The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a three-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mika Zibanejad ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) @ Arizona Coyotes
We don’t have a ton of superstars to choose from today, and center is particularly devoid of big names. The Rangers are projected with a 3.4 implied team total tonight against a Coyotes team who remains last in goals against per game (and fourth last in penalty-kill). Mika Zibanejad continues to shoot poorly in 2021 as he’s a full 6% under his career shooting rate. The Coyotes give up goals at an alarming rate and are now without their best defender here in Jakob Chychrun.
Paying up for the Rangers’ top line today won’t be a contrarian move. Still, Zibanejad has a massive lead in the Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs to the point where he’s nearly 5.0 points above the next highest listed player there. Pay up for the Rangers center, which is well overdue for a breakout in the goal-scoring department.
Top Value
Jared McCann ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) @ Anaheim Ducks
On a three-game slate, we don’t have to look far for value as several of the Seattle Kraken forwards rank out very well. With Yanni Gourde out, it’s meant Jared McCann has taken a more starring role of late, and he comes into this game having landed 19 shots in his last five games. He’s ranked in the top 10% at his position in shots on goal + blocked shots in the FantasyLabs ProTrends Tool and also takes top spot in the Player Ratings tonight in the Projected Points Model.
McCann takes on a Ducks team who continues to defy logic and is playing some great defensive hockey of late. On a three-game slate, we can’t afford to be picky, though and McCann’s opportunity has increased, leaving him as one of the best pure values on the slate today and someone you should build around if looking to the Kraken for a cheap stack for value.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($9,700 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) @ Chicago Blackhawks
Much like Zibanejad at center, we have a pretty obvious but necessary play at wing to pay up for. Alex Ovechkin isn’t cheap but paying up for players on shorter slates like the one we have tonight is all relative. There’s plenty of value at all positions to choose from, and Ovechkin comes into this game averaging 4.6 shots on and goal and 1.5 ppg over his last 10-starts. He leads all wingers in shots on goal + blocked shots and in fantasy points per game as well.
There are always nights where the top players can bust, but even a median performance here from Ovechkin means he could easily factor into the top lineups today with top-lines on teams like Seattle and Anaheim available to stack at cheap prices. Take the safe floor here and move on.
Top Value
Jaden Schwartz ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) @ Anaheim Ducks
The running theme for tonight is definitely going to be using Seattle players for value. The Kraken aren’t a terrible team at 5v5, and they face a Ducks squad who has allowed the 11th-most scoring chances against this year. Winger Jaden Schwartz is another Seattle top-liner who rates out very well in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs today as he’s third in the overall Player Ratings there.
Schwartz has been playing big minutes for the Kraken all year, and while his production has been spotty, he’s averaging just under 3.0 shots on goal, per game, over his last 10 starts. If you don’t like using this many Seattle players, then taking a look at Arizona’s cheap forwards is also something to consider too. Clayton Keller has averaged over a point-per-game over his last 10 starts and also rates out well on FantasyLabs today.
Defense
Top Play
Adam Fox ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) @ Arizona Coyotes
The Rangers’ top line will be popular today in DFS, and one way you can differentiate a bit is to add in their high-priced defenseman to whatever forwards you choose to stack as well. Adam Fox is tied for ninth in the league in powerplay points this year and is tied with Roman Josi for the lead among defensemen in that category. As mentioned earlier, the Coyotes already have a bottom-five penalty-kill and will be without their best defender tonight as well.
Fox doesn’t shoot the puck as much as some of the other elite defensemen in the league, but he makes it up by averaging nearly 2.0 blocked shots, and due to the fact he’s such a good setup man. Fox is averaging 0.94 points per game over the last 12 months (tops among defensemen on this slate) and with the Rangers having the highest implied team total today, paying up for him gives you good access to a player very capable of potting more than one point in a great matchup.
Top Value
Vince Dunn ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) @ Anaheim Ducks
We’ll conclude our trip around the Kraken roster for tonight with a visit to defense. Vince Dunn has been playing more minutes for the Kraken over the last month or so as the team deals with COVID outages and injury issues on defense. Dunn is just a sneaky good all-around player as he actually rates out seventh in actual points per game (0.35) among all defensemen on this slate in long-term form and is seventh in Player Ratings on the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today as well.
With him now playing on the pairing and seeing top powerplay usage as well, Dunn’s salary here simply looks way too cheap not to use him as a primary value play on defense. Regardless of whether or not you choose to stack the Kraken today, targeting Dunn a value on defense is a good strategy to help free up salary at other places.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Alexandar Georgiev ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) @ Arizona Coyotes
The Rangers haven’t officially announced their goaltender yet for today, but Alex Georgiev does rate out as the top play on FantasyLabs at the moment. The Russian netminder has filled in admirably for Igor Shesterkin and ranks out as the top favorite on this slate at -220 in the moneyline odds.
Georgiev has posted a .920 save percentage, or better, in four of his last five starts, and trusting him here makes sense given the overall weakness of his opponent. If the Rangers do start, Keith Kincaid, looking to Anaheim, and the red hot Anthony Stolarz could be a good pivot move as the Ducks are also strong -165 favorites. Watch the goalie news to see who you should be trusting today.
Top Value
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals
One contrarian move I really like today is using the Blackhawks starting goalie (regardless of whether or not you are rostering Alex Ovechkin). Lots of people will be paying up for the Capitals best player (and his line-mates) but the Blackhawks projected starting goalie has been tough to crack of late. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .939 save percentage over his last 10 games and has the second-best Ceiling Projection on this slate.
The Blackhawks are only +118 underdogs here and Fleury has the highest save prediction on FantasyLabs for today as well. Even if you don’t the savings, Fleury projects out as a strong upside play today and a good way to differentiate in your GPP lineups.
Notable Stack
Rangers PP1 – Mika Zibanejad – Chris Kreider – Adam Fox
Kraken L1 – Jared McCann – Jaden Schwartz – Jordan Eberle
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
I’ve already mentioned both of these teams ad nauseam in the article, so we’ll be brief here. The Rangers’ top powerplay unit is in a spot to break out against a team that has allowed 4.8 goals per game over their last five starts. The Coyotes remain a nightly punching bag, and the Rangers’ top player Mika Zibanejad will certainly be looking to get his shooting percentage up in this matchup. They rank out as the top unit today in the Fantasy Labs Stacking Tool under the Projected Points Model.
The Kraken’s top line has also all been well-documented above as well. Taking the cheap value with Vince Dunn on defense is a no-brainer, but a more contrarian move might be to play the Kraken’s entire first line today (and maybe even leave $1,000+ of salary on the table). This line has a good correlation, and not many DFS lineups will likely feature all three forwards together.
