Last year, DraftKings took DFS to another level by offering a GPP that boasted a first-place prize of $1,000,000. It turned out to be so popular that they did it again, and again, and again – it ended up running 10 weeks (this is the low entry we’re talking about; Week 14 had a millionaire tournament, but it was only open to players who qualified) during the NFL season, beginning in Week 5.
After DK announced last week that their first week will be even bigger, to the tune of a $2,000,000 first-place prize (and $10 million in total prizes), I thought it would be a good time to look at the history of winners. Of course, it’s a very small sample size, so take from it what you will, but it can’t hurt to look at the average ownership of each position of last year’s winners.
Anyway, I compiled the table and here it is:
Interestingly, I was a bit surprised at the high ownership in just about every lineup – I think this goes with the idea of “be contrarian, not stupid.” There were definitely contrarian plays – at the bottom of the table you can see the lowest-owned player for each lineup – but there were also chalk plays in most lineups. The winning ones had a nice mix of value and low-ownership upside.
The average on the right shows that the lowest-owned position was quarterback. We saw winning lineups with Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and this perhaps hints that using your money on higher-variance guys, as opposed to high-floor guys in QBs, is the way to go in large tournaments like these.
In case you’re wondering, the last column on the right (Avg by Highest) is just sorted by ownership of position. DraftKings lineups don’t automatically put your highest-owned RB in the top RB, for example, so this shows that. Or to put it more simply, the first RB in that column is the lineup’s highest-owned RB.
So, on average, the winning lineup’s highest-owned RB and WR were, on average, above 20% owned. I wasn’t expecting that, and it again shows you can take chalky guys if you aren’t going chalk everywhere. Remember, the chalk is that way for a reason – they’re typically in a position that’s really advantageous. I wouldn’t necessarily fade an obvious value (though again, this is a small sample) for the sake of being contrarian if it’s killing the value of your lineup – you can be contrarian elsewhere.
Just about every pro will tell you to use a high-ceiling player in your Flex spot, and this is shown in these lineups – all 10 used a wide receiver, which is maybe the highest-variance and highest-ceiling position. I think it’s definitely okay and probably even optimal to use running backs as your Flex in cash games, but in big tournaments, I’d definitely go WR most of the time.
The D/ST ownership percentages are higher I expected. I wrote about statistical correlations to D/ST fantasy value last week and I think the things that are highly correlated (forcing turnovers and facing bad QBs, for example) are ones that you can see coming. Again, value plays are that for a reason – maybe don’t be contrarian with your defense in GPPs.
The season is only about a month away and the salaries on the big sites are posted. For the first time ever, a DFS player (at around 1am on September 15th) will instantly make $2,000,000 playing fantasy football. Maybe it’ll be you!
But I hope it’s me.
