The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Sebastian Aho ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
We’ll start things off here by highlighting a player who looks like a great bargain on one site (DraftKings) and could end up being a fantastic low-owned GPP pivot on the other (Fanduel). Sebastian Aho comes into this slate topping the Ratings in the Projected Points Model for play on DraftKings today and also rates out in the top-six for Ceiling Projections on both sites.
Aho is top-10% in short-term form in blocked shots + shots on goal in Pro Trends on FantasyLabs today too and takes on a St. Louis squad who has allowed the ninth-most scoring chances against. Aho may not even get that high ownership on DraftKings, but he’s a fantastic bargain there and his ceiling is good enough in this spot that we can think about him and the Carolina first-line as a great low-owned pivot against the other elite lines today.
Top Value
Phillip Danault ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Winnipeg Jets
Phillip Danault has really started to thrive from a fantasy/offensive perspective in his new role in the top-six with the Kings. Once a defensive only centre, he’s now developed into a two-way threat and comes into this game averaging 2.5 shots on goal, per game, and with 15 SOG now in his last three outings alone.
Danault has the highest Player Rating of anyone under $4,000 in salary on DraftKings today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model and a great match-up with the Jets who have the second worst penalty-kill in the league and allow over 31 shots on goal per game. Danault continues to be a heady value play at his current prices.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Marchessault ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Jonathan Marchessault is cheap enough today that we could have considered him in the value section too. He has an 83% Bargain Rating today on Fanduel where he also rates out with the fifth best Rating for today’s slate. Marchessault and the Golden Knights are still without their top two wingers so he’s continually being asked to carry the load at even strength and on the power-play.
He comes into this game ranked in the top-5% in short-term Corsi Rating in the Pro Trends Tool on FantasyLabs and has been heating up in the shooting department with five goals in his last five games. He’s got a crown jewel of a match-up today too against Vancouver who stinks at every defense related again this year and has the leagues worst penalty-kill at under 63% efficiency. Marchessault is a great mid-tier value on both sites.
Top Value
Mike Hoffman ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Mike Hoffman experiment in Montreal is starting to pay dividends for the club as the streaky scorer has now grabbed three points in his last three games and averaged an impressive 6.0 shots on goal in his last three games as well. It’s a small sample, but Hoffman is now playing on a top-line role beside Nick Suzuki and has seen his ice time rise by about two minutes in average ice-time over his last three games as well.
He’s starting to pop a little more in the Ratings and Projections on FantasyLabs and now is likely the time to get in on him before he becomes a player everyone is piling onto at these prices. Detroit is a fantastic, A+, match-up for a top-six winger like Hoffman too as they take the seventh-most penalties in the league, rank 7th last in penalty-kill efficiency and also give up the second most shots on goal per game. Hoffman might be the best value on the board at any position today.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($7,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
As mentioned above, the match-up here with the Vancouver Canucks is one we want to take advantage of today. The Golden Knights have a solid 3.1 implied puck total and this is a spot for their power-play to potentially find some more positive regression and improve on their pathetic 10.7% power-play efficiency as the Canucks bring in the worst penalty-kill in the league into this game.
Alex Pietrangelo is top-three in Ceiling Rating on both sites today and looks like a great bargain on Fanduel (where he has a 94% Bargain Rating). Pairing him with their top winger Jonathan Marchessault here looks like a pretty simple two man stack and, with Pietrangelo coming off a terrible fantasy game against Minnesota (zero points in 26+ minutes), he may not even be that highly-rostered. He rates out in the top-5% in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs in both Corsi Rating and blocked shots + shots on goal, in short-term form.
Top Value
Devon Toews ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs San Jose Sharks
The Avalanche have the highest implied puck total on the slate today 3.7 goals, so we certainly don’t mind swinging for the fences with some of their lower-priced options today. Devon Toews returned to action in Colorado’s last game and promptly played over 26 minutes on the top pairing. He rates out in the top-10 in Player Ratings on FantasyLabs, on both major sites and is available here at well below $5,000 still — on both sites — as well.
We may not have much short-term info to go on with Toews for 2021, but long-term he ranks out second on CorisFor Rating over the last 12-months and is also top-10 in goals per game. The defense for the Avalanche could all get slight offensive bumps with more opportunity coming there way (with no Nathan MacKinnon) and Toews represents the best value of the group today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Igor Shesterkin is predicted for over 30 shots on goal against today and also a -135 road favorite against the Blue Jackets. Shesterkin shut-out the Blue Jackets once already this year and he comes in with the second highest Ceiling Rating on FantsyLabs today in the Projected Points Model.
While he’s not without the bad game here or there, the Russian brings in a .933 save percentage into this slate and looks like a great bargain on both sites. He could be a fade option in larger fields on DraftKings just because the price and fact he’s a decent favorite could draw more eyes, but he rates out as a top play today, regardless.
Top Value
Alex Nedeljkovic ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
It’s always good to go looking for pure upside when looking for cheap goalies and Nedeljkovic brings lots of that to the table today in his match-up against Montreal. He’s predicted for over 32 saves today in the shot prediction portion of the FantasyLabs Model and has played well of late, posting a .929 save percentage over his last three starts.
Detroit is going to give up shots here (and they have lousy special teams) so there’s a significant bust factor, but the potential for a 35+ save night also looks better here than any other spot on the board. Montreal remains a weaker offensive squad with a bottom-10 power-play. Don’t be afraid to look to Nedeljkovic here in GPPs, who remains a small home favorite and will save you a ton of salary space on Fanduel today.
Notable Stacks
Toronto PP1 – Auston Matthews – William Nylander – Morgan Reilly
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Leafs take on the Sabres today with both teams coming off wins from last night. The Sabres could easily be forgiven for not showing up today though after taking out the Oilers yesterday and they will be hard-pressed to keep a lid on two great offensive teams in a row here. Buffalo has started to erode defensively after a hot start and still feature one of the weakest goaltending duos in the league.
The Leafs top-line has shown some spunk over the last couple of games with Auston Matthews and William Nylander combining for 12 shots on goal against the Flames. The two also now have seven points between them in the last two games as well. Pairing them with Morgan Reilly gives you better exposure to the Leafs power-play here and likely better upside over using the struggling Michael Bunting to complete your stack. We have lots of value available to us at every position today so paying up for a top-line that is trending well — and on a team that has 3.6 implied puck total today — seems like a move we can afford here to maximize our upside in GPPs, and may see lower ownership in GPPs today given the expensive price we have to shell out to get up to these three.
