Packers vs. Bills Odds, Lines, and Predictions for Sunday Night Football

Packers vs. Bills Odds

• Packers Odds: +10.5 (-110)
• Buccaneers Odds: -10.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 47 
• Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 30
• TV Channel: NBC

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Green Bay Packers (3-4) and Buffalo Bills (5-1). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probability of 80%, leaving the Packers with a 20% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -10.5 with a Game Total of 47.0.

Buffalo’s primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 299 yards per game — #2-best in the NFL. They’ve succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.57. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #6 in yards per target (6.82). A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They’ve brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 19.5% of the time this season, #9-most of any team in the league. This Bills run defense has been anchored by their defensive ends, who grade out as the #6-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Bills check in at #2 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 327 yards per game (#2 in football). Their run game has ranked #8 with 4.79 yards per attempt on the ground.

Green Bay’s biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #10 in the league while allowing just 333 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #1-least yards per game: 192. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 25 yards per game (#4-best). Green Bay’s best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay’s pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #1-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #15 in the league in total yards per game. They’ve passed for 248 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they’ve ranked #15 with 4.52 yards per carry.

Packers Predictions

Aaron Rodgers – Over/Under 236.5 Passing Yards

• The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Analysis: Betting markets often underestimate the impact of weather in their lines. Passing overs in high wind often project as good values.

Aaron Rodgers – Over/Under 23.5 Passing Yards

• The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Analysis: Tight ends and running backs going up against good linebacker coverage will perform worse and may have a greater chance of going Under on their props..

Romeo Doubs – Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards

• The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Analysis: This stat holds extra predictive value because THE BLITZ has adjusted it for context (including opposing offense, weather, down, distance, field position, and more).

Bills Predictions

Josh Allen – Over/Under 40.5 Rushing Yards

• THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this week (34.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played).

Analysis: The more carries a player receives, the more opportunities he has to accrue rushing stats.

Josh Allen – Over/Under 276.4 Rushing Yards

• Josh Allen has passed for many more yards per game (326.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).

Analysis: This stat holds extra predictive value because THE BLITZ has adjusted it for context (including opposing defense, weather, down, distance, field position, and more).

Josh Allen – Over/Under 23.5 Completions

• The Buffalo Bills have utilized play action on 33.7% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Analysis: Teams that utilize novel concepts keep the defense guessing, making all of their plays more effective and giving all of their props a greater chance to go Over.

Packers-Bills Betting Trends

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 44% ROI)