The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Aleksander Barkov has been fantastic for the Panthers of late and comes into this game with four points over his last two starts. The center is slightly cheaper than his two higher-priced peers in Conner McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon but has a terrific matchup at home vs. the Senators. The Panthers’ home splits on offense are ridiculous at this point as they’ve averaged 4.5 goals in 29 home starts and have a 4.5 implied team total for this game against Ottawa.
It’s really close between the top four centers today in the FantasyLab Projections, but Barkov is a great way to get a valuable piece of this Panthers offense. He’s one of a few players we could have featured in this spot today but the preferred one given the slate setup.
Top Value
Brock Nelson ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Islanders could potentially be without Matthew Barzal again, which would set Brock Nelson up for success in a solid matchup against Vancouver. Nelson has been a little quiet in his last three games but had scored in four straight before three pointless games against the Avalanche, Ducks and Kings. Nelson and the entire Islanders’ top line is in a good spot to potentially breakout against a Canucks team who has allowed seven goals against twice in their last four games and features the worst penalty-kill in the league.
Nelson’s boost from the matchup and potential extra usage is reflected in the FantasyLabs Model as well, where he sits with the highest Player Rating of anyone under $5,000 at center on DraftKings. You can pair him with the hot and cold Anthony Beuavilier, who is also due to make some noise and should play alongside Nelson if Barzal sits.
Wing
Top Play
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Flames take on a Canadiens team on Thursday who may have hit a short-term wall in their last game. Montreal had won four in a row before giving up eight goals against Winnipeg. Even during their winning streak, the team was giving up a ton of shots against. With a couple of third-stringer rotating starts for Montreal, it’s an excellent spot for a player like Johnny Gaudreau to break out and break a five-game scoring drought.
Gaudreau hasn’t been required to do as much lately, with linemate Matthew Tkachuk and newly acquired Tyler Toffoli leading the charge in terms of goal scoring. However, Gaudreau’s shooting percentage over the last 10 games has also dipped well below 10%, which suggests there’s likely some positive regression coming. He’s got the highest Ceiling Projection on FantasyLabs of any winger priced under $7,000 on DraftKings and makes for a great way to preserve upside and cash today at forward.
Top Value
Cam Atkinson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Atkinson is never a terrible player to target for daily fantasy purposes as the winger has maintained a solid shot volume for most of the year with the Flyers and still ranks in the top 10%, in short-term trends, in blocked shots + shots on goal, per game. The former Blue Jacket has gone a bit quiet of late but did show up with two points against Washington and then landed five shots on goal against Edmonton, his most in over 10 outings.
The Wild haven’t looked great by any stretch over their last five to seven starts and have seen their goaltenders struggle. The Philadelphia offense and PP1 may be a sneaky way to get contrarian today in big GPPs, and Atkinson is a great way to get a piece of that stack.
Defense
Top Play
Cale Makar ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
There are a few different routes we could pursue on defense. Loading up on more Panthers or potentially using an Oiler are both viable options, but let’s not forget that the Avalanche have a 4.5 implied goal total of their own vs. the Coyotes. Cale Makar comes in as the highest-rated player on the slate in the FantasyLabs Ceiling Projections and has still managed to be highly fantasy-viable despite having gone goalless in more than 10 straight games.
Makar is showcasing superior all-around skill for fantasy, piling up multiple assists in five of his last 10 games. He’s also continued to fire his shot plenty, ranking in the top 1% at defense in Corsi Rating over the last month. Makar could easily top the defense scoring today by a wide margin with Arizona on the ticket, making for a great pay-up option.
Top Value
Ryan Pulock ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Islanders players are all in good spots for fantasy purposes against the Canucks, who have featured some sketchy goaltending at times over the last month. Ryan Pulock certainly pops as a viable cheap option on defense for this reason and the fact he’s been a better fantasy producer as we head towards the back half of the year.
Pulock surprisingly now rates in the top 5% at his position in terms of shots on goal + blocked shots in long-term form (via the FantasyLabs Player Trends Tool) and has also seen over 22 minutes of ice in three of his last five starts. Even a little power-play exposure helps against a weak special teams unit like the Canucks penalty-kill, and Pulock does give us some of that and rates out with the best Ceiling Projection today of any player under $4,500 on DraftKings.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jacob Markstrom ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
The Flames sit as -435 favorites, which is tied with the Panthers for the top mark on the slate. However, there isn’t much comparison between the two goalies in play for the massive favorites. Jacob Markstrom has been one of the best fantasy producers in the entire league this year. The former Canuck has been his usual steady self of late, posting a .939 save percentage over his last 10 games and is coming off back-to-back wins over the Wild.
Markstrom comes at a lower price than the other massive favorite on this slate and should be your first stop if paying up. Montreal is still the same team from before their four-game winning streak, and likely won’t get another magic performance from Andrew Hammond today. Markstrom’s as safe as they come and looks severely underpriced considering the matchup.
Mikko Koskinen ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
The Oilers goaltending roller coaster continues. Mikko Koskinen is playing well again, and he comes into this game having stopped 83 of the last 86 shots he’s faced. We’ve seen bursts of greatness from the Fin before, so anyone looking to exercise caution and stay away should not be mocked. Still, Koskinen rates out exceptionally well in the FantasyLabs Model, especially from an upside perspective where he’s fifth in Ceiling Projection.
Excluding one eight-goal outburst against the Devils, the Blackhawks offense has been quite lethargic of late, and Edmonton should have plans to revenge a recent 4-1 loss to Chicago. Saving cash and riding Koskinen for one more game likely pays off today.
Notable Stack
Flames L1 – Lindholm – Tkachuk – Gaudreau
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Flames offense won’t be an under-the-radar thing today, but with the way the slate is built, it likely won’t see crazy ownership levels either, as we have Florida and Colorado also in great spots on this slate.
When we run the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool, Calgary comes in just behind those two aforementioned offenses but has the clear best value available with all players under $7,000 on DraftKings. Their back-end is also cheap, with Rasmus Andersson a cheap add if you want to stack their power-play against the weak Montreal special teams. Starting with the Calgary top-line preserves upside and lets you dabble in big names from other games as well.
