The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Elias Pettersson ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
For the second day in a row, our top play at center is named Elias, but this time it’s Elias Pettersson from the Vancouver Canucks. Petterson gets a home matchup with the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night.
The Wild have a reputation for being a structured defensive hockey club, but that hasn’t helped them prevent goals over their past few outings. Minnesota has allowed 13 goals over that span, setting Pettersson and the Canucks up for a strong offensive showing in their first home game of the season. The young Swede drives the offensive bus for the Canucks, being on the ice for 32 high-danger and 65 scoring chances, both of which rank second on the team.
Pettersson’s fantasy ceiling is among the best in the FantasyLabs projections, and he is worth including on DFS rosters.
Top Value
Mikael Backlund ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Calgary Flames are finding their rhythm early this season, and they are getting production out of their entire lineup, including their second line that features Mikael Backlund centering Blake Coleman and Tyler Pitlick.
Backlund has two points, nine shots, and one block through five games but has underlying metrics which support increased output. The 32-year-old remains below expected goals-for percentage, despite controlling possession and shots across all strengths. His metrics at five-on-five are even more dominant, with Corsi rating, relative shots, and relative scoring chance above 60.0%.
The Flames are on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. The New Jersey Devils will deploy their checking line against the Flames top line, giving Backlund and his linemates a little more room to roam.
Wing
Top Play
Gabriel Landeskog ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Colorado Avalanche haven’t missed a beat early this season. They remain one of the league’s most dominant teams, and Gabriel Landeskog remains a pillar on their team.
No Avs player has posted better relative metrics than Landeskog this season. The veteran winger has a 72.1% scoring chances-for rating and 84.2% high-danger chances-for percentage, placing him not only on top of his team rankings but also at the top of the leaderboard in the NHL rankings. Landeskog is surrounded by skill both on the team’s top line and top powerplay unit and gets 80.0% of his starts in the offensive zone. The Avs are dominant, thanks in part to Landeskog’s steady contributions.
We are riding Landeskog’s hot hand and naming him as the top play at winger.
Top Value
Tanner Pearson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Tanner Pearson is the trigger man on the Canucks second line, and he rates highly in the FantsyLabs projections among value plays on the wing.
Pearson leads the Canucks forwards with 19 shots on net through six games. The former first-round pick has three points, including a game-winning goal, but should start to be more involved in scoring, skating on a line that has accumulated 15 points already this season. Pearson continues to out-possess, out-shoot, and out-chance his opponents in scoring chances, resulting in an expected goals-for percentage of 52.9%.
The Canucks will continue to set Pearson up for success, and his shooting percentage should work its way back up towards average. Pearson’s a value play at wing on tonight’s DFS slates.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs.Calgary Flames
The New Jersey Devils are in a favorable spot tonight against the Flames, hosting the winners of three in a row on the second night of a back-to-back.
Dougie Hamilton is a mainstay on the Devils powerplay and creates more scoring and high-danger chances than he gives up despite getting only 50.0% of his starts in the offensive zone. The 28-year-old leads the Devils in ice-time, has recorded the second-most shots on goal, and has seven blocked shots through four games. Hamilton accumulates fantasy points in a number of ways, increasing his fantasy ceiling.
The Devils will have opportunities against a tired Flames team, and Hamilton will figure in on the scoring, making him our top play at defense.
Top Value
Mattias Ekolm ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
A lot of the Nashville Predators’ offense is generated on the back end, and Mattias Ekholm doesn’t get enough credit for all the things he does right.
Ekholm skates the second-most minutes on the Preds, spending more time on the penalty kill than he does on the powerplay, but figures prominently across all strengths. That allows him to accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways, including shots, blocks, and points. The veteran defender only has one assist this season but has the second-most shots among Preds’ defensemen.
The San Jose Sharks have given up 14 or more high-danger and 36 or more scoring chances in two of their past three, creating a high-ceiling for Preds’ skaters. Included in that is Ekholm, who is our value play on defense.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Thatcher Demko ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
The Vancouver Canucks are the second-last team to play their home opener this season, but they have the pleasure of hosting the Wild on Tuesday night.
Thatcher Demko is the probable goalie for the Canucks tonight, and our projections rank his fantasy ceiling among the best on the slate. Demko comes into tonight’s contest off consecutive wins, in which he’s stopped 95.1% of shots faced. The 26-year-old has been above average in high-leverage situations posting an 81% save percentage on even-strength high-danger opportunities and 91.4% of powerplay shots, both of which are above career norms. Demko won’t face a shooting range on Tuesday, as the Wild continue to deploy a conservative offensive system, in which they have attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in three of their first five games.
The Canucks will be ready for their first home game with fans in the stands, and Demko should lead them to victory.
Top Value
John Gibson ($7,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
John Gibson remains an overlooked fantasy contributor on an underwhelming Anaheim Ducks team. The Ducks host a Winnipeg Jets team that is ineffective on the road.
This season, Gibson is stopping 92.1% of shots for 1.5 goals saved above average and two wins in his first four starts. The former Jennings Trophy winner has made key saves this season, stopping 96.3% of powerplay shots and 88.2% of high-danger chances at even strength. He’ll face a Jets team that has failed to attempt more than six high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their five games this season and average just 14.7 scoring and 4.3 high-danger chances as visitors.
This is a good spot for Gibson, who is better at home and faces an ineffective offense. Gibson’s FantasyLabs ceiling projections and affordable salary make him our value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We only highlighted one Colorado Avalanche player in our top and value plays, but there are several Avs stacks that rank highly in our lineup builder. We’re building today’s stack around the aforementioned Landeskog and adding several other key contributors for the Avalanche.
Starting up the middle, Nathan MacKinnon has been in the Hart Trophy conversation for years because of his elite production metrics. MacKinnon skates on a line with Landeskog, and the forwards also skate on the Avs’ top powerplay unit. They are joined by Cale Makar, who remains a significant contributor for the Avs. Makar is relied upon as a set-up man on the powerplay and delivers a fair number of shots from the blueline. Darcy Kuemper is a steadying force in the Avs defensive end and shouldn’t face too many challenges from an underperforming Vegas Golden Knights team.
Betting confidence also supports the Avs tonight, as they enter the contest as -180 favorites. We’re relying on an Avs stack on today’s slate.
