The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Five teams are implied for 3.3 or more goals tonight. One potential reason? Four of the NHL’s worst in terms of goals allowed are playing on Thursday. So there’s no lack of high-end options or favorable matchups.
Center
- Connor McDavid vs. St. Louis: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $9,200
- Steven Stamkos vs. Dallas: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,700
- John Tavares vs. Carolina: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,200
- Evgeni Malkin @ Ottawa: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,400
- Sidney Crosby @ Ottawa: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $8,700
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov vs. Dallas: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,000
- Vladimir Tarasenko @ Edmonton: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,400
- Alex Ovechkin @ Colorado: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,600
Defense
- Erik Karlsson vs. Pittsburgh: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,400
- Brent Burns vs. Florida: DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $6,900
- Alex Pietrangelo @ Edmonton: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $6,400
Stamkos and Kucherov have a ludicrous 0.80 correlation coefficient in our Models, and over the past month, both players rank in the top three for points per 60 minutes of ice time (pts/60) among those on tonight’s slate. The Lightning own today’s highest implied total (3.5 goals), and they host a Stars team that has allowed nine goals over its past two games. Stacking both superstars is expensive, and they’re probably best used together exclusively in guaranteed prize pools. The price is high, but the payoff could be huge: Kucherov and Stamkos lead the slate with 11 and 10 DraftKings Pro Trends, respectively.
Ovechkin has always been a high-volume shooter, averaging 4.93 shots per game in his 12-year career, but goal-scoring regression was inevitable after his hot start this season. He scored an absurd seven goals in fewer than five full regulation periods to start the year but has just four goals over the past month. This could be an opportunity for Ovi to break through against a Colorado team with the fifth-most goals allowed and eighth-worst penalty-kill percentage. Ovechkin has scored 44.85 percent of his goals on the man advantage over the past three seasons and is in the 99th percentile in power play shots per game over the past month. The Capitals’ implied total has already risen from 2.9 to 3.4 goals today, the largest movement so far on the slate.
We discussed Burns – and his inevitable positive regression – extensively on NHL Inside the Lab, and per usual, paying up for defensemen makes a lot of sense. His 5.83 shots + blocks per game over the past month trails only Shea Weber (5.85), and excluding the past week, Burns’ salary hasn’t fallen below $7,000 on DraftKings since Nov. 14, 2015. Burns has yet to score a goal this year, but he remains one of the best peripheral options to build any team around. Over the past two seasons, Burns’ 56 goals (0.34 per game) is 19 more than any defensemen and his 0.92 points per game trails only Karlsson.
Values
Cody Ceci (DraftKings – $3,200, FanDuel – $3,500): If you can’t spend big for Karlsson today, Ceci should offer a nice peripheral stat floor on the same team. The upside is likely minuscule, but his price is pretty appealing: He ranks in the 97th percentile ranking in shots+blocks over the past month.
Tim Heed (DraftKings – $4,100, FanDuel – $4,000): Heed is a good option if Burns is too pricey for your liking. Heed — a forward-turned-defenseman who plays on the Sharks’ first power-play line — excels on the man advantage (98th percentile in power-play shots), and Florida owns the second-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league (72.6 percent). Heed also has a solid peripheral floor, ranking the 86th percentile in shots + blocks per game over the past month.
One-Timers
Shea Weber (DraftKings – $6,000, FanDuel – $5,200): His 1.2 shots per game over his past five probably makes him too risky in cash games, but Weber is egregiously underpriced on FanDuel ($5,200) relative to his upside and pristine matchup against Arizona. His 5.85 shots + blocks per game leads the slate.
Patric Hornqvist (DraftKings – $5,700, FanDuel – $5,900): Typically, wingers block far fewer shots than defensemen and centermen. That’s part of what makes players like Vladislav Namestnikov and Hornqvist top-20 percentile skaters in blocks over the past month, an incredibly valuable way to gain cheap exposure to the studs on Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Of power play wingers, only Max Pacioretty has more shots + blocks per game over the past month than Hornqvist and Namestnikov.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Los Angeles Kings:
Ownership tends to align closely with the Vegas lines, so the Lightning, Maple Leafs, and Canucks could conceivably be chalk plays today. Just outside of that top tier, the Kings could provide a ton of leverage at a discount. The Bruins own the fourth-highest Corsi-Against over the past month, and the Kings have the fourth-highest Corsi-For over that same time period. Doughty and Kopitar rank in the top-10 percentile in shots over the past month, with Brown and Iafallo close behind in the top-15 percentile. Iafallo may not skate on the top power-play unit, but at just $3,600, he’s a cheap way to further correlate the Kings top even-strength line.
With the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate, Montreal rates as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel:
Weber and Shaw are far better values on FanDuel – both own a 98 percent Bargain Rating or higher – so Pacioretty at $7,200 is slightly more palatable. The Canadiens also have the slate’s top matchup expectation against a Coyotes team that has allowed most goals (3.90 per game) and own the fifth-worst penalty-kill percentage (76.8 percent) in the league. Montreal is a difficult team to correlate at even strength and on the power plays, so there may be more value in adding a goaltender to your stack instead of a fourth skater. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to accrue a win.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, and the slate features some notable home favorites:
- Montreal -190 vs. Arizona
- Tampa Bay -173 vs. Dallas
- Los Angeles -170 vs. Boston
With a sparkling .957 save percentage in relief of Carey Price, Charlie Lindgren will start for the Canadiens. Montreal hasn’t given him a ton of breathing room, averaging just 2.16 goals per game in front of him, but that could change today against Arizona. Chuck is a viable option in cash games due to the high likelihood of a win, but he is also the second-most expensive option on DraftKings at a position that historically makes sense to pay down.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will start for the Lightning, but his peripheral stat ceiling could be limited even if he gets the win. Tampa Bay is a strong defensive team, with the fourth-lowest Corsi-Against on the slate over the past month. However, the Lightning have scored the most goals in the league while allowing the third-fewest and should be in a decent spot at home against Dallas.
At the time of this writing Los Angeles has yet to announce a starter, but whoever is between the pipes stands out from a situational perspective at home with -170 moneyline odds against Boston. The Kings have allowed the lowest Corsi on the slate this year, but over the past month, they’ve have actually allowed the fourth-highest.
Thomas Greiss is expected to start for the Islanders and is an intriguing target today as a -111 moneyline favorite. Carolina owns the highest Corsi-For expectation tonight, which is part of the reason Greiss has the third-highest save prediction on the slate (32.48).
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
