The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a nine-game main slate at 7:00 pm ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features no defensemen priced over $6,700 on DraftKings, with a majority of the high-end options on the road.
Center
- Tyler Seguin: Center, $7,900 @ Arizona
- Connor McDavid: Center, $7,800 @ Chicago
- Steven Stamkos: Center, $7,600 @ Columbus
Winger
- Vladimir Tarasenko: Wing, $7,700 @ Colorado
- Brad Marchand: Wing, $7,600 vs. Vancouver
- Nikita Kucherov: Wing, $7,500 @ Columbus
Defense
- Alex Pietrangelo: Defense, $6,700 @ Colorado
- Erik Karlsson: Defense, $6,700 vs. New Jersey
- John Klingberg: Defense, $6,200 @ Arizona
As the highest-owned DraftKings player in Tuesday tournaments — against these same Coyotes — Seguin bailed out investors with a late assist, but for the first time all season he registered fewer than five shots on goal. Going back to Seguin and the Stars tonight makes a lot of sense, as Dallas has the slate’s highest implied total at 3.4 goals on the road against Arizona. The Coyotes have averaged the most goals against per game (4.17 GA/Gm) and the seventh-most shots against per game (34.5 SA/Gm) through six games. Arizona was also top-three in both categories in 2016. The biggest concern with Dallas is the potential lack of power play opportunities. The Coyotes have started the year allowing the third-fewest power play opportunities (3.0 TSH/Gm), and the Stars have drawn the second fewest (3.2 PPO/Gm). Regardless, Seguin’s recent peripheral stats put him in consideration: He’s second in the slate with 6.33 shots+blocks over the past month.
Kucherov looks like one of the most dynamic players in hockey with eight goals already this season. He’s the first player to score in seven consecutive games to start a season since Keith Tkachuk (2008-2009). Stacking him with Stamkos is expensive, but so far this year it’s been worth it, as they have an unreal 0.74 correlation coefficient in our Models. However, they have a brutal matchup on the road against a Blue Jackets team that has allowed the third-fewest goals (2.17 GA/Gm) and seventh-fewest shots (30.2 SA/Gm) and is the least penalized team in the league (2.3 TSH/Gm).Probably best used in guaranteed prize pools, Kucherov and Stamkos lead the slate with 11 and 10 DraftKings Pro Trends.
Karlsson made his season debut on Tuesday after undergoing foot surgery in the offseason. The coaching staff eased him back in with 22:25 time on ice (TOI) as he registered just two shots and one block (although he did hit the crossbar in the third period). Recency bias will likely have people hesitant to roster Karlsson, but his price hasn’t been lower in his last 55 games. Karlsson’s career average TOI is 25:51 per game and he hasn’t fallen lower than 26 minutes per game since 2011. Sooner or later he’ll progress to his normal TOI, and he leads the slate with 5.43 shots+blocks per game.
Values
Jake DeBrusk: With a 95 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, he’s underpriced at $3,800 given his 3.4 shots+blocks per game and role on the second line and power play unit for Boston. Playing last season in the AHL for the Providence Bruins, he finished second on the team in scoring and eighth in the league in shots. Boston owns the second-highest implied total (3.2) at home against the Vancouver, which was third worst on the penalty kill last year but has improved from 76.7 percent to 88.5 percent (fourth best).
Ivan Provorov: If you’re looking for peripheral stats at a discount, defenseman is often a great place to start because of blocked shots. On the second power play unit, Provorov has 4.19 shots+blocks per game over the past year and has spiked to 5.67 per game to start the season. The Flyers own the sixth-highest implied total in the slate (2.9). Nashville has allowed the tenth-most power plays in the league and Philadelphia has drawn the ninth most this year.
One-Timers
Mike Hoffman: With how slowly pricing adjusts in NHL, get used to seeing some of the same names in these breakdowns. At $5,400 on DraftKings, Hoffman is comically underpriced, as he leads all wingers on the slate with 4.67 shots per game. Rick Nash also makes sense in this price range; we talked about him extensively on NHL Inside the Lab.
Mark Giordano: He’s the only player in the slate with more shots+blocks per game this season than Seguin. At $5,400 on DraftKings, Giordano can provide both salary relief and a strong peripheral floor with far less ownership. The Flames are tied with the Flyers for the sixth-highest implied total on the slate (2.9). Defensemen at comparable salaries, implied totals, and peripheral stats have historically averaged a +1.17 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 60 percent Consistency Rating.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Ottawa Senators.
Tonight the Senators are at home implied for 3.1 goals (second on the slate) and will face a Devils team allowing the fifth-most shots and taking the most penalties in the league. Hoffman may not skate with Kyle Turris and Zack Smith at even strength, but there should be plenty of opportunity on the power play against the 5-1 Devils.
On FanDuel, one of the top three-man stacks belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks.
With so much to like at the top end of the salary spectrum, the Blackhawks’ mid-ranged options could easily go under-owned at home in a great matchup against the Oilers. Their implied total has already moved from 2.9 to 3.1, and Brandon Saad and Richard Panik are both point-per-game players with over three shots+blocks per game and 91 and 88 percent Bargain Ratings. The Oilers have allowed the seventh-most goals and their 68.2 percent penalty kill is by far the worst in the league this year.
Goalies
Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel goalie scoring, so it makes sense that ownership skews toward the heavy favorites.
- Boston -173 vs. Vancouver
- Ottawa -155 vs. New Jersey
- Dallas -146 @ Arizona
Anton Khudobin will start for the Bruins, but his peripheral stat ceiling could be limited even if he gets the win. Boston has allowed the third-fewest shots on goal this year and the tenth-most goals per game. The Canucks had the fewest shots for per game (27.7) last year, although they did score the second-fewest goals per game (2.17). This year Vancouver has the third-fewest shots per game but has scored the sixth-fewest goals.
The Senators will send Craig Anderson between the pipes against a New Jersey team in the bottom five in shots per game both last year and this year. Ottawa has played great defense, allowing the second-fewest shots per game (28.5) with the second-best penalty kill percentage (94.1) in the league. Like Khudobin, Anderson could be in trouble if he doesn’t get the win since he has a low peripheral floor.
No goaltender with top-three moneyline odds today is especially appealing from a shots-against perspective. Ben Bishop will be in net for Dallas, but the Stars have allowed 26.4 shots per game this year, which is the fewest in the NHL. Arizona is only slightly below average in regards to shots per game, so that’s positive, but Bishop looks thin on the road for cash games.
Sergei Bobrovsky stands out at home with -136 moneyline odds. He’s a natural leverage play off of the people chasing history with Kucherov, and the Blue Jackets are quietly 5-1 to start the season. They’ve allowed the third-fewest goals and taken the fewest penalties all while allowing the fifth-most shots per game. Get your exposure on DraftKings, where Bobrovsky owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
