The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sidney Crosby ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in an ideal spot Tuesday night as they host the Florida Panthers on the second night of a back-to-back. Sidney Crosby has been in cruise control over his current schedule and should continue to produce against the Panthers.
The two-time Hart Trophy winner has 20 points over his previous 14 contests, recording points in all but one of those games. Further, his success is validated with his analytics as Crosby remains a force for the Penguins, posting a 63.6% expected goals-for rating. What’s reflected in that rating are his 59.6% Corsi, 60.8% scoring chance, and 60.0% high-danger chance ratings.
Panthers’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a save percentage below 90.0% in six of his past 11 outings. Crosby and the Pens could perpetuate that slide on Tuesday.
Top Value
Jack Eichel ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Nine games into his tenure with the Vegas Golden Knights, Jack Eichel is starting to get his sea legs underneath him and should start to see his strong efforts pay off.
Eichel has recorded four or more shots on net in five straight games, finding the back of the net just twice over that stretch. That’s a good sign that puck luck should follow for Eichel, something his advanced metrics also support. The former second overall selection has a 56.9% Corsi rating and is out-chancing his opponents in scoring chances at an 89-62 ratio while being individually responsible for 26 of those opportunities.
The Golden Knights are giving Eichel every chance to succeed, starting their newest forward in the attacking zone 74.1% of the time. That should help him get his scoring on track against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets winger Kyle Connor has had a wildly successful campaign. The sixth-year player leads the team in scoring and is on pace for a career-best season.
Connor has 62 points through 56 games, putting him just shy of his personal best 73 points he put up in 71 games during the 2019-20 season. The American forward is the pacesetter in nearly every advanced category, leading the team in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances while posting the fourth-best Corsi rating.
According to our projections, Connor is one of the best forward options available on Tuesday’s slate, as the Jets take on a Tampa Bay Lightning squad playing their fifth game in eight nights.
Top Value
Troy Terry ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Three seasons into his time with the Anaheim Ducks and Troy Terry is emerging as a backbone of an up-and-coming offense. The former fifth-round selection leads the team in scoring and projects as an undervalued forward against the Chicago Blackhawks tonight.
Terry heads into tonight’s contest on a modest three-game point streak, totaling 49.3 fantasy points over that stretch. The Ducks deploy Terry on their second line and powerplay unit, resulting in 53.9% of his shifts starting in the attacking zone. Still, Terry manages to produce some of the best offensive metrics, ranking second among Ducks’ forwards in scoring chance and high-danger chance ratings.
The Hawks have allowed the eighth-most goals this season, giving up three or more in four of their past five. Terry and Anaheim’s offense can extend that misery on Tuesday night.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
We’ve highlighted Roman Josi as a top defensive option on several occasions and he continues to live up to the billing. We’re expecting big things from him again as the Nashville Predators host the Dallas Stars.
The 31-year-old has four multi-point outings over his last six games, recording 11 points over that span and moving within four points of Cale Makar for the league lead among defensemen. There are a few key metrics supporting that Josi’s offensive surge should continue. The veteran d-man starts 66.0% of his shifts in the attacking zone, leading Preds’ blueliners in Corsi and expected goals-for rating, and is a primary shooter for Nashville, leading the team with 187 shots.
The Stars have given up 10 or more quality chances in three of their past four, posting game scores below 50.0% in two straight. Josi and the Preds won’t let this opportunity pass.
Top Value
Thomas Chabot ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
When the Ottawa Senators started their re-build, Thomas Chabot was the only untouchable. The rearguard has rewarded that decision by stabilizing the Sens backend while making meaningful offensive contributions. The Sens travel to take on the St. Louis Blues, and Chabot projects as a value play on the blueline.
The Senators’ assistant captain has seven points over his last five games, with the bulk of those points coming on a pair of three-point outings. Still, Chabot is a driving force for the Sens offense and should have more puck luck over his coming games. Chabot has put 33 shots on target over his last nine games, a span in which he’s recorded just two goals and seven points.
The last time Chabot didn’t record a shot on net was December 11, 2021. We’re anticipating more points from Chabot; look for the defender to find his way onto the scoresheet against the Blues.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of several teams competing on the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday. The Leafs played their analytics cards properly by saving primary goalie Jack Campbell for tonight’s matchup against the Seattle Kraken.
Campbell has struggled over his recent sample, stopping a paltry 83.6% of shots over his past four starts. Although that appears concerning, Campbell’s save percentage has dipped far enough that the pendulum should start swinging the other direction. There are a couple of indicators suggesting that Campbell should progress against the Kraken. First, the Leafs have allowed seven or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past seven, with no opponent attempting more than 24 scoring chances over that span. Second, Seattle has recorded more than nine high-danger chances just once over their past four games, scoring more than two goals once.
There is a huge jump in quality between the Leafs and Kraken, benefiting Campbell and the Leafs tonight. On that basis, Campbell rates as one of the best goalies available.
Juuse Saros ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
The Predators’ projected starter Juuse Saros is criminally underrated on tonight’s docket against the Stars and is our value play between the pipes.
Saros is coming off a 20-save shutout performance and is fantasy ascent on Tuesday. Nashville has done a good job of protecting their goalie recently, allowing seven or fewer high-danger chances in three of their past four games, with no team attempting more than 24 scoring chances. That’s unlikely to change against the Stars, who have been limited to seven or fewer quality and 23 or fewer scoring chances in three of their past five.
Bridgestone Arena has been a safe haven for Saros this season. The 26-year-old is 15-9-0 at home with a 93.0% save percentage and 2.12 goals-against average. We’re expecting that type of performance from Saros tonight.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Based on our algorithm, playing on the second night of a back-to-back doesn’t impact the Leafs’ chances tonight against the Kraken. We’re highlighting our favorite Leafs’ lineup as our Notable Stack.
The Leafs’ top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Michael Bunting continues to run roughshod over the competition. So far this season, the top line has combined for 177 points this season, six of which came last night against the Columbus Blue Jackets. You can’t go wrong with any combination of those players, but we’ve landed on Matthews and Marner as the best-rated pair. Morgan Reilly starts more shifts in the attacking zone than any other defensemen and is tied with Bunting for the fifth-most points on the team this season. He’s included in our stack against the Kraken. Jack Campbell has underachieved over his recent sample but should progress against an ineffective Kraken attack.
There is an abundance of confidence in the Leafs in the betting market, as well. Toronto enters tonight’s contest as -260 favorites and is drawing 83% of the action.
