The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a four-game main slate starting at 2 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Anze Kopitar ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
You could make a pretty convincing argument that the Los Angeles Kings wouldn’t be in the position they are in now without captain Anze Kopitar.
Kopitar does it all for the Kings, earning an excellent reputation for being a two-way player. The two-time Selke winner continues to impress with his advanced metrics, out-shotting, out-possessing, and out-chancing his opponents in scoring and high-danger chances while starting only 47.0% of his shifts in the attacking zone. As a result of these efforts, Kopitar leads the Kings in scoring and paces the forwards corps in ice time.
The Kings center remains on the wrong side of expected values, underachieving compared to his advanced metrics. Kopitar projects as one of the best options up the middle on tonight’s slate, making him our top play at center.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
There are very few top-line centers that are as affordable as Ryan O’Reilly is on tonight’s slate, making him an attractive fantasy option when the St. Louis Blues take on the Winnipeg Jets.
The Jets have been lacking in their defensive zone coverage over their recent sample, setting O’Reilly and the Blues up for a strong offensive showing. Opponents have attempted 13 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in five of the Jets’ past six games. That’s good news for the Blues captain, who has five points over his previous five games, recording 11 shots on net over his last three.
O’Reilly’s value is more pronounced on DraftKings slates, but nevertheless, he should reach his fantasy ceiling against the Jets.
Wing
Top Play
Max Pacioretty ($8,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The Vegas Golden Knights have been on a monumental run, winning seven of their past eight games and scoring three or more goals in all but one of those games. We’re expecting them to continue that run against the New York Islanders on Sunday.
The timing of the Knights’ improved play coincides with the return of Max Pacioretty, who has been outstanding since returning to action. Patches has 16 points in the 11 games he’s played since November 24, recording multi-point games in six of those 11 contests. The veteran winger has metrics to back up sustained production, as Pacioretty has the best expected goals-for rating among players who have played more than five games with a 62.0% rating.
Pacioretty has been held pointless of the previous two games, but he can take advantage of an Islanders team that hasn’t been good at home this season.
Top Value
Anthony Beauvillier ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Opposite of Pacioretty and the Golden Knights is Anthony Beauvillier. The former first-round selection has struggled this season, but he’s an ideal progression candidate over his coming games.
Beauvillier has substantially underachieved relative to his production metrics this season. The 24-year-old has just eight points through 28 games this season despite putting forth some solid offensive ratings. Beauvillier has out-chanced his opponents in scoring and high-danger chances, ranking fifth and seventh on the Islanders in absolute opportunities this season. That has resulted in an expected goals-for rating of 52.1%, well ahead of his actual 42.9% rating.
The Golden Knights have not been immune to poor defensive zone coverage, which could cost them against Beauvillier and the Isles.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Pittsburgh Penguins will have metrics working in their favor when they take on the New Jersey Devils on Sunday night, resulting in another elite fantasy performance from Kris Letang.
Letang has been one of the best Penguins this season, ranking near the top of most team metrics. The two-time All-Star has a 60.2% expected goals-for percentage, leading the team in on-ice shots, scoring and high-danger chances. Letang has translated that to one goal and 19 assists, pacing the Pens in assists and power-play assists.
The Devils have been sliding recently, getting outplayed in four of their past five. Letang and the Penguins will be ready to roll, making him a top option on the blue line.
Top Value
Josh Morrissey ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
Jets defender Josh Morrissey is riding a modest two-game point streak but has analytics working for him, implying that we should expect increased output from him over the coming games.
Morrissey has the fourth-best offensive rating among Jets players this season, posting a 55.2% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths. What’s reflected in that rating are his on-ice metrics of 348 scoring opportunities and 148 quality chances, both of which rank second on the team. Morrissey is trending in the right direction, attempting two or more shots on net in three of his past four games.
The Blues have allowed 10 or more quality chances in three straight games, opportunities they can’t afford to give up to the high-flying Jets. Morrissey’s salary doesn’t reflect his projections, making him a value play on tonight’s slates.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Blues have a tendency to get outplayed over their recent sample, giving up more chances than they create. That trend could continue on Sunday, helping Connor Hellebuyck to another above-average performance.
After an extended run of exceptional play, the American tendy has fallen off the pace recently. Hellebuyck has posted below-average save percentages in three of his past five, winning just one game. Nevertheless, Hellebuyck projects as a top option between the pipes against a Blues team that has recorded more than nine high-danger chances just once over the previous nine contests.
Hellebuyck has been much better at home this season, posting a 92.0% save percentage and going 7-5-1. The former Vezina Trophy winner projects one of the best available goalies on Sunday’s slate.
Jonathan Quick ($7,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
The Kings will likely be turning to Jonathan Quick on both nights of their back-to-back after placing Cal Petersen in COVID-19 protocols yesterday. That should benefit the Kings as they look to bounce back from last night’s drubbing.
Quick has been effective over his recent sample, recording above-average save percentages in three of his previous five outings, including three wins and one shutout. His strong form should help him limit a Washington Capitals attack that has recorded two or fewer goals at five-on-five in four of their past six outings.
The two-time Stanley Cup champion has been effective when called upon to make consecutive starts, posting a 91.9% save percentage and going 6-6-2. Quick is a low-cost option with upside on tonight’s slate.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are several teams who rate highly in our projections tonight, but we landed on a Winnipeg Jets stack at home against the Blues.
One of the factors contributing to that stack is that we’ve keyed in on the Blues as regression candidates over their coming games. St. Louis has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in six of their past nine, a span in which they have six wins.
We’ve highlighted a pair of players worth including on your Jets stack on the back end. As noted, Josh Morrissey should continue his strong play, while Connor Hellebuyck is in a good spot on home ice tonight. There are a plethora of Jets forwards that could reach their fantasy ceilings Sunday, but the stack we’ve included features Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers. Both forwards skate together on the Jets’ top line and spend time on the Jets power play. They rank highly in our projections and have advanced metrics supporting ongoing success.
Betting market confidence is high on the Jets. Although they opened as modest favorites in the -125 range, they have been bought up to -140. That is also reflected in our projections, rating the Jets as one of the best fantasy stacks Sunday.
