The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($7,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) at Seattle Kraken
The Bruins face a Kraken team who have been abysmal in many different ways of late. They’ve allowed 23 goals in their last five games, which have been all losses. As such, we should not be surprised to see the Bruins check in with a 3.4 implied goal total, which puts them near the top of the slate. Boston should be getting Brad Marchand back as well, which only tops up the upside for center Patrice Bergeron who looks completely mispriced on FanDuel — and still very cheap on DraftKings — today.
Bergeron recorded his first multi-point game in over 10 starts against Colorado his last time out and has still been very busy as a high-volume shooter, averaging 3.7 shots on net in his previous 10 games. He ranks out third in the Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs at his position. He also seems due for more positive regression on the scoresheet in the short term, especially now that he has his favorite winger back in Marchand. Start with Bergeron at center, which saves you loads of cash off the top names.
Top Value
Mikael Backlund ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
The Flames are another offense we should not feel shame in targeting. While their top-line remains one of the best in daily fantasy hockey, Calgary’s secondary scorers have been viable fantasy options this year, with second-line center Mikael Backlund specifically becoming a good nightly value target whenever the Flames are on the slate.
Backlund is averaging a stout 3.2 shots on net per game and has seen his point production rise of late, too, grabbing seven points in his last 10 games. Two of those seven points have come on the power play, and the Flames matchup against one of the worst penalty-kills in the league in Vancouver. Backlund rates out with the best Ceiling Projection on FantasyLabs at under $4,000 on DraftKings and makes for a great value target at center.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Huberdeau ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
It would not be a good look if we went through the entire article and didn’t mention at least one Panthers forward. Florida has a massive 4.9 implied goal total today against Columbus and have been absolute beasts at home, sporting a +51 goal differential in 27 home starts. Jonathan Huberdeau may not rank as highly as some other wingers on this slate, but he’s affordable and gives you the best all-around exposure to the Panthers’ offense.
Huberdeau is averaging 16.7 DraftKings points at home this year (vs. 11.2 on the road) and plays alongside a scoring center in Sam Bennett, who is also a great target on DraftKings at barely over $5,000. Huberdeau’s priced as just the 10th-most expensive winger on DraftKings, where he and Bennett rate out as an excellent stacking duo.
Top Value
Tyler Toffoli ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
We’ll head back to the Flames offense for some more value at forward in the form of the newly acquired Tyler Toffoli. Two goals in four games is an excellent start for the former Canadien, who saw his minutes jump in his last outing. Toffoli may be playing on a third line at even strength, but he’s been thrust into a more prominent special teams role. That’s huge against a team like Vancouver, who has the worst penalty-kill in hockey and takes the 14th most penalties in the league.
Toffoli rates out as one of the best upside plays in the FantasyLabs Model under $4,000 today on DraftKings and seems destined to start grabbing us a few more shots on net. As a pure upside target for GPPs, he’s one of the best options for this slate, which has a ton of high-powered offenses attached to it.
Defense
Top Player
Aaron Ekblad ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
You should be aiming to get multiple Panthers in your lineup on Thursday. Aaron Ekblad has been a significant catalyst for the Panthers of late, entering this contest with 13 points in his last 10 games. The veteran defenseman has averaged well over a point-per-game at home this year, where Florida has averaged an insane 39 shots on net per game as a team.
The fact that we can get Ekblad at under $7,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel should have us salivating at the ability to stack the Panthers’ power play in several different ways with him as our core member. Ekblad unsurprisingly rates out as a top-five play in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Model for both major sites and is a great way to pay up without over-extending yourself on defense.
Top Value
Ryan Pulock ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at San Jose Sharks
Targeting the Islanders’ offense against a weaker Sharks team is at least one way you can go about being contrarian. San Jose has allowed 19 goals against over their last five games and seen their goaltending struggle over the last month or so. Ryan Pulock isn’t exactly bursting at the seems with offensive potential, but any kind of garbage assist or goal would undoubtedly send him towards being one of the best values on the slate.
He’s averaging 4.4 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over his last 10 starts and remains a blueline option for the Islanders special teams. He’s scored over 30 points in a season three times previously, so some positive regression on the scoresheet seems likely to be headed his way. In a solid matchup, taking advantage of the value he offers seems wise.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Many of Thursday’s top goalies are either resting or have poor matchups against good offensive opponents. The moneyline on the Rangers only sits at -125, but they are at home and should be starting Igor Shesterkin, who has averaged over 20.0 DraftKings Points and has a .940 save percentage in 17 home starts this year.
The Rangers may not be heavy favorites, but Shesterkin still ranks out with the best upside of anyone at his position. That shows you how dominant he’s been as a fantasy starter. There’s no reason not to take advantage of the gift prices on the Rangers goalie, who continues to be underpriced on DraftKings.
Top Value
Ilya Sorokin ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) at San Jose Sharks
Ilya Sorkin and the Islanders are -134 road favorites, making him a solid back in DFS. He rates out with the best Ceiling Projections of any goalie under $7,500 on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs Model, and he’s posted over 15.0 DraftKings points and a save percentage of .920, or better in three straight starts.
The Islanders have looked good against weaker West coast teams so far on this road trip, so going with their starter for fantasy purposes — who looks well underpriced — fees like a smart play.
Notable Stack
Blue Jackets L1 — Boone Jenner – Jakub Voracek – Patrik Laine
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We’ve mentioned the Panthers a lot today, but their rivals on the other side of this game have a lot of fantasy potential as well. Stacking-wise, the trio of Laine, Jenner and Voracek have correlated as well as any trio in hockey of late, as Columbus has been featuring all three with big minutes and using them on their first-unit power play. The increase in offensive starts for a player like Voracek is enormous, and playing alongside great scorers in those types of situations dramatically increases his value. He’s only $3,300 on DraftKings, which brings down the total cost of this stack.
Florida has allowed over 3.0 goals per game over their last 10-starts and gave up four goals to Columbus the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks back. This trio ranks out as one of the best value options in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool and will allow you to add in a couple of the studs we mentioned above. Don’t be afraid to build around the Columbus top trio for some value/upside benefit.
