The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 13-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Jack Hughes ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Devils take on a Jets team that has allowed three or more goals n each of their last 11-games. That makes for a solid fantasy environment for Jack Hughes, who has been playing exceptionally well in the back half of the year. Hughes has scored multiple points in six of his last eight games and is trending in the top 10% in Corsi Rating and Shots on Net at center over the past month.
The FantasyLabs Model has Hughes rated out very highly based on recent form and matchup, topping the Player Ratings at center and coming in fifth in Ceiling projection. Hughes is doing everything for the Devils right now, who have scored five or more goals in four of their last seven games, making for a perfect way to begin lineups.
Top Value
Tim Stuetzle ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Ottawa Senators remain a little banged up in their top-six with Drake Batherson out. That’s led to more opportunity and ice-time for second-year player Tim Stuetzle, who comes into this game with six points in his last three games. The recent form is nice, but Stuetzle has been getting more ice lately. He played over 19 minutes in his previous game, the most he’s played in over 10 outings for the Senators.
We should expect his ice-time to continue to rise given his solid play, which would be excellent for DFS purposes given the matchup with the Kraken. Seattle remains second-to-last in goals allowed and has slipped all the way to 26th in penalty-kill rankings. Stuetzle has excelled on the man advantage this year, grabbing 14 of his 33 points on the power play. He rates out well in the FantasyLabs Model, where he has the second-highest Ceiling Projection of any center under $5,000 on DraftKings.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Conner ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) at New Jersey Devils
The Jets are coming off a six-goal effort in a win against Tampa Bay and now take on a Devils team that is a very favorable fantasy matchup for their top players. Kyle Conner ranks out first in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs and has scored over 20 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. The Jets winger is up to 34 goals on the season, and while he’s dropped back a bit in the Rocket Richard race, he will undoubtedly continue to see big minutes for Winnipeg down the stretch given where they sit in the standings.
Despite Conner’s significant volume and production of late, he still sits at a very affordable price tag, especially on DraftKings at $7,500. There are a lot of explosive wingers on this slate, but Conner’s volume and matchup make him a great way to start lineups and a preferred pay-up option.
Top Value
Anthony Beauvillier ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
If you want to stack a cheap winger alongside Conner, then looking to the Islanders’ top-liners is a good idea. We can target a couple of different names, but Anthony Beauvillier continues to stick out as one of the best price-per-dollar plays in the Isles’ top six. Beauvillier only has two goals over his last 12 games, but he’s been consistent in getting his shot through. He’s now recorded multiple shots on net in each of his previous eight starts and has recorded 10.0 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games as well.
He’s not the highest-rated player under $4,000 today we can find in the Model, but the matchup with Columbus is a huge factor. Nobody allows more shots on net or scoring chances than the Blue Jackets, and Beauvillier is shooting well below his career pace in shooting percentage. Positive regression should be headed his way soon. As a one-off target, he rates out as a solid upside play for stars and scrubs builds.
Defense
Top Play
Thomas Chabot ($6,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Ceiling Projections at defense are tight for the most part, with only the costly Roman Josi ($7,800 on DraftKings) sitting as a clear-cut top play. However, paying down to the next tier saves you a ton of cash, and there are some great matchups to target. Tomas Chabot is one of those next-tier players on defense who has a great matchup against the Kraken, a team that now sits sixth-last in penalty-kill efficiency.
Chabot has averaged nearly three minutes of power-play time per game over his last 10 starts and has also put up a stout 4.8 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over that span. He’s very reasonably priced on both sites, and grabbing a piece of the Senators can you save you a ton of salary on FanDuel in particular. Chabot’s a great way to maintain upside on defense while not spending through the roof.
Top Value
Ivan Provorov ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) at Florida Panthers
If we’re looking for a pure value play to round out lineups on defense, then it’s hard to do better than the Flyers Ivan Provorov. He’s played over three minutes on the man advantage for the Flyers in six of his last 10 games and has averaged a respectable 3.6 blocked shots + shots on net over that time frame.
The Flyers’ offense isn’t something we should be stacking most nights, but Provorov sticks out as an undervalued option. It’s his first time being under $5,000 on DraftKings in well over 10 games, and he’s one of the highest-rated players under $5,000. Given the power-play exposure he gets, it’s hard to find a better upside target in this price range.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jusse Saros ($8,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The spread at goalie today includes numerous big names priced up near $9,000 on DraftKings. We have lots of options, though, and swerving to Jusse Saros, who is fifth in Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs, saves us a ton of cash and preserves our upside.
Saros has rebounded well after a slow patch and has now stopped 42 of the last 43 shots he’s faced. The Predators also sit as -200 home favorites tonight, which will likely get overlooked with Toronto and Florida both listed at -375. Saros is playing well, facing a somewhat struggling Ducks team, and gives us a nice salary break off the other top names. He should be near the top of your list for goalie targets.
Anton Forsberg ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Senators come in as -134 favorites on the moneyline and face off against one of the weakest offenses in the league in Seattle. The worry today may not be with quality, as Anton Forsberg has been quite good for the Senators of late, posting a .936 save percentage over his last 10 games. The issue may be volume as Seattle only averages 28.4 shots per game, one of the worst marks in the league.
Luckily, the Senators give Forsberg’s upside a boost as one of the worst defensive teams in hockey, at least in terms of stopping shots from getting through. Forsberg looks well underpriced on FanDuel but rates out as a top value target on both sites.
Notable Stack
Wild L1 – Hartman – Kaprizov – Zuccarello
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We’ve managed to get this far in the article today without talking about the Wild’s offense and the fantastic matchup they have with the Red Wings, but let’s correct that error now. Detroit has allowed an abominable 36 goals over their last six games, and some quick math tells us that to a dreadful 6.0 goals-against average over that span. As a result, the Wild rate out very well in the Projected Player Model in our FantasyLabs Stacking Tool, coming out with the second-best projection behind Toronto but as a far better value proposition.
Kirill Kaprizov has been on a tear of late, and the fact we can land him at under $8,000 on DraftKings means you should be spending up for this line and stacking around him. The Wild stand out as an excellent target in all formats.
