On a slate like tonight’s, you don’t need to worry about rostering a really low-owned pitcher. You just want someone who won’t single-handedly screw up your night. And without a pitcher who sniffs $9,000 on FanDuel, that might be tough to find.
This is On The Contrary — your weekly guide to finding a low-rostered chucker with tournament-winning potential.
A Look Back
Oh, Jon Gray. The two times I’ve been burned in this column, it has been by my hometown Rockies. In DFS, you can’t hold a bias and meet your full potential as a player. I won’t be afraid to go back to Rockies pitchers when the time is right, but today’s not the right time.
But, truthfully, what bothered me more than Gray’s performance was that he wasn’t all that low-owned.
I’m not expecting to hit on each column. I’m trying to make recommendations that help you win guaranteed prize pools, not merely finish in the top half or even the top 10 percent. If you’re not finishing in the top three percent in a GPP, you might as well play cash games, where you’ll have a higher likelihood of winning a prize amount similar to what you’re getting from GPPs.
In a GPP, there’s no difference between scoring -8 points and barely meeting salary-based expectations. Either way, you aren’t winning the GGP.
If you ain’t first, you’re last.
Today’s High-Owned Group
First, let me say that no pitcher will be “popular” tonight.
As a -130 favorite going against the Orioles, who are implied to score a slate-low 3.6 runs, Matt Wisler will be one of the “popular” options. He’ll give DFSers more than enough salary cap room to stack the Red Sox and Royals.
FanDuelers, I presume, will also gravitate toward Danny Duffy. He’s the biggest favorite on the slate at -166 and is implied to give up only 3.7 runs to the Chicago White Sox. Of course, he has been treacherous lately because of his pitch limit, lasting only three and four innings in his last two starts, respectively. (Grammatically, I’m using “respectively” correctly — but we all know there’s nothing respectable about those two outings.)
I hope the masses flock to Duffy today, because he could easily burn lineups by the third inning.
As for me, I’ll have exposure to Lance McCullers.
Why I (sort of) Like Him
McCullers will throw his third big league outing of the season today against the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched well against Texas in his last start but gave up a two-run double to Prince Fielder in the third inning. (I can’t believe I’m rostering someone who gives up doubles to Fielder.)
McCullers is an average pitcher with average pitches, but that’s kind of what we’re working with in this slate. He has strikeout potential, with seven Ks in six innings against the Rangers. In his final eight starts of the 2015 season, McCullers had only two in which he didn’t strike out at least one batter per inning.
McCullers is on a home stand, and per our Trends tool we know that home stands give pitchers a bump. The Astros have been home for six games now, and pitchers starting for teams that have been at home 5-7 games have a Plus/Minus of +1.41.
If you’ve read this series before, you know that I won’t pick a pitcher unless he has a K prediction toward the top of the slate. McCullers is projected to get a respectable 6.8 strikeouts, trailing only opposing pitcher Kevin Gausman. If we factor his 6.8 K prediction into the previous trend, we get a nice +4.33 Plus/Minus with a respectable count of 368.
Note the Consistency of 60 percent. I once read that on a slate with little pitching, being super contrarian isn’t all that important:
“You don’t need to worry about rostering a really low-owned pitcher. You just want someone who won’t single-handedly screw up your night.”
That’s right — I took a page from Matthew Freedman’s book and quoted myself, but I took it a step further and did so from inside the same article. Top that, Freedman. [Editor’s Note: 1) Already did. 2) “Nobody has ever quoted me back to me before.”]
Other Notables
- McCullers was the beneficiary of some early line movement. That can certainly change, so be sure to frequent our Vegas page.
- He currently has six Pro Trends, leading all pitchers on the slate.
- He’s a better value on FanDuel with an $8,000 salary and a 75-percent Bargain Rating, but his $8,600 salary shouldn’t scare you away at DraftKings.
- I couldn’t find anything saying that McCullers will be on a limited pitch count due to his prior injury, so hopefully we’ll be safe there.
- McCullers doesn’t have pretty advanced stats. He has dropped a bit of velocity and been out of the zone a bit more than normal. Also, opponents are hitting the ball farther and harder. The first two points, though, I attribute to working back from an injury.
- He’s the best pitcher on several of the Player Models, including the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
