NFL Week 16 features a Sunday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Tennessee Titans, starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Derrick Henry at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,600 as opposed to $12,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
This game features a ton of fantasy studs, and this game also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The total sits at 54.5 points, the highest mark in Week 16, and the spread is at just 2.5 points. That means we should expect a competitive, high-scoring game that is usually a great formula for fantasy points.
Henry – aka the Big Dog – is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and has been absolutely dominant as of late. He’s logged at least 23.2 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, continuing to raise his game in December. Henry has played 20 December games throughout his career, averaging 96.7 rushing yards in those contests. He has also scored 22 total touchdowns.
The Packers represent a solid matchup for Henry. They’ve been subpar against the run this season, ranking just 21st in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. Henry owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just -1.5, but that stems from Green Bay’s ability to generate leads with its offense. As long as Tennessee can keep this game competitive, Henry should have no problem racking up yards.
Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive option on FanDuel, recently narrowing the gap in the MVP race. Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes is still the betting favorite, but I’m not sure he deserves the tag. Rodgers leads the league in a host of metrics, including passing touchdowns, touchdown rate, interception rate, QBR and quarterback rating. Mahomes has the clear edge in yards, but Rodgers has been better in most other categories.
He’s in a potential smash spot this week against the Titans. They have struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season, thanks to their inability to generate a pass rush. They rank dead-last in adjusted sack rate, and their best pass rusher — Jadaveon Clowney — is sidelined for the rest of the season after undergoing knee surgery.
Rodgers has also historically crushed as a home favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.05 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Davante Adams was uncharacteristically quiet in his last game. He failed to score a touchdown for the first time in nine games, finishing with just seven catches for 42 yards. Prior to that contest, he averaged 8.5 receptions for 111.4 yards per game over his last eight games.
It seems almost impossible that Adams will post back-to-back poor games, but he does have a tough matchup this week vs. Malcolm Butler. The defenders is expected to shadow Adams all over the field, and he’s been one of the best cover corners in the league. Butler got off to a slow start this season, but he’s allowed an average of just four catches for 41.25 yards over the past eight games. He’s also allowed just two touchdowns over that time frame.
Adams is certainly capable of finding success against anyone, but this should be one of his season’s toughest tests.
Ryan Tannehill is more of a game manager than a gunslinger, but he’s put up some huge fantasy totals recently. He’s gone for at least 31.56 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, including 37.02 DraftKings points last week against the Jaguars.
However, the Packers represent a much stiffer foe. Tannehill owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.7 on DraftKings, and the Packers have allowed just 16 points in two of their past three games.
Aaron Jones is the cheapest member of the stud group, but he might be the best play of the bunch. The Packers are expected to be without Jamaal Williams in this contest, which gives Jones a slightly safer workload than usual. Williams has been known to steal snaps from Jones, and it’s much less likely that A.J. Dillon will cut into his playing time. Jones finished with 20 carries in last week’s contest – which Williams left in the first half – and that was his highest mark of the entire season.
Jones should also be able to take advantage of this matchup. The Titans front four isn’t quite as bad against the run as they are against the pass, but the Packers’ offensive line still owns a 14% edge in the run game according to Pro Football Focus.
Midrange
The Titans top pass catchers headline this price range. It starts with A.J. Brown, who has put together an impressive sophomore season. He’s scored at least one touchdown in eight of his past 10 games, and he’s averaged 76.5 receiving yards per game over that time frame.
Corey Davis has quietly had a career breakout in his fourth NFL season. He was selected with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has mostly failed to live up to expectation. That said, he has already posted career highs in yards and touchdowns through just 12 games this season. He needs just six more catches to best his previous career-high in receptions as well.
Of the two, Brown stands out as the clear preferred option. He is a bit more expensive, but his individual matchup is far easier. Davis is expected to spend the majority of his time against Jaire Alexander – who is possibly the top corner in the league – while Brown has a much more winnable matchup vs. Kevin King. King owns a PFF-grade of just 50.4 this season, which gives Brown a significant advantage.
After Brown and Davis, there’s a significant drop off to the next tier. Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the next three priciest options on DraftKings, but it’s hard to trust any of them. That said, all three players have their merits on this slate.
Tonyan has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy football this season, but his fantasy value is largely touchdown-dependent. That hasn’t been a problem recently – he’s scored a touchdown in five straight games – but he is unlikely to return value if he doesn’t find the end zone vs. the Titans. Still, the Titans rank dead-last in DVOA against the TE position this season, so they probably aren’t the team to send Tonyan crashing back to reality. He also owns a correlation of +0.31 with Rodgers, so he makes a lot of sense in Packers’ stacks.
Lazard is the clear No. 2 wide receiver for the Packers, and he finished with six targets, five catches and 56 yards last week against the Panthers. If you think Adams has a subpar game against Butler, Lazard could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Valdes-Scantling is probably the least appealing option of the trio. His specialty is the deep ball, but the Titans rank 12th in DVOA against deep passes this season.
Finally, Jonnu Smith looks like an interesting option at his price tag. He’s been priced down to just $4,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he played on 93% of the Titans’ offensive snaps last week. That was his highest mark since back in Week 9. Smith finished with five catches for 52 yards in that contest, so this is a very fair salary for him.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses – These options are always viable in the single-game format. The kickers appear to be the superior option in this game given the total, and they own higher median and ceiling projections than the defenses in our NFL Models.
- Darrynton Evans: $2,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – Evans returned to the Titans lineup in Week 15, and he put together a solid fantasy day. That said, there was a lot of garbage time in that contest, which doesn’t figure to be the case this week. Even at such a minimal salary, he doesn’t offer much value on this slate.
- A.J. Dillon: $1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Dillon has the potential to see an increased workload if Williams is ruled out, but don’t expect him to command nearly as much as Williams. He played on just five of 62 snaps last week, but he did pick up 18 yards on his only carry.
- Cameron Batson: $1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – He’s operated as the clear No. 3 WR for the Titans recently, scoring his first career touchdown three weeks ago against the Browns. That said, he’s seen just one target over the past two weeks combined.
- Marcedes Lewis: $600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – He’s played on at least 30 snaps in each of his past four games, which makes him a cheap threat to score a touchdown in this contest.
