The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Penguins
The Leafs are coming off a bad home loss to the San Jose Sharks. While they may be on a back-to-back here, I still like targeting the Leafs forwards for a quick bounce-back. Auston Matthews remains the clear elite choice at center tonight as he comes in with the best Ceiling Projection in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs tonight.
Matthews has yet to record a goal in two games played this season. Still, he’s already averaging 5.5 shots on net on the year and leads the slate in terms of Consistency Rating at his position — which tells us how often a player has produced within a standard deviation of his expected points over the last year.
The Penguins have started the season playing inspired, but this is also a team we should be itching to target for fantasy purposes as the Penguins enter this game down their top three centers. Matthews’ long-term form continues to make him the top dog at his position, and this early in the season, I wouldn’t be worried about fatigue on the back-to-back games at all.
Pay up here for the Leafs’ top center if you can.
Top Value
Tage Thompson ($4,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) at New Jersey Devils
The Sabres forwards offer us some good value tonight, especially against a weak defensive team like the Devils. New Jersey is coming off a 4-1 loss to the Capitals, where backup netminder Scott Wedgewood allowed four goals on just 27 shots faced. New Jersey is also suffering from injuries at net (Mackenzie Blackwood is still out) and up front now with Jack Hughes on IR.
The Devils rated out with the worst penalty-kill in the league last year, too and Tage Thompson, who remains under $5,000 on both sites tonight, is a big part of the Sabres PP1 unit, which is a great spot here. Thompson already has one PPG goal on the season and comes in ranked ninth in his position in shots on goal per game over the last 12 months. Short-term, Thompson has also seen his shots on goal rate rise through four games as he’s averaging 4.5 SOG on the season.
The Sabres forwards all have strong Ratings tonight in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model and should get a boost here from their opponent, who are banged up at multiple key positions now. Thompson is seeing solid upward trends in his production in 2021 so far and makes for a very easy cheap stacking target (see below) with any of his line-mates on this slate.
Wing
Top Play
Andrei Svechnikov ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Hurricanes Andrei Svechnikov looks like a player on the verge of a massive breakout season. The 23-year-old has already piled up four goals in three games and has a match-up on this slate with the Blue Jackets that we should be very happy about. The Russian ranks out well in both long-term form (he’s got the sixth-best CorsiFor rating at wing tonight) and short term, as he’s top 5% in terms of shots on goal landed at his position over the last month, in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs as well.
Columbus has received some good goaltending to start the year (and I even don’t hate targeting their goalie as a start in some GPPs), but this damn will eventually break as the Blue Jackets remain a team allowing a ton of rubber on net at over 34 shots on goal per game so far in 2021.
Svechnikov and the Hurricane forwards can be stacked on either site, but he’s an elite upper-tier value on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating in the FantasyLabs Models and sets up as a great core to build around for cash/core lineups today.
Top Value
Matt Duchene ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) at Winnipeg Jets
Matt Duchene rates out quite well for tonight and comes in with a solid rating in the Projected Points Model on FantasyLabs — specifically on FanDuel, where he’s got the eighth-best rating today at wing. Duchene has been a bitter disappointment on the Predators for the most part, but he maintains a very solid long-term CorsiFor rating (12th best at wing today) and averages well over 2.0 shots on goals over that same span.
The upside nights are always lurking with a player like Duchene, and the Predators really don’t have anyone else to turn to, so even if they wanted to limit Duchene, they’re not going to. He remains entrenched in the top six and is a part of the PP1 unit, where he gets time alongside elite producers like Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg. For his part, Duchene is actually trending well to start the season and is inside the top 10% at his position in shots for the month, while he’s also already landed a PPG (admittedly, his only one of the year).
A solid matchup against the Jets, who have allowed 34 shots a game so far, is the icing on the cake. Duchene’s a great value tonight whether you choose to stack the Predators or not.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) at Winnipeg Jets
As mentioned above, the Jets haven’t exactly started the season out gangbusters defensively, as they’re allowing a bunch of shots on goal per game and enter this meeting with the Predators with the second-worst penalty-kill in the league, which is operating at just 56% efficiency. That number will likely come up soon, but this remains a team happy to get in shootouts and worth targeting with the opposing team’s powerplay units.
Roman Josi remains one of the most elite producers on the backend and comes into this slate averaging well over 3.0 shots per game in long-term form. Short term, he ranks out in the top 1% of his position in shots landed in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs over the last month, and has averaged well over 4.0 SOG in four games this year.
He’s got the second-highest Ceiling Projection at his position for this slate and also makes for an easy stacking target with some of the cheaper Predator forwards (one who is mentioned directly above). Don’t be afraid to pay up here, as Josi could certainly post a big night given how well he’s trending and how poorly the Jets special teams have played to start the year.
Top Value
Ryan Pulock ($4,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
There aren’t a ton of super cheap defensemen on this slate that look worth chasing, but the bigger game selection means there are lots of mid to mid/lower-tier defensemen who look like screaming values. Ryan Pulock is certainly one of them as the Islanders defenseman has an excellent match-up here against what is truly a hapless Coyotes team.
Arizona has allowed a 66% conversion rate this far to opposing power plays, a spot where Pulock has averaged over a minute and a half of ice time for the Islanders over the last 12 months. Even if he doesn’t see a ton of special teams time, Pulock is averaging over 4.0 blocked shots and shots on goal combined (he’s ninth-best on the slate in that stat) and is trending very well to start the year as he ranks in the top 5% of the FantasyLabs Pro Trends for blocked shots at his position over the last month — and has already hit the DraftKings blocked shots bonus three times in four games.
Pulock is especially too cheap on FanDuel today, where he’s barely over $4,000 in price and has a Bargain Rating of 95%
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Sergei Bobrovsky ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Sergei Bobrovsky has gotten off to a hot start in the new season as he comes into this game with the Flyers on a three-game win streak and sporting a .944 save percentage on the season. The Russian netminder tops the charts today in terms of Ceiling Rating in the Projected Points Model and comes in as a -145 favorite. Bobrovsky also leads the goalies on this slate in terms of saves per game over the last month or so and yet ranks out with a salary that’s under $8,000 on both sites.
For most people who follow the NHL, there’s likely a little bit of memory-induced stress here. Bobrovsky has been very inconsistent the last couple of years and was essentially replaced by a 21-year-old rookie and a journeyman at various points last season. The Ratings, though, tell us we shouldn’t be overly worried in this spot, and any past trauma he’s caused should only help keep his ownership down.
Bobrovsky comes in with the best rating in the Projected Plus/Minus section, which essentially tells us he’s the best value and makes for a great play in all formats for the season’s second Saturday of the year.
Top Value
Elvis Merzlikins ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
When we dive into goaltenders today, it was interesting to see Merzlikins pop up near the top of the Ratings in the Projected Points Model. The Blue Jackets are fairly sizable +134 underdogs here and projected to score over 3.0 goals. Still, the Blue Jackets as a team ranked fourth-last in shots against last season and have already allowed over 34 shots on goal per game in 2021-2022. Merzlikins has held up well so far this year and hasn’t allowed more than two goals against in a game.
He’s not going to be particularly high-rostered against Carolina here either, which is another big attraction, although the tough matchup certainly brings a bigger risk of ruin with it. Merlikins has solid ratings all-around tonight as he ranks sixth in Ceiling Rating in the FantasyLabs Model but ranks first in the shots predicted category as well.
Editor’s note: Joonas Korpisalo was confirmed as the starting goalie after this piece was written.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Sabres PP1/L2 – Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Asplund
For stacking purposes, it’s always nice if we can land on a solid value Line or PP2 stack with good correlation on these big slates, as those kinds of plays lets us stack studs at the rest of our positions. The Sabres offer us the best of both worlds here as their second line also plays together on the first-unit powerplay for Buffalo and have all been quite productive for fantasy in 2021.
I mentioned the good work that Tage Thompson has been doing of late above, but Victor Olofsson has been rating out well of late as a good value as well. He enters, averaging over 3.5 shots on goal per game in 2021, and also has an elite goal-scoring rate on the power play of 0.14 per game, which is the same as other elite wingers like Kyle Conner.
The Sabres get the Devils here, who ranked last in penalty-kill efficiency last season and are banged up at key positions, making this a great upside spot for this value trio. Don’t be afraid to bid low and roster the Sabres powerplay in a great spot.
