per game. He has thrown for over 300 yards just twice all season.
With Jones struggling and Thornton not being as involved as he should be, take his under receiving yards.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +212, while FanDuel is offering +572. That is exceptional value on this parlay!
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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