The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
There are no breaks on this Florida Panthers offense, and they should keep rolling against the New York Rangers on Tuesday night. The Panthers have scored 22 goals over their past four games, and Aleksander Barkov has been in the driver’s seat the entire time.
Barkov hasn’t been shy about putting pucks on net, attempting 19 shots over the four-game sample. That’s part of a bigger trend, in which the Finnish forward has attempted at least four shots on net in six straight games. The difference is, Barkov is having more luck finding the back of the net, recording five points and three goals over the previous four outings.
The Rangers have been ineffective at preventing quality chances, allowing 15.3 per game over their last seven. That’s going to hurt them against the Panthers, and Barkov will be there to capitalize.
Top Value
Mark Scheifele ($7,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
It hasn’t been a banner year for Mark Scheifele and the Winnipeg Jets, but the team and player have shown signs of improvement over their recent samples. We’re expecting more good things from them on Tuesday night against the Flyers.
Scheifele came out of the gates slow, recording just seven points through his first 14 games. The 28-year-old has picked things up since then, but still, he remains below expected output. Scheifele has recorded 22 points over his past 21 games, bringing his actual goals-for percentage (53.9%) a touch below expected (4.7%), with his on-ice PDO also remaining slightly below average at 0.993. His metrics suggest that further growth is expected from Schiefele.
Scheifele doesn’t come at a deep discount, but the value isn’t worth passing up against the defensively challenged Flyers.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The high-powered Colorado Avalanche take on the basement-dwelling Arizona Coyotes, setting Mikko Rantanen up for an elite offensive performance on Tuesday.
Rantanen is coming off two straight multi-point games and remains an analytics darling. The 25-year-old leads the Avs in expected goals-for percentage and Avs’ forwards in high-danger and scoring chances. He’s been part of one of the most effective lines in the NHL, combining for 141 points with his usual linemates. They are in a good position to continue their production against a Coyotes team that has given up 22 goals over their previous five games.
It’s worth noting that Rantanen is a winger on FanDuel slates only and carries a center designation on DraftKings. Regardless, he has one of the best fantasy ceilings on the slate.
Top Value
Mark Stone ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Vegas Golden Knights are back in their friendly confines for a date with the Buffalo Sabres. That’s good news for Mark Stone and the Knights’ offense, as they’ve been much better at home this season.
20 of Stone’s 26 points have come at T-Mobile Arena, where the Knights have the benefit of last change and can deploy Stone under more ideal circumstances. The veteran forward has thrived, scoring on 21.4% of shots on home ice while also spending time on the team’s top powerplay unit.
The Knights have scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 13 home games. Stone should get a piece of that pie against the lowly Sabres, and he comes at a value salary.
Defense
Top Play
Aaron Ekblad ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
Aaron Ekblad’s performance this season has been overshadowed by other big-name defensemen, but the former first overall selection is excelling with the Panthers.
Ekblad is the team leader in on-ice shots, scoring, and high-danger chances. He’s been a valuable contributor in each category and is individually responsible for 136, 74, and 21, respectively. That’s factoring into his 58.9% expected goals-for rating while playing over 25 minutes a night across all strengths.
The Panthers’ rearguard has delivered 14 shots on target over the past four games but has only three assists over that stretch. Ekblad is due for a big fantasy outing, and we’re betting that’s coming against the Rangers.
Top Value
Jakob Chychrun ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
It hasn’t been a great year for Jakob Chychrun, as he has just eight points through his first 32 games this season. Still, there are indicators that increased output is on the horizon for Chychrun.
As a team, the Coyotes have attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in three of their past four, and Chychrun is adding value to those metrics. The 23-year-old has put ten shots on target over that span while also chipping in with four blocked shots. That’s the type of production that we’re keen on from value play defensemen, as they can add fantasy points on both ends of the ice.
Chychrun is well below expected output this season and is earmarked for meaningful progression. As the Coyotes progress, so does Chychrun. We’re including him as a value play against the Avs.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
It’s not every day one of the best goalies in the league comes with a salary in the $7,000 range, but that’s the case with Andrei Vasilevskiy when the Tampa Bay Lightning host the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday.
Vasilevskiy has been nothing short of dominant again this season, leading the league in wins and ranking in the top ten in save percentage and goals-against average among qualified goalies. The Russian netminder has been lights out at home this season, stopping 93.2% of shots and establishing a 1.89 goals-against average.
The cards are stacked against the Sharks in this one as they conclude their four-game road trip amid a downturn in their metrics. That should mean another top-shelf outing from Vasilevskiy.
Jacob Markstrom ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom has put forth some of his best performances of the season recently, yet he still has a $7,700 salary on both DFS platforms on Tuesday. That makes him a value play against the Dallas Stars.
Markstrom has two shutouts over his previous three starts for a 93.1% save percentage over his last four starts. The veteran netminder has benefitted from the Flames’ defensive structure, as they’ve limited opponents to five or fewer quality chances and 17 or fewer scoring opportunities at five-on-five in five straight games.
The Flames have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and Markstrom continues to be the beneficiary. We’re not betting against a hot goaltender in a good system.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Similar to last night, there are a number of substantially favored teams on tonight’s docket. That’s resulted in several lineup combinations that rate highly in our projections. We’ve landed on the Avalanche as they continue to assert themselves on home ice.
Colorado has been without Nathan MacKinnon over the past couple of games after soaking a hit to the head from Taylor Hall last week. That has meant increased reliance on Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, who have combined for ten points since losing their captain. Cale Makar is on a near-record setting pace this season and is the Avs’ go-to defenseman in the attacking zone. Makar spends a lot of time with Landeskog and Rantanen at five-on-five and on the powerplay and should find a way onto the scoresheet. As usual, the projected starter is included in our stack, and Darcy Kuemper should continue his recent strong play against an underwhelming Coyotes attack.
The betting market reflects our confidence in the Avs, as Colorado opened as -470 and is now sitting -590.
