The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Elias Pettersson ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) at Chicago Blackhawks
Before starting, there’s the obvious caveat here that Conner McDavid is on this slate, and he rates out with a monster Ceiling Projection in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs, which is +2.5 points higher than the next best center on this slate. With that said, there’s also a leverage opportunity to be had on a player who will be very popular, and if you’re thinking of pivoting, then I like looking at the Canucks Elias Pettersson.
Pettersson is fifth in Ceiling Projection on this slate and has the highest ranking in that category for a player under $7,000 in salary on DraftKings — where he’s also got a 75% Bargain Rating. He also rates out better than McDavid in Pts/Sal.
Pettersson has cooled off in his last two games but gets a solid matchup here against Chicago, who has already given up the fifth-most quality scoring chances against and features one of the weakest goalie tandems in the league.
Top Value
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
The Oilers come into this game with the Coyotes with the biggest implied goal total on the slate at 3.5 and are also hefty -183 favorites. This is a spot you’ll want exposure to regardless of how you decide to maneuver around the Oilers’ big names. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (who is actually listed as a wing on FanDuel) is a great value you can target here to get such exposure.
Nugent-Hopkins is still a part of the Oilers’ first-line powerplay unit as well and rates out with the seventh-best Ceiling Projection on this slate at center, despite being priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s got the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus (expected point vs. his salary-based expected points). He is also very stackable with both McDavid or Draisaitl in this spot, given his power-play exposure.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
It’s a tight battle at the top of the wing posistion tonight. Still, the Avalanche’s Mikko Rantanen rates out as both the best upper-tier value on DraftKings and the player with the best overall Ceiling Projection in the Projected Points Model for FanDuel as well.
Rantanen rates out in the top 5% in a lot of long-term trends, including CorsiFor and Shot Prediction. Short term, he’s picked up right where he left off as he’s landed a point in all three of the Avalanche’s games thus far and is averaging 3.75 shots on goal for the season.
The Panthers also look like they’ll be starting Sergei Bobrovsky in net, which is a welcome sign for DFS purposes. Both teams in this game (which has the highest over/under on the slate at 6.5 goals) have implied team totals of 3.3 goals as well, so this Panthers/Avalanche matchup does suggest a high-scoring affair.
There are lots to choose from as far as elite options tonight, but Rantanen seems like he is without a flaw as a DFS target.
Top Value
Zach Hyman ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
As mentioned above, we really want to target some Oilers tonight in a spot where they, unsurprisingly, have the highest implied team total on the slate. Zach Hyman has been moved into a second-line role alongside Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins, but the move doesn’t make him irrelevant for DFS. He’s a solid stacking option with Nugent-Hopkins against this weak opponent and is still a part of the PP1 unit for Edmonton, which is hitting at over 40% already this year — and looks likely to be one of the leaders in this category again.
Hyman’s a player we should feel good about rostering when he’s under $5,000 on DraftKings in this role as he’s likely to outperform many of his long-term trends this year playing with the Oilers. He’s got an elite CorsiFor rating, which is sixth-best on this slate, and should be a nice source of value given the exposure we get with him to the Oilers PP1 and L2.
Defense
Top Play
Brent Burns ($6,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) at Ottawa Senators
Brent Burns has turned back the clock to start the season. The 36-year-old heads into this game against the Senators, having collected at least six shots on goal + blocked shots in his first two games of the year and has also played over 27-minutes in both of those games. The Sharks are devoid of a high-volume shot-taker on the wing right now with Evander Kane out so the idea that Kane’s absence will lead to a fantasy resurgence of the old Burns (who was once one of the most valuable and productive players in fantasy for NHL DFS) isn’t that outlandish.
Regardless, the Sharks seem to be intent on riding Burns here while he’s fresh, and he rates out in the top 90% in Long Term shots on goal + blocked shots in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends. In the Projected Points Model, he’s got the fifth-best Ceiling Projection and takes on the Senators here, who rates out as a positive opponent for his projection with a +0.7 in the Opposition Plus/Minus Rating.
Ottawa’s still a great opponent to target for DFS, and Burns’ projections here say we should respect this early season outburst in spots like these.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Chicago Blackhawks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson has seen some pretty big usage in his first few games as a Canuck. The Swede is averaging over 24 minutes of ice-time per game and has seen his SOG total spike as well. He’s now in the top 10% in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends for shots on goal and ice time for the month at his position.
We’ve seen Ekman-Larsson be a solid fantasy producer in the past, and he’s also benefitted from an injury to Quinn Hughes (the regular PP1 quarterback for the Canucks) hit the injury report. Regardless of whether Hughes plays today, though, Ekman-Larsson’s spike here on a new team looks like a trend worth chasing, especially against the Blackhawks, who are again near the league leaders in shots allowed. He rates out as one of the clear values to chase in the FantasyLabs Models, where he has an 80% Bargain Rating on FanDuel today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
Connor Hellebuyck has had a rough start to the season, as he’s yet to pick up a win and has allowed an average 4.75 goals per game. The former Vezina Trpohy winner is in a nice spot tonight against the Ducks and enters as a -195 favorite against, making him the biggest favorite on the slate by a longshot.
Anaheim is getting more pucks to the net in 2021, but they’re also dead last in expected goal percentage (xGF%) over the last 12 months. Hellebuyck should have enjoyed the days off and should be up in this spot, given that the Jets finally get to play a home game after starting with three on the road. He rates out as a solid pay-up play for this game with a top-three Ceiling Projection and Upside Rating in the Projected Points Model.
Top Value
Igor Shesterkin ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) at Nashville Predators
Igor Shesterkin is coming off a couple of monster games against Toronto and Montreal. The Russian posted save percentages upwards of .965 against both teams and allowed just two goals in those two starts on 73 shots faced. Moreover, he rates out quite well for this slate in terms of win probability and save prediction. The FantasyLabs Model has him facing over 33 shots against in this spot against Nashville and based on his own team allowing over 36 shots per game over his first two starts, that’s probably a reasonable estimate.
The Rangers are also small road favorites, which adds to his intrigue as a cheap value option. Shesterkin rates out top-five in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model tonight in overall rating, predicted shots against, and average fantasy points over the last 12-months.
He’s a great value option, especially with the Rangers trending as small favorites in this spot.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Winnipeg L1 – Scheifele, Conner, Copp
The Jets’ top line enters this game in a nice spot as -195 favorites over the Ducks. Winnipeg has a 3.3 implied team total here, which is the second biggest on the slate. Anaheim has played well to start the year (or at least much better than they did last season), but they’ve also allowed the second-most shots against and third-most quality scoring chances against.
In short, they seem to be living on borrowed time here, and the Jets’ first line is certainly a group who could stop them dead in their tracks for at least a game. The Jets don’t have a dominant offensive defenseman, but they do have a first-line center in Mark Scheifele, who played over 25 minutes in his second game back from injury. He’ll see a ton of correlation with Kyle Conner on the power-play and with Conner and Andrew Copp at even strength, who also played over 20 minutes his last time out.
Copp may be thought of as the loose end here, but he’s got an elite Consistency Rating in the models and a solid CorsiFor rating as well. There’s good value in the Jets’ top-line tonight which plays some of the heaviest minutes in the league and has a great match-up against a poor defensive team in the Ducks.
Editor’s note: Mark Scheifele was placed into the COVID-19 protocol.
