The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Conner McDavid ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
We have a big eight-game slate on tap, but the choice at the top is still relatively easy. Connor McDavid is playing and taking on the Vancouver Canuck, a team that ranks out with the 11th-worst penalty-kill and has given up the seventh-most scoring chances against this year.
McDavid rates out as the top play tonight in Ceiling Projections in the Projected Points Model and is a huge bargain on DraftKings, where he’s likely to push for high ownership. Even in the Oilers’ first loss of the year, McDavid managed two points and a goal, and he’s even started to close the gap on Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews in shots on goal per game in long-term form. In short-term form, he’s top 1% in shots on net over the last month.
The dynamics on the two big sites are a little different, and he’s likely easier to be overweight-on on FanDuel. Still, McDavid remains the most consistent player in NHL DFS and likely brings the thunder again tonight in a great spot.
Top Value
Evan Rodrigues ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Penguins are likely getting Sidney Crosby (questionable) back tonight, which should be a great thing for Evan Rodrigues, who skated on the top line with Crosby in practice yesterday. Rodrigues comes into this game averaging 3.2 shots on goal for the season and has seen increased exposure this year in terms of regular strength and special teams minutes. While his role is going to change here in the next couple of games, as the Penguins are also likely to get Jeff Carter back soon, too, being on a line with Crosby isn’t going to hurt his upside for fantasy purposes.
The Devils remain a team with depth issues on the backend, both in net and on defense, and have allowed four or more goals against now in two of their last three games. They also still rank out with the fourth-worst penalty-kill in the league after having the worst PK last year.
Rodrigues has strong ratings in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model on both sites today and makes for a solid value that you could also think about using in an affordable mini-stack with Crosby or Jake Guentzel, depending on how the injury news works out.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Conner ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) at San Jose Sharks
Kyle Conner has had a fantastic start to the year. The Jets winger is doing a little bit of everything as he grabbed three assists in his last game, bringing his point total on the year to 13. Not known as a playmaker, Conner has carried the Jets offense so far in 2021-2022 and ranks out with the fourth-best Ceiling Projection on both sites, no small feat considering we have the Bruins, Avalanche, and Leafs on this slate.
Conner may not top the projections, but he does rate out in the top five in almost every major category long-term, including shots on net and Consistency Rating. The Sharks have started the season well but have taken losses now in three straight games and feature one of the weaker goaltending duos in the league.
Despite the great start, Conner may not even be that heavily owned on FanDuel, where his price has him over $8,500, and he’s the third most-expensive winger on the slate. He and the Jets first-line set up as a nice pivot stack in big field GPPs.
His $7,400 salary on DraftKings makes him easier to fit in for cash game purposes, where his short-term form makes him a solid bargain on that site.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The Red Wings have inserted Lucas Raymond directly into their top six to start the year, and the results have been great for fantasy purposes. The rookie is seeing top powerplay minutes and is averaging a point per game through eight games. It’s not the hugest sample size, but it’s enough to tell us that Raymond can be successful in this role and that we should be targeting him when the price is right.
For this slate, he rates out inside the top 10 on both sites in the Ceiling Projection on FantasyLabs — making his sub-$5,000 salary also look like a great bargain. Raymond and the Wings are big underdogs against Toronto, but with how poorly the Leafs have started the year (allowing over 3.0 goals per game and the third-most scoring chances against), chasing his cheap salary as a value option still makes good sense.
Defense
Top Play
Tyson Barrie ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Even though the Oilers have started giving more minutes to the young and talented Evan Bouchard, I don’t mind going back to Tyson Barrie as a play now that his salary has dipped below $5,000 on DraftKings. Barrie and the Oilers have an implied team total of 3.3 goals in this spot, and Barrie ranks out fifth in Ceiling Projection on this slate.
We know he’s more of a points-reliant defenseman than most elite defensemen, but he’s still holding down the fort as the main quarterback on the Oilers’ league-leading powerplay. So while his floor totals may not be as high as other pay-up options, we should take advantage of the value we’re getting here when looking for players with great upside compared to their price.
He makes playing Conner McDavid all that easier tonight — as well as using Barrie — who correlates well with McDavid on the powerplay. This brings down the effective cost of an Oilers stack.
Top Value
Mike Matheson ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) at New Jersey Devils
Mike Matheson has been screaming up the ratings in the FantasyLabs Models of late. Matheson’s main attraction here is undoubtedly his price, which remains below $4,000 on both sites, but he is showing that he’s got some elite upside brewing with the increased opportunity he’s getting. He’s averaging right around 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game and does rank in the top five on both sites in terms of Ceiling Projections today in the Projected Points Model.
Matheson has seen his time on ice increase of late and will likely see good ice in this spot again (including powerplay time) with Kris Letang out. The Devils are an atrocious team in all facets right now and are allowing teams to convert on their powerplays against them at an over 40% clip. Everything we have on FantasyLabs says to take the savings here and look to pay up in other spots.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Mikko Koskinen ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) at Vancouver Canucks
The Oilers enter this road game against the Canucks as -143 road favorites, which is solid on a night where we don’t have any favorites coming in with odds shorter than -190. Mikko Koskinen can be a roller coaster for daily fantasy as he’s prone to terrible games but also brings with him big shot expectations. The Oilers have allowed the most shots against in the league thus far at 37.0 per game, and Koskinen is predicted here for 34.4 shots against.
The Oilers’ netminder carries solid Ceiling Projections, as you can imagine, and also carries the best overall rating in the Projected Points Model on DraftKings for today. Vancouver sets up as a great opponent here, too, as they attempt over 31 shots per game but average less than 3.0 goals. Koskinen has the best opponent-adjusted Plus/Minus Rating in the Model as a result.
The bust factor here is admittedly greater than with many starters, but Koskinen’s heavy workload also makes him an elite play tonight.
Top Value
Carter Hart ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
Both of the Flyers goalies have played well of late, with Carter Hart coming off a 34-save performance against the vaunted Oilers offense. Hart held the Oilers to their lowest goal tally of the year, so it’s a pretty big accomplishment and something he’ll likely be looking to build on against a less ferocious offense in Calgary.
The Flyers enter this game as +132 underdogs, but that risk is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the Flyers starter also has a Predicted Shot Total of 34.1 in the FantasyLabs Model today. The Flyers have tightened the ship defensively a little vs. last season and rank in the top half of the league in penalty-kill vs. being second-last in that stat last year.
Taking the big savings on Hart here could be a great way to approach GPP lineups. The Flames aren’t big home favorites and could be in a letdown spot after coming home after a five-game road trip.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Penguins L1 – Jake Guentzel – Evan Rodrigues – Sidney Crosby (questionable)
As mentioned above, the Penguins take on the Devils today, so we should be taking a hard look at their first-liners against the worst penalty-kill in the league. I made the case for Evan Rodrigues above, and using him with the other Penguins first-liners brings down our effective stack cost by a big margin here.
Jake Guentzel could be a bit under-owned in this spot against New Jersey too. He’s going to take the first-line minutes, and PP1 usage at wing — and could have one of the best playmakers in the world back feeding him the puck here. Guentzel and Crosby have been great when paired together, and Crosby didn’t take the optional skate this morning (often reserved for players not playing), so while he remains a game-time decision, right now, it does look like he’s more likely to play than not.
Crosby’s only $5,500 on DraftKings, so he’s not even going to pull up the overall cost of our stack either. Expect him to at least get good powerplay minutes here as the Penguins look to give him soft, offensive minutes in his first game back.
Using these three saves us cash to after other elite duos in mini-stacks to round out our lineups as well, making this a great value trio to attack with on Saturday.
