The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Bruins have been in a great groove of late, scoring four or more goals in six of their last seven games and winning six of their previous seven games. A move to split up the Bruins’ big three has paid off, and while it’s led to a more balanced attack in Boston, we still have some great singular players to target here for daily fantasy.
Patrice Bergeron leads the FantasyLabs Model in Ceiling Projections for both major sites, and it’s easy to see why. He’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal + blocked shots over his last 10
games and takes on a Flyers team who has allowed the most scoring chances against this year in the entire league (and most shots on goal per game). Bergeron and the Bruins offense is climbing all major offensive categories, and he makes for a great value at under $7,000 on DraftKings.
Top Value
Vincent Trochek ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
There are plenty of weak teams on the slate tonight — and plenty of weaker teams in the league right now — which perhaps deserves more discussion about the lack of parity in the NHL. Regardless, the Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets sets up as a pretty big mismatch, with the Hurricanes coming in as -270 favorites with a massive 4.1 implied team total. With that in mind, I certainly don’t mind targeting a second-line player like Vincent Trochek. He can be streaky, but he’s fully capable of putting in a massive ceiling game against a weak opponent like Columbus, who allows the second-most shots on net per game.
Trochek grades out well in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs, where he’s ranked in the top-10 in Ceiling Projection for the slate. While you’d like to see more consistent production from the center, he’s still extremely affordable at under $5,500 on both sites. He also gets you good exposure to the Hurricanes power-play, which is top 10 in efficiency this year. Trochek’s a good value piece and solid way to get exposure to the Hurricanes offense.
Wing
Top Play
Alex DeBrincat ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens continue to be a steaming dumpster fire on defense, and things only got worse for them in their last game when Jake Allen went down with an injury. That means we’ll again see one of Montreal’s third-stringers in net against Chicago, giving a player like Alex DeBrincat massive upside.
The Blackhawks’ winger is playing around 20 minutes per game and averages healthy power-play minutes, which is a huge boost against a team like Montreal, whose penalty-kill is fifth-worst in the league. DeBrincat has nine goals in his last nine games and should be looking at this game as a shot to gain some ground in the goal-scoring race. He’s rated in the top six in Ceiling Projections on both sites and a tremendous upside value on DraftKings at under $7,000.
Top Value
Anthony Beauvillier ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Islanders’ offense has finally started to take a bit of a turn for the better. One player they desperately need to keep scoring is Anthony Beuvillier, who enters this game averaging 3.75 shots on net over his last four starts with goals in two of his previous four games.
Despite the slow start to the year, the recent uptick for Beauvillier has him popping a little bit in the Model on FantasyLabs today, as he comes in with the best Ceiling Projection of any player under $4,000 in salary on DraftKings. The Devils also make for a great opponent as they feature weaker goaltending, give up lots of shots on net, and are super depleted on defense with several players out due to Covid. The Islanders winger is a top value play for today’s big slate.
Defense
Top Play
Victor Hedman ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Lightning take on the Canucks today, who feature in the worst penalty-kill in the league. It’s a tough spot for the Canucks, but one we can take advantage of by loading up on a couple of Tampa’s power-play specialists. The spot may be best for Victor Hedman, as he still anchors the Lightning’s PP1 and gives us excellent fantasy production outside of his point production. Hedman is averaging just under 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game. He’s rated second in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today in Ceiling Projections and certainly gets a big boost from the opponent.
Vancouver has improved under their new head coach but still features some of the league’s worst special teams. Hedman has actually averaged under his point per game average over the last 10 games, but this is an excellent spot for him to have some positive regression in the point department. He’s a solid pay-up target today.
Top Value
Brady Skjei ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Hurricanes again have a huge implied point total on this slate of 4.1 goals, and that means that targeting their cheaper value plays is a good idea here, as the opportunities should be abundant in this game. On defense, no one has been hotter than Brady Skjei, who comes into this game with four goals in his last three games. The hot streak is great, but Skjei is also averaging around 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal over his previous 10 games and is playing consistently over 20 minutes a game.
His price is still dirt cheap, so targeting him in these great match-ups (Columbus allows the second-most shots per game and has the fifth-worst goals-against average) is a good idea. He rates out as the best value in Ceiling Projections under $4,000 on DraftKings today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Ilya Sorokin ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Islanders come into this game having now won three of their last four games and sit as big -210 favorites here against the Devils. New Jersey is dealing with a significant outbreak of Covid/injuries, specifically targeting their defensive core. That obviously puts starter Ilya Sorokin in a great spot to take advantage.
The Islanders goalie has played much better of late and comes into this game averaging 13.7 DraftKings points over his last 10 games, with a .916 save percentage over that same span. Sorokin rates out third in the Player Ratings and generally is an affordable stud you should be able to rely on. He’s a better bargain on FanDuel today, but with the Devils super banged up, he’s a good value on both sites.
Adin Hill ($7,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The San Jose Sharks come into this game with the Rangers as +105 home underdogs, but both teams have implied team totals of under 3.0 goals. Adin Hill has held up well over his last few starts with James Reimer out and is now on a three-game win streak where he’s allowed just two goals in each of those three starts.
The San Jose netminder has an excellent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated goalie in the Ceiling Projections with a salary under $7,000. New York is also likely to be without their best goalie in Igor Shesterkin again, which only gives Hill a better shot at grabbing the win bonus. He’s more of a tournament play but should be a lower-owned one considering the spot. He makes for a good boom or bust target in net on this big slate.
Notable Stack
Bruins L1 and L2
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Both of the Bruins’ top lines grade out exceptionally well today in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool, with the top-line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and Craig Smith coming out tops. It’s likely not a surprise to many to hear this after the line produced a hat-trick last night. Marchand now has an incredible seven goals in his previous three games and faces a Philadelphia team who allows the most shots on net per game. They’ve allowed the fourth-most scoring chances against this season as well.
If we’re thinking about big fields, though, the better approach may be to bypass this Bruins top-line and stack their second-line instead. David Pastrnak still offers similar/better upside to Marchand and has played better since being split up from Marchand, with four goals in his last three games. Seeing the offense switch back to Pastrnak, who is paired with a cheap Taylor Hall on the second-line, wouldn’t be shocking against a team like Philly. The Bruins L2 is a good way to attack GPPs and rates out as a top-five play in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool.
