The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) @ Montreal Canadiens
The Avalanche got Nathan MacKinnon back yesterday and then promptly got blown out by rival Toronto in a road game. MacKinnon played over 21 minutes of ice and landed five shots on goal, which are really the only stats we should care about here. It’s clear he’s no worse for wear after a long injury layoff, and he tops the FantasyLabs Model today in Ceiling Projections by over 3.0 points on both sites.
MacKinnon leads in both goal rate and shots on goal (4.09 per game) in long-term form and faces off against a Montreal team who has been one of the most giving opponents in the NHL this year for fantasy. MacKinnon and Colorado’s ninth-ranked powerplay get a massive boost here against a Montreal team who is second last in penalty-kill and in goals against per game. Paying up for MacKinnon today won’t be contrarian but may be necessary given the opponent Colorado has on tap.
Top Value
Vincent Trochek ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
A matchup against the Senators is on the table, meaning we certainly want to target some of the Hurricanes’ top-six forwards. Vincent Trochek ranks out seventh in the Ceiling Projections today for both sites and gives us good exposure to the Hurricanes’ top six and their first unit powerplay. It has been a rough go from a fantasy perspective for Trochek of late, who is scoreless in his last seven games but is still averaging over 17 minutes per game.
The Hurricanes offense has dried up of late, and they come in having lost four of their last five. The Senators are a cure for any team’s offensive woes, though, and continue to get worse in the goals-against department as they’ve now allowed 4.0 per game. Target Trochek and the entire Carolina second line today.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($9,200 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) @ Nashville Predators
The Bruins’ David Pastrnak comes into this game averaging 5.3 shots on goal over his last 10 games and ranked in the top 1% at his position in shots on goal over the last month, in the FantasyLabs ProTrends. Pastrnak heads an elite group of wingers in many categories today but really tops out on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating and the best Player Rating of any winger today in the Projected Points Model.
The Predators aren’t the most positive matchup on the board today, but Pastrnak’s shot rate and elite usage stats aren’t one we should shy away from here either. With no Brad Marchand in the lineup in their last game, he fired a season-high nine shots on net and is still 6% under his career shooting percentage on the season. I’d keep targeting Pastrnak in the short-term here as he provides an incredibly safe floor and should show some positive goal-scoring regression soon.
Top Value
Jason Robertson ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Stars’ first line has been on fire of late, and Jason Robertson is a good way to get exposure to the trio today in a solid matchup against the Blue Jackets. The second-year player has now recorded six points in his last four games and ranks out fifth in the overall Player Ratings on DraftKings today.
There’s been no stopping the Dallas first line, and Robertson has been producing for fantasy purposes despite a lower shot on goal volume of late. He does rank fifth in CorsiFor percentage over the last 12 months, and so we may even see him pick up the pace in that department soon too. He’s a great value on DraftKings at under $5,000, but the Stars first line is still a bargain on FanDuel today too, and may get lower-ownership numbers there.
Defense
Top Play
Zach Werenski ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) at Dallas Stars
Zach Werenski has turned into a true fantasy stud this year on defense. He enters this game averaging an elite 5.2 blocked shots + shots on goals over his last 10 games and is ranked top-five in Player Ratings on both sites today in the FantasyLabs Model.
The Stars penalty-kill ranks just middle of the pack this year, and they don’t feature elite goaltending, so this really is a pretty solid spot to deploy Wenerski, who has a massive 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel today where he’s just $6,200. With many of the other top choices on defense priced well above $7,000 on both sites, targeting Werenski here is a solid move.
Top Value
Jaccob Slavin ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Hurricanes take on the Senators today at home and are projected with a 4.0 implied goal total, so there’s no position we should overlook when scouting their players. Jaccob Slavin doesn’t project as an elite goal scorer, but he is averaging right around 0.5 points per game (despite not having a goal on the year) and is also averaging 4.2 shots on goal + blocked shots over his last 10 games as well.
The American continues to play big minutes on the Hurricanes’ top pairing and should see really solid usage today as the Hurricanes now have three of their top-six defensemen on the injury list. A matchup with the Senators here also means there’s a great chance we grab a point from Slavin as well, who is also well overdue to find his first goal of the season.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Anderson ($8,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Hurricanes have lost four of their last five games but enter this slate as massive -315 favorites on the Money Line, as of writing. Frederik Anderson has cooled off a bit over his last couple of starts, but that short-term sentiment may even work to keep his ownership down today against an Ottawa team who ranks near the bottom in pretty much every single defensive and offensive category in the league right now.
The Senators rank fourth-last in expected goal rate and have scored two or fewer goals in their last three games. This isn’t a tricky spot, but it’s one we should be interested in regardless of format, as favorites in the NHL rarely get this big. Anderson ranks out first in Ceiling Projections on FantasyLabs for both sites and first in Player Ratings on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating.
Top Value
Marc-Andre Fleury ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) at Washington Capitals
The Blackhawks have quietly gone 6-3 in their last nine games, and Marc-Andre Fleury comes into this game against the Capitals, having posted a .939 save percentage over his last 10 games. Maybe Fleury is trying to up his trade value, but he’s giving Chicago a shot at the win every night and faces off against a Capitals team who are likely reeling after giving up a 4-1 lead against Florida in the third period of their last game.
The Blackhawks sit at around +160 on the Money Line right now, but Fleury himself ranks out seventh in Ceiling Projections and is predicted for over 29-saves today. He’s the perfect upside target in GPPs with low salaries on both sites that will help keep average salaries down.
Notable Stack
Stars L1 – Roope Hintz – Jason Robertson – Joe Pavelski
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
This Stars’ line projects out well in multiple settings in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool but specifically rank out first under Player Ratings. I’ve highlighted Roope Hintz multiple times already in this article over the last two weeks, and the Finnish center has been on a disgustingly good tear of late, with 10 goals and 14 points over his last 10 games.
Positive regression is in play for Hintz (who didn’t score in his first 10+ games), and he’s dragging underpriced wingers like Robertson (mentioned above) and Joe Pavelski into fantasy relevance every night too. Pavelski has quietly put up 12 points in his last 10 games and now faces a Columbus team who has allowed the 13th most scoring chances and seventh-most goals against per game.
Columbus has been allowing 33+ shots against on the regular, and both their goalies have struggled of late, making this another great spot to deploy the best value stack in NHL DFS at the moment.
