The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Conner McDavid ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Many Oilers rank out well in the FantasyLabs Projections today, and it shouldn’t come as too huge a shock. Their offense has been much more consistent of late, and their 4.1 implied team total ranks second on the slate. Both Oilers’ studs look like good backs today, and while Leon Draisaitl offers better savings, Conner McDavid looks like the tougher fade.
The Oilers captain has now scored multiple points in six of seven games and has finally found some linemates producing at the same rate he is. The Sharks haven’t been a great road team this year either, losing seven of their last nine, and are coming off an emotional win against Calgary. In an obvious letdown spot for San Jose, don’t be afraid to pay up to the most expensive forward on the slate.
Top Value
Matthew Barzal ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Islanders’ offense has been a better producing unit since the mid-way point of the year, and they’re in a great spot against Detroit, who carries a horrible road record into this matchup. New York’s forwards should also be able to capitalize on what has been a terrible penalty-kill this season, as Detroit currently sits with the fourth-worst mark in that regard.
Matthew Barzal rates out as one of the top plays under $5,000 on DraftKings at center and is an easy way to grab a cheap piece of this offense. He’s gone scoreless in over 10 games now but has seven assists over his last 10 starts and is still pulling plenty of top-six minutes. Barzal’s a fine pay-down option and can be part of a cheap mini-Islanders stack to go along with whichever high-priced line you land on for GPP lineups.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Huberdeau ($6,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) at Montreal Canadiens
The Panthers come in with the highest implied goal total on the slate at 4.2 and will be happy to show off their new toy in Claude Giroux. While Giroux is likely a good wait-and-see candidate, we can undoubtedly target this Panthers offense by paying up for the likes of the reliable Jonathan Huberdeau. He pops out at number two in the overall Ceiling Projections at Wing.
Huberdeau has been one of the better Panthers of late, grabbing three goals over their last three road starts, and also comes at an exceedingly low price on DraftKings, where his sub-$7k salary makes him easy to build around in a Panthers PP1 or L2 stack. Let others load up on Giroux and the first line as it looks like there’s better value starting Panthers stacks with Huberdeau, who continues to be underpriced, as he has been most of the year.
Top Value
Brock Boeser ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) at Minnesota Wild
The Wild are coming off a shutout win, so people may shy away from the Canucks on Thursday, but there’s good value in most of their forwards. Both Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser look undervalued compared to their recent output and usage, but Boeser is popping with better Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Model. The winger has been a better producer on the road this year and is coming in with strong short-term peripherals, including goals in two of his last three starts.
The Wild aren’t really a terrible target either. They’ve been one of the best over teams in the league (in terms of game totals), and their penalty-kill continues to rank below average. That’s great for Boeser, who sees plenty of minutes on the PP1 for Vancouver.
Defense
Top Play
Seth Jones ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) at LA Kings
It’s a tough slate to figure for defensemen. Roman Josi is now priced in a league of his own given his recent form, but there are a plethora of semi-appealing names to pick from under $7,000. Seth Jones gives us good minutes and power-play exposure, and he’s taking on a Kings team who ranks bottom-six in terms of penalty-kill efficiency.
Jones rates out third in the Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs and has averaged a point per game over his last five starts. There’s always a chance for a point + bonus game from Jones, who looks undervalued on DraftKings and could be part of a sneaky Blackhawks stack as the Kings remain thin on the backend without Drew Doughty. It’s a solid spot and reasonable price for a high-volume player like Jones.
Top Value
Ivan Provorov ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) at St. Louis Blues
The Flyers’ offense isn’t something we want to go crazy with, but their best players have seen their prices slashed and provide us with decent bargain opportunities. Ivan Provorov may not be a huge special teams ace like many of the other elite names at his position, but he’s locked into 22+ minutes per night and has produced over 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games.
That consistency is something we like for daily fantasy purposes, and he presents as one of the stronger values at his position given his sub-$5k salary on both sites. Any point from him likely produces one of the best point-per-dollar returns at his position.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Andersen ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
The Hurricanes Frederick Anderson has been one of the best goalies in the league this year and comes into this game at the top of the FantasyLabs Model. While Dallas can be a dangerous opponent given their potent top line, trusting Anderson today has its benefits. He’s super cheap on DraftKings at under $8,000, especially for how big a favorite Carolina is (-182 on the moneyline).
Anderson has also been stellar at home with a .932 save percentage and could command reduced ownership based on the perceived poor matchup against Dallas. If you’re looking up top, Anderson continues to show great form and provides the best dollar for upside ratio among the top names in play.
Top Value
Anton Forsberg ($8,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) at Winnipeg Jets
The Senators Anton Forsberg has been a bright spot on a rather dull team this year. He comes into this game with the Jets having posted a save percentage of .921 or better in each of his last three games and has averaged stout 16.1 DraftKings points in 15 road starts this year.
Forsberg’s play makes him an interesting target at under $7,000 on DraftKings and at just over it on FanDuel. He nearly pulled off the upset win against the Islanders in his last outing and will be taking on a Jets team that has received up and down goaltending all season. Forsberg ranks out with a save prediction over 30.0 on FantasyLabs and is a high-risk, high-reward GPP target if you want to pay down as low as possible in net.
Notable Stack
Oilers L1 – McDavid – Kane – Yamamoto
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
This slate is immense but doesn’t have a ton of great-looking matchups to flock to. We can certainly still think about using Tampa Bay or Boston L1s to build around, but the game environment could be defensive. That leads us to Edmonton, who has a decent opponent in San Jose and a top line that’s produced 17 points over their last three games.
The Oilers’ top unit has become a solid value proposition, with both Kailer Yamamoto and Evander Kane seeing PP1 usage. Both men have also scored multiple goals in their last three games and remain tied to the best player in hockey at both even strength and on the power-play. This line ranks out as a top-three unit in the FantasyLabs Projections when we run the Stacking Tool, and they don’t break the bank even with McDavid’s $9,000 salary. They’ll likely be a chalky target, but they’re also fine to build around given their recent form and flexibility.
