The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
Mikko Rantanen is in a bit of a unique position today as he’s listed as a center on DraftKings but is still listed under wing on FanDuel. The Finn is taking over first-line center duties for the Avalanche with Nathan MacKinnon out and while it’s likely a short-term out of position move, it has paid dividends for the Avalanche from the get-go. The team has scored 13 times over their last two games and come into this meeting with Vancouver with an implied team total of 3.4 goals, the largest on the slate by far.
Vancouver has been a hot mess to begin the year and remain last in penalty-kill efficiency. The Avalanche offense is one you will likely need at least some exposure to on this slate and starting lineups with Rantanen ensures you have their biggest offensive catalyst on your team. He rates out with the highest Ceiling Projection at center on DraftKings today by 3.5 points and makes for the most enticing pay-up option at forward, period.
Top Value
Yanni Gourde ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Kraken’s forwards continue to present us with good value options, especially on short slate like we have here. Yanni Gourde rates out eighth in Ceiling Rating among all centers today and is available at well under $4,500 on both sites. The former Lightning player is being more active in the offensive zone this year and is averaging 2.5 shots on goal for the season, vs. 2.1 in his long-term form. His CorsiFor Rating also puts him sixth on this slate for centers which again shows us that we should expect more big nights from Gourde during this season since he’s driving play, even if he remains somewhat inconsistent due to the team he’s on.
The Blackhawks have played better defensively of late but have still allowed the eighth-most scoring chances against on the year. On a night with limited options, it’s not a match-up we should shy away from.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) at Seattle Kraken
Patrick Kane is second to Alex Ovechkin in terms of Point Projections and Ceiling Rating in the FantasyLabs Model today but it’s not a wide gap. The Blackhawks winger is the clear top choice at wing when we just go to overall Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model and that’s likely largely due to the savings we’re getting with Kane here over Ovechkin.
Kane is more than $1,000 cheaper than Ovechkin on DraftKings today and ranks out in the top-1% of shot attempts and shots on goal over the last month in the Pro Trends at his position. He hasn’t had as many ceiling type of games as Ovechkin this year but the trends here do suggest more are coming. The Kraken have been a disaster on defense of late, allowing 20 goals over their last four games, while the Kings have been solid on defense, hitting unders in six of their last seven games. Kane’s the top choice at wing today.
Top Value
Jaden Schwartz ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Jaden Schwartz is a player I’ve pointed repeatedly to for value in this article and there’s no harm in going back to him here tonight. As mentioned above, the Hawks still provide too many scoring chances against at 5v5 and allow over 31 shots on goal per game. Schwartz comes in averaging 3.0 shots on goal for the year now and is in the top-5% in both shot attempts and shots on goal (for wingers) in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs over the last 15 games.
Schwartz started out his Kraken career slow but now has 10 points in his last nine games and plays on the top line and top power-play unit for Seattle. That kind of production and exposure can’t be beat so it’s also no shock he rates out third at wing today in the FantasyLabs Model. Schwartz remains a top value option here.
Defense
Top Play
Seth Jones ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) at Seattle Kraken
Seth Jones is the most expensive defenseman on both sites today but in a great spot against a Kraken team who is bleeding goals right now. While Jones may not rate as the top Ceiling play, he does have the best Consistency Rating (percentage of time he’s hit within a standard deviation of his expected points) in the FantasyLabs Model today and also leads this slate in blocked shots + shots on goal at 4.49 per game over the last 12 months.
The Blackhawks are the underdog tonight so stacking their top players likely won’t be as popular as the Colorado stacks, which all rate out extremely well too. Using Jones here though, who has topped 17.0 fantasy points on DraftKings in his last three games, while the elite Blackhawk forwards should give us exposure to similar upside at less ownership.
Top Value
Samuel Girard ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
It doesn’t get much better for value purposes than the Colorado Avalanche defensemen. Both Samuel Girard and Devon Toews have been absolute monsters for fantasy purposes of late given their cheap prices. Girard comes into this game against the Canucks off a massive four-point game where he totaled over 39 points on DraftKings, and now has seven points in his last three games alone.
Even if this feels like chasing points, it’s hard to argue that Girard wouldn’t be a great value here even if he were pointless in his last three games. He’s averaging 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game and is playing over 21-minutes a night — while also seeing regular power-play exposure. The Avalanche defense are all in great spots today (they’re 1-2-3 in the Player Ratings on defense) but Girard is the best value and a great way to save cash if you’re looking to stack one of the top forward units.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Darcy Kuemper ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
The Avalanche enter this slate as -160 favorites against a weaker Canucks team. Even if we’re not impressed with Colorado this year (they’re just 6-5-1 on the season) this team is still miles better than the Canucks who have one less win than Colorado despite playing four more games.
Colorado has now scored 13 goals in their last two games and head into tonight having allowed the least quality scoring chances against in the league. Darcy Kuemper tops the Ceiling Rating at goalie today on both sites and has stopped 49 of the last 52 shots he’s faced. With Colorado’s defense now healthy and Kuemper starting to get into form, taking advantage here seems like the no-brainer move on today’s slate. It’s likely time to start trusting the Avalanche starters again in these types of spots.
Top Value
Marc Andre Fleury ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) at Seattle Kraken
Marc Andre Fleury and the Blackhawks head into this game as +126 underdogs. But Fleury actually ranks out second among starters in terms of fantasy points per game over the last 12 months and has now stopped 64 of the last 67 shots he’s faced in back-to-back wins.
It’s a little strange to see the Hawks come in as such big underdogs in this spot if we’re being honest as the Kraken have lost four straight (including a loss to the Coyotes) and been an abject disaster on defense and in net. Fleury rates out as the preferred value option on both sites today as he’s second in Player Ratings in the FantasyLabs Model.
Notable Stacks
Chicago Power Play 1: Kirby Dach, Alex Debrincat, Patrick Kane, Seth Jones
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
With a short slate it’s OK to go with a four-man stack here and really go for the big night. The Kraken have allowed 20 goals over their last five games and haven’t developed into the solid defensive many thought they would. When we run our Projected Points Model in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool, Chicago rates out as the best group to target.
We have two high volume studs here in Seth Jones and Patrick Kane who play nearly all the player-play time for Chicago and a lower-priced center in Kirby Dach who brings down our average stack total here by quite a bit. Their 33.6k combined salary on DraftKings is more than fine here given the upside we get with the Kraken as an opponent. If you’re looking to go with a three-man unit than Alex DeBrincat is likely the one I’d leave out but he does rate out well in the Model and ranks third in Ceiling at wing today. He’s landed two games with 20.0 or more points on DraftKings over his last five games.
