The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) at Detroit Red Wings
There’s a clear gap between the top three centers on the slate today with the top spot clearly belonging to Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon rates out first in Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Model and comes into this game having scored in each of his last two outings. Short-term, he’s been heating up and long-term he still has the clear shots on goal edge of over Conner McDavid who sits $700 more expensive than him on DraftKings today.
The match-up is the big factor today though. MacKinnon faces the Red Wings who allowed the Avalanche offense to post seven goals against them in their lats meeting. MacKinnon grabbed a goal in that win and a similar beat down should be expected with Colorado coming off an embarrassing loss to Boston, which they’ve had multiple days to stew over.
Top Value
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) at Tampa Bay Lighting
The Oilers offense may be up against it in Tampa Bay, but that doesn’t mean we have to avoid them completely. The Oilers are still a top-10 team in terms of power-play efficiency and goals per game. While loading up on their studs in this match-up is more of a GPP strategy, looking at value options like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is fine for any format.
Nugent-Hopkins has averaged over 20-minutes per game over his last four starts and should continue to see minutes in this range with the likes of Jesse Puljujarvi banged up. He gets us first-unit power-play exposure and has averaged over 3.5 shots on net over his last six games. He’s got the top projection of any player under $5,000 on DraftKings today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model as well.
Wing
Top Play
Evander Kane ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) at Tampa Bay Lighting
If we want to fit in high-priced studs like MacKinnon and one of his wingers, we have to find some upside from other teams at cheaper prices. The Oilers offense is underpriced as a whole today due to a match-up with Tampa, but many of their players rate out very well on FantasyLabs as a result. No one pops in the Models more than Evander Kane, who comes in ranked fifth in the Projections for both sites at wing and fourth in the overall Player Ratings today as well.
Kane has been excellent from the get-go with Edmonton and ranks in the top-10% in Corsi Rating at his position over the last month and in the top-5% in shots on net (via the FantasyLabs Pro Trends Tool). The Oilers have also been good on the road this year with a 14-8-2 record and a +11 goal differential. Kane’s been a good fantasy producer since coming back and, at these prices, will likely end up being a must have if he and the Oilers offense end up out-performing expectations today.
Top Value
Valeri Nichushkin ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) at Detroit Red Wings
We’ll continue to trend of alternating Oilers and Avalanche players in this spot with Valeri Nichushkin, who has been a great value target in daily fantasy hockey circles all season. The Russian has been entrenched in a top-sox role alongside Nazem Kadri of late and ranks out just behind Kane in the Player Ratings on FantasyLabs.
Nichushkin has just one point in his lats five games but that shouldn’t stop you from diving in today. He’s in the top-5% for Corsi Rating at his position over the last month and faces a Red Wings team who allows the fourth-most quality scoring chances against and has a bottom-10 penalty-kill. Nichushkin seems likely to get back on track today and produce another above expectation performance.
Defense
Top Player
Victor Hedman ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Lightning rate out with an implied goal total of 3.9 today so we should not be fearful of paying up for any of their studs. Using Victor Hedman on defense gives good all-round exposure to this offense as the Swede continues to play big minutes every game and eats up a lot of the power-play exposure on the back-end for Tampa.
Hedman may not be the popular choice for the Norris trophy this year but he’s been uber consistent for fantasy and ranks in the top-1% at his position over the last month in blocked shots and time on ice. Any offensive explosion by Tampa could easily mean Hedman slots in as the top scorer by a longshot on defense and he rates out extremely well by all metrics in the FantasyLabs Model today.
Top Value
Esa Lindell ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Stars feature plenty of solid fantasy producers and so it’s never a bad idea to go looking for one of their higher-volume players on the back-end when looking for more extreme value. Esa Lindell doesn’t bring us the point upside of some of the other Stars defensemen, but he’s also the cheaper than both John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen and rates out above both in the FantasyLabs Ceiling Projections today.
Lindell is starting to get more power-play exposure as the season progresses and faces off against one of the worst penalty-kills in the league today in the Jets. He’s averaging a solid 3.4 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10-games and should be viewed as an optimal punt if you’re looking below $4,000 on DraftKings today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jake Oettinger ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Stars Jake Oettinger has been terrific of late, grabbing wins in four of his last five games while also posting a .928 save percentage over his last 10-games as well. The slate today has a couple of big favorites in Colorado and Tampa Bay on it, but the Avalanche are starting their backup, while Tampa Bay faces a crafty Edmonton offense which is capable cracking even the best goalies.
Oettinger actually ranks out ahead of everyone today in Ceiling Projections, in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model, and sits as a solid -150 favorite on the Sportsbooks with a save prediction of over 28.00. Winnipeg’s offense has gone flat in the second half and shouldn’t scare us off the streaking Oettinger at all today.
Top Value
Samuel Montembeault ($7,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Canadiens Sam Montembeault has finally provided the Canadiens some short-term stability in net. He’s allowed two or fewer goals now in three of his last four starts and is coming off a massive 35-save game over the Maple Leafs. Montembeault is only 25 and even though he’s bounced around a bit already, this is the age when a lot of goalies really start hitting their stride.
Buffalo rates out as a good opponent as they have a bottom-ranked power-play and are second-last in Expected Goal rate on the year. Watch the starting lineups today as Montembeault could get the night off, but if he does rolling with Andrew Hammond — who stopped 30 of 32 shots faced in his lats start — isn’t a bad idea either.
Notable Stack
Canadiens L1 – Nicholas Suzuki – Cole Caufield – Josh Anderson
Avalanche L1 – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen – Gabriel Landeskog
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As mentioned above, the Avalanche top-line should be seething tonight after getting pants-ed in their last outing by Boston. They have the top-rated players at both centre and wing today on FantasyLabs and the best match-up on the slate. Trying to jam-in the entire Avalanche top-line will likely give you more uniqueness in big fields as well where most will likely stop-out at rostering one or two of the Avs big players. They rate out as the top stack by a wide margin.
If you want a cheap value option to help you fit in these Avalanche studs, then looking at Montreal today should be high on your list. Their top-line has been playing far better of late and they come with a price-tag of well under $15,000 on DraftKings. The match-up with the Sabres is just as good as Colorado’s match-up with Detroit and the Canadiens young forwards have little pressure right now, except to go out and keep trying to score as many goals as possible and boost their long-term values.
