I’m digging deep into the Player Models for this contrarian recommendation. Don’t read on without serious fortitude . . .
What if I said that I had a guy who A) will likely be rostered in fewer than one percent of lineups, B) has the ability to put up 40 FanDuel points, and C) costs only $5,700?
Have I piqued your interest?
This is the second article in the series On The Contrary, in which I look for a pitcher who will be low-rostered and has the potential to be a tournament winner. Last week I featured Jose Fernandez, who was rostered in about 18 percent of lineups.
(I know that you already read the title and know who the pitcher is, but play along. It’ll be more fun that way.)
Last chance to back out . . .
Chris Rusin of the Colorado Rockies. I said it. He’s certainly not a sexy play today. I doubt that you’ll read any other articles about why you should roster him (or at least give it consideration).
He has worked back into the starting rotation after he suffered a strained tendon in his middle finger in spring training. He has thrown well this season with a 1.69 earned run average in 16 innings, and he looked good in hitter-friendly Chase Field last week when he took a no decision against the Diamondbacks. In that game, he worked five scoreless innings before manager Walt Weiss pulled him. He allowed one hit, struck out six batters, and walked three. With another game to help him get back into shape, Rusin’s pitch limit should be raised significantly.
Today, he pitches at San Francisco’s AT&T Park, a.k.a. Pitchers’ Paradise, with a 100 Park Factor. Given how well he did in his last outing at Chase Field (a.k.a. Coors Lite, per Mitch Block) and how he did last year at Coors Field (where he had two complete games), I have enough confidence to warrant rostering him in some lineups.
Per our Trends tool, one can see that the average underdog pitcher with a price comparable to Rusin’s tends to do well when playing in a friendly park:
The above trend should be treated cautiously because of it’s small sample size, but given the Upside of hitting on a potential Black Swan pitcher likely to be rostered in very few lineups, this trend also deserves attention.
Rusin has drawbacks, but that’s to be expected of any contrarian pick. According to PurpleRow.com, Rusin said he has issues with his finger in cold weather. That article was published on April 30, so his finger presumably has improved since then, but the current weather forecast has the temperature at 56 degrees with a 45 percent chance of precipitation. Rusin is not a tournament play for the timid.
Rostering Rusin, if you dare be so bold, will leave you plenty of salary cap space to pick just about anyone else your heart fancies. His $5,700 FanDuel salary leaves you $3,663 left per player, and at DraftKings you could pair Rusin’s $5,800 with Jacob deGrom at $11,400 and still have $4,100 left per player.
The High-Ownership Pitchers
I believe deGrom will likely be the highest-owned pitcher in tournaments today, with his -180 moneyline at $10,800 (FanDuel) and $11,400 (DraftKings). With a slate that features a lot of slight favorites, I think that DFSers will chase wins with Toronto’s J.A. Happ (-166) and the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks (-148). I’m not saying that they are bad plays, but they will have elevated ownership levels in my estimation.
Another I Considered
I gave serious consideration to Zack Greinke. He’s a sizeable underdog at +133, so he will likely be under-rostered. He has Upside (as his $10,000 salary suggests), but I spotted a few too many red flags — and if I’m using a pitcher with red flags I want him to be cheaper than $10,000. Hence, Rusin.
