The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sebastian Aho ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) @ Ottawa Senators
The Carolina Hurricanes take on a Senators team who have allowed the fifth-most shots against and goals against, per game, in the entire league. While there’s likely slightly better value among the top names at center, the upside with Sebastian Aho looks near unmatched on today’s slate given the opponent.
The Hurricanes center comes into this game ranked in the top-10 in Ceiling Projection in our NHL Models, and the Hurricanes own the second-highest implied total at 4.1 goals. Other big names have overshadowed Aho of late, so it’s easy to forget he comes in with four goals in his last five games and is shooting the puck with the same efficiency this year as some of the best goal-scorers in the league. With Carolina in an elite spot, his upside rivals the top players at the position. He’ll also likely not be that popular given all the big names to choose from.
Top Value
Ryan Strome ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) @ Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are coming off a terrible loss to the Calgary Flames, where they allowed 62 (yes 62) shots against. That will obviously have people licking their chops to roster the Rangers forwards in this spot, and their best value likely lies in second-line center Ryan Strome. The veteran is once again playing alongside an offensive dynamo in Artemi Panarin and sees regular power-play time for the Rangers as well, who are thin once you get past their top-six.
Strome has averaged just under a point-per-game in his last 10-starts and has clearly benefitted from having an elite winger back alongside him at regular strength. With Columbus allowing the fifth-most quality scoring chances this year (and most shots against per game by a wide margin), Strome looks like an easy value, especially at under $5,000 on DraftKings given his massive Bargain Rating.
Wing
Top Play
Filip Forsberg ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) @ Edmonton Oilers
Winger has plenty of intriguing names and some tasty matchups to pair alongside them. The Predators Filip Forsberg might have the best matchup of them all against an Oilers team who enters this contest allowing just under 33.0 shots against per game. Their penalty-kill has also regressed since the start of the season, and they now rank 12th-worst in the entire league.
Forsberg grades out fifth in Ceiling Projections today in our Models, and he’s in the top 5% in shot attempts at his position over the last month and top 1% in shot attempts on the power-play over that same span (via the Trends tool). Considering the plus matchup, he’s a tremendous upper-tier value and a massive bargain on DraftKings.
Top Value
Rickard Rakell ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) @ Montreal Canadiens
The Anaheim Ducks have cooled off a bit from a win-loss perspective, but they enter this game having scored 13 times over their last three games and went toe-to-toe with an elite Eastern Conference team yesterday in the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now they come further East and get the Montreal Canadiens as a reward.
Targeting some of the Ducks’ cheaper forwards has lots of appeal against a team like Montreal, and Rakell is a name that ranks out quite well in the Models. While he remains snake-bit from a goal-scoring perspective, over the last 15 games Rakall ranks in the top 5% in Corsi Rating and shots attempts at his position. A breakout should be coming soon, and there’s no reason it can’t happen Thursday in a great matchup vs. the Canadiens.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Oilers’ offense has shown some signs of turning things around over their last two games, and it wouldn’t shock many if they kept things rolling today. The matchup against an elite goaltender in Jusse Saros isn’t ideal, but it doesn’t mean we have to bypass all Edmonton players either. Darnell Nurse has landed just three points over his last 10 games, but he’s also averaged an elite 6.2 blocked shots + shots on goal over that same span.
Nurse’s production in the blocked shot department alone, where he’s hit the bonus in three of his last five games, is a great reason to consider him, but his price-point today is also simply out of whack with his entire production over the last couple of weeks. Nurse ranks out with the top projected point total of any player under $6,000 in salary on DraftKings, and he’s one of the best values on this slate regardless of position.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Lightning have the largest implied team total on the slate today at 4.3 goals. That means targeting some of their cheaper players, like Mikhail Sergachev, has lots of appeal. There will likely be plenty of assists to go around against New Jersey, who have allowed 3.95 goals against, per game, on the road this year.
Sergachev continues to get solid top-four opportunity for Tampa Bay and enters this game averaging 3.4 blocked shots + shots on goal per game. He’s also racked up eight assists over his last 10 games as well. He’s got the highest points projection of any player under $5,000 on defense in the NHL Models, making him a tremendous pay-down option for one of your defensive spots.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Lightning are massive home favorites today, sitting at around -333 on the moneyline at the time of writing. Generally, in these kinds of spots on big slates, we often get starters who go slightly under-owned compared to what they should be, and this is a great night to take advantage of the field potentially being a little light on Tampa Bay.
Andrei Vasilievskiy is also in net today, which makes this an easy decision. He’s ranked second in the Ceiling projection but has allowed four goals against in each of his last two starts. The Devils have scored two goals or fewer in four of their previous five games and make for solid opponents as they average around 32.0 shots per game. I feel good about paying up for the Tampa netminder today.
Top Value
Ilya Sorokin ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. L.A. Kings
The Islanders enter this game as small -137 favorites on the moneyline and face a Kings team with just one win in their last five games. The Kings have a negative -6.0 goal differential on the road and have been terrible on special teams in these spots too, with a 12.7% road power-play efficiency mark.
Ilya Sorokin rates out third in Ceiling Projection today, but he’s just the 12th-most expensive player at goalie on DraftKings. That makes him one of the best values of the day. He’s posted 20.0 or more points on DraftKings in three of his last four starts and has one of the best matchups on the board against a Kings team who is good at getting shots on net but terrible at converting chances (especially on the road).
Notable Stack
Penguins L1 – Sidney Crosby – Jake Guentzal – Bryan Rust
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
With the Flames lighting it up every night, this is likely a good time to pivot to another top line that may get a little less ownership in big fields. The Penguins’ top line remains one of the best in the league, and they have a fantastic matchup against Seattle, who remain one of the worst defensive teams by any metric. Seattle doesn’t just allow 3.5 goals per game, but they’ve regressed on special teams, too, where they now feature the 13th worst penalty-kill.
Sidney Crosby has been on a tear of late himself, with six goals and nine points over his last five games. Both of his wingers are now priced up to over $7,000 on DraftKings, but both have produced like elite wingers of late. The price increase should keep people off this trio, but the matchup screams upside. They rank out tops in the Projected Points Model in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool and make for an excellent stack to build around once again.
Photo Credit: Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Image. Pictured: Mikhail Sergachev
