The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has an 11-game main slate at 7:00 pm ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features three teams implied for 3.4 or more goals, so unsurprisingly there’s no lack of high-end options:
Center
- Sidney Crosby vs. Winnipeg: DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $9,000
- Connor McDavid vs. Dallas: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $9,000
- Auston Matthews vs. Carolina: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,000
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov vs. Detroit: DraftKings – $8,200, FanDuel – $9,200
- Alex Ovechkin @ Vancouver: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,800
- Jamie Benn @ Edmonton: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $8,300
Defense
- Erik Karlsson vs. Philadelphia: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,300
- Brent Burns @ Boston: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,200
- Kris Letang vs. Winnipeg: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $6,800
Of all rookies over the past decade with at least 40 games played, Matthews in 2016 had the most shots per game (3.4) and even-strength goals (32). His shots have regressed to 3.1 per game this year, but his points per game (PPG) have increased from 0.84 to 1.33, which has kept his fantasy value afloat. Toronto is leading the league with 4.44 goals per game and they are at home today against a Carolina team that has allowed a league-low 19 power play opportunities. That would limit most player’s ceilings, but only 19.1 percent of Matthews’ goals have come on the man advantage, and Toronto’s 3.4 implied goal total is third highest on the slate.
With eleven goals in ten games — failing to score only once — Kucherov is now the highest-priced skater on both sites despite playing four of his last five games on the road. Throughout this ridiculous run, Kucherov has seen an ownership at 23.7 percent at home versus 8.9 percent on the road, and the Lightning host a Red Wings squad that’s in the top half of goals and shots against this year. You can stack him with Steven Stamkos, as they have an unreal 0.74 correlation coefficient in our Models, and over the past month both players are top-five on the slate in points per 60-minutes of ice time (pts/60).
With the highest implied total on the slate (3.7), Pittsburgh will be extremely popular at home against a Winnipeg team that has allowed the fifth-most goals this year and owns the second-worst penalty kill in the league. We talked extensively about the Penguins today on Inside the Lab, and Letang stands out as one of the top ways to get exposure to this offense. Over the last year he falls in the 97th percentile in shots+blocks per game, 96th percentile in time on ice (TOI), and 95th percentile in power play points.
Values
Patrick Maroon: Kailer Yamamoto is scratched today and will be replaced on the top line with Leon Draisaitl. With a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Maroon makes sense as a pivot play at $4,700 for cheap McDavid exposure. Maroon isn’t a special player, but he has averaged a solid 3.13 shots+blocks per game over the past month and leads all wingers with a 23.63 Corsi for over the past month. McJesus can drastically inflate the production of those around him even if they do not skate together on the power play.
Alec Martinez: He has just three points all season, but he trails only Brent Burns with his 6.0 shots+blocks over the past month, and his 21.33 Corsi for is third highest at the position. At $4,600 on both sites, Martinez should be a viable route to peripheral stats at a discount facing a Montreal team that has allowed the most shots in the league.
One-Timers
John Carlson: He is tenth overall in shots+blocks this year and has 17 shots over his last two games. Over the past month, the power play production is extremely concentrated between Carlson and Alex Ovechkin with 1.33 and 2.22 PP shots/gm respectively. With an implied total of 3.0, the Capitals are outside the top tier, but Carlson carries immense upside on the road given his egregious price and impressive peripheral stats.
Phil Kessel: Per usual, the Penguins are priced way up, but Kessel has the goal-scoring ability to break a slate wide open, and the first power play’s 90.5 line rating is by far the highest on the slate. He trails only Ovechkin and Mike Hoffman today with his 4.1 shots per game over the past month, but Kessel has seen more PP TOI than both, and the matchup against the Jets directly favors the power play.
Notable Stacks
Unsurprisingly, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Penguins are top-12 in goals per game and top-five in shots per game. They have the second-best power play and have drawn the third-most power play opportunities this year. It’s an eruption spot against a Jets team that has allowed the third-fewest penalties this year but has still allowed the 10th-most power play goals. Fading Crosby is scary, but correlating primarily with the Penguins second line and gaining savings with Patric Hornqvist could be wise.
On FanDuel, one of the top four-man stacks belongs to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
If ownership is concentrated primarily around the Penguins it may be tough for people to pay up for Tampa Bay, which is in a favorable matchup at home against a Detroit team allowing the fifth-most power play opportunities this year. Regardless of the Red Wings’ sixth-best penalty kill no one has shown an ability to shut down Tampa Bay’s No. 1 power play. It’s early, but Stamkos and Kucherov sit atop the points race with 20 and 17 points through ten games.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but the slate lacks a massive favorite:
- Tampa Bay -195 vs. Detroit
- New York Rangers -177 vs. Arizona
- Pittsburgh -170 vs. Winnipeg
Andrei Vasilevskiy will start for the Lightning, and Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most shots this year. The Red Wings don’t shoot a ton, but they’ve also scored the ninth-fewest goals per game this year. Vasilevskiy is cash-viable, but he is also the most expensive option on DraftKings and trails only Braden Holtby on FanDuel.
The Rangers turn to their second-string goaltender, Ondrej Pavelec, whose peripheral situation looks less favorable than Vasilevskiy’s. New York has allowed the seventh-fewest shots on goal per game along with the eighth-most goals. The Coyotes have scored the third-fewest goals this year but aren’t a team that can save a tough performance with a high volume of shots on goal.
As the third-largest moneyline favorite, Matt Murray gets the nod for a Penguins team that is elite on offense but has also allowed the second-most goals this year. Correlating your Pittsburgh stacks with Murray makes sense, but he is projected for the third-fewest saves on the slate against a Jets team that has the third-fewest shots per game this year. If he doesn’t get the win Murray could struggle to hit value.
Carey Price stands out at home with -120 moneyline odds against the Kings. Montreal is middle of the pack in shots allowed but Los Angeles has the sixth-most shots per game this season.
John Gibson is an intriguing tournament option with a +118 moneyline in Florida, and goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs. The Ducks have allowed the second-most shots this year, and Gibson leads the slate with a 36.67 save prediction.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
