A Meditation on Volume
Like a great shampoo for those thinning a bit up top (like me), volume is everything for running backs in DFS. Confession: I’ve had that one holstered for a while.
I’ve talked about the value of efficiency when looking for big plays, but it’s true that game script and touches can definitely make up for inefficiencies and lack of talent. This is why we rely so heavily on Vegas data in DFS: A lead RB whose team is favored can reasonably be expected to get (maybe more than) his fair share of touches.
Home Favorites
How does volume and the favorite/underdog split relate to Plus/Minus and the home/away split?
Using data from our Trends tool, the following chart provides the Plus/Minus values of FanDuel RBs according to Vegas and location of game. I set a threshold of 10-plus projected points. Based on the research I have done highlighting the value of complementary running backs, I found that starters and complementary backs have historically averaged 12.44 and 10.57 FD points per game. Thus, a threshold of 10-plus projected points seemed like a reasonable threshold.
Notice that the RBs playing at home as favorites perform the best relative to their salaries. The guys with the best circumstances do the best.
But what about matchups?
What happens when a home-favorite RB is playing a team that historically is good at limiting the production of opposing RBs?
Are Matchups Overrated?
In general, we would prefer to roster RBs playing against teams that struggle to stop the run. But are there times when it makes sense to roster RBs when they have tough matchups? — maybe when they are home favorites and projected for volume and positive game script?
The following chart uses our Opponent Rating metric to help visualize how important matchups really are from a Plus/Minus perspective when broken down Vegas data and game location. Opponent Rating is a percentile rank for the Plus/Minus a defense allows to a particular position. From the offensive player’s perspective, a higher number represents a more favorable matchup.
What stands out right away is that RBs in a top quintile matchup should at least be considered regardless of what Vegas says. Underdog RBs historically excel against soft defenses. That makes some sense. Receptions are worth more than carries, and these RBs are likely to see an increase in targets in these matchups, both because their teams might need to throw the ball to catch up and also because their teams are incentivized anyway to throw instead of run because of the tough RB matchup. It’s also possible that these RBs are priced down by FD because of their matchups and the negative Vegas data.
What Else Do We See?
The rest of the distribution is relatively flat, with home favored running backs performing well almost regardless of matchup. Road favorites performed the worst in tough matchups, highlighting how important playing at home is.
Ultimately, from a Plus/Minus perspective, a running back in a poor matchup isn’t necessarily returning less value than a player in a favorable matchup.
For the purposes of illustration, let’s talk about Spencer Ware in Week 3. Ware is a home favorite, but he’s facing a Jets defensive front that is one of the best in the league. Based on his point projection, should we value Ware any differently this week than we would if he were facing a defense ranked in the bottom half in the league against RBs?
Playing against a tough opponent historically hasn’t proven to be much worse for a home favorite than playing against an easier one — and the ownership has been lower, which could make a difference in guaranteed prize pools. Just because Ware has a tough matchup doesn’t mean that he should be faded. It just means that he might not do quite as well as he would in a softer matchup. He’s still a RB favored at home. If he has a big game and is underowned, he could be a GPP winner.
Home Favorites and the Spread
Obviously, not all home favorites should be valued equally. The difference between being favored by a point and two touchdowns can have a huge effect on game script and volume. This last chart digs into this topic a bit deeper.
Unsurprisingly, heavily favored home RBs provide by far the most value, but even RBs whose teams are favored to win by just four points can still provide immense value. Strong RB production can be found at the home-favorite extreme, but it can also be found throughout the spectrum.
Takeaways
Being a home favorite creates a lot of value for a RB. Home favorites are likelier to see more volume, which in turn seems to matter more than degree of matchup. We should probably not move off of a player like Ware in a tough matchup if he is a home favorite and projected for volume. That is far more important in terms of salary-based production.
