The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a three-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Center
Top Play
Sean Couturier ($7,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Sean Couturier gets a favorable matchup in the Philadelphia Flyers season-opener against the Vancouver Canucks, and that’s reflected in the FantasyLab modeling for Friday’s three-game slate. The Flyers’ top-line center rates high in our Median, Ceiling, and Floor Projections. Couturier skates on a line with Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny, leading the Flyers’ top powerplay unit. The Flyers’ first line finished with a combined 118 points last season and will have plenty of opportunities against a defensively inept Canucks team.
Vancouver finished last season with the worst expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five in the NHL. Things didn’t look any better in their season-opening loss to the Edmonton Oilers, in which they gave up 28 scoring chances and 12 high-danger opportunities at five-on-five. The Flyers give Couturier 51.3% of his starts in the offensive zone, and he will have more than a few good looks against a porous Canucks defense.
Couturier could finish as the highest-scoring center on the DFS slates and is worthy of inclusion on head-to-head and tournament rosters.
Top Value
Ryan Getzlaf ($3,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Top-line centers don’t get much cheaper than Ryan Getzlaf. The veteran centerman recorded four shots and one assist in the Anaheim Ducks’ first game of the season for 16.5 fantasy points and is set up to succeed again on Friday against the Minnesota Wild.
Across all strengths, Getzlaf finished the Ducks opener with a modest 50.3% expected goals-for rating. A closer look at his metrics supports that the Ducks captain still has plenty of gas left in his tank. Getzlaf generated more high-danger chances than he allowed, despite getting only 40.0% of his starts in the offensive zone.
You can find Getzlaf centering the Ducks’ top powerplay unit against a Wild team that allowed the 12th-most goals on the road last season. Our Median Projections rate Getzlaf in the upper tier while his salary is among the lowest on DFS slates. That makes him a top value up the middle on Friday.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Debrincat ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
A pair of Chicago Blackhawks wingers lead our Median Projections, but we’re giving the edge to the more moderately priced option, Alex Debrincat. Debrincat outpaced linemate, Patrick Kane, in ice-time across all strengths while getting more offensive zone starts than Kane. Both players created the same amount of high-danger opportunities in their season-opening loss, but Debrincat was more effective at creating scoring chances, outpacing Kane 13-7.
We also saw Debrincat record fantasy points with two blocks and two hits, which were absent from Kane’s stat line. Last season, Debrincat finished with a combined 92 hits and blocks compared to Kane’s 28, so it’s safe to assume that difference will be more pronounced on a nightly basis.
The puck normally comes off Debrincat’s stick on the powerplay, as he’s led the Hawks in powerplay tallies in each of the past three seasons. We give the edge to Debrincat as the top option at winger on DFS slates tonight.
Top Value
Alex Chiasson ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Alex Chiasson found a new home in Vancouver this offseason, earning his way onto the top line with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, and Chiasson’s advanced metrics are better for it. Vancouver’s top line drove the play in their first game of the season. Chiasson finished with a 66.7% Corsi rating, creating eight scoring chances and three high-danger opportunities in 14:22 minutes of ice time, including time on the team’s first powerplay unit.
The 31-year-old underachieved relative to production metrics but will continue to create quality chances against Carter Hart and the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. FantasyLabs Models project Chiasson as a mid-range option, but his salary is more affordable than the players he’s grouped with.
That makes him our top winger value on the Friday night docket.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The New Jersey Devils made a big splash this offseason when they landed Dougie Hamilton as a free agent. The 28-year-old is in prime hockey years and is coming off the best points-per-game pace of his career. Last season, Hamilton recorded 42 points in 55 games, leading Carolina Hurricanes defensemen in Corsi rating, production metrics, and expected goals-for.
What makes Hamilton’s accomplishments even more noteworthy is that he posted an expected goals-for rating above 60.0% despite being a regular penalty killer for the Canes last season. He’ll get a chance to shine with the upstart Devils as they look to compete with their young roster.
Not including goaltenders, the Devils only have two players over the age of 28. That means that Hamilton will be relied on to produce across all strengths, chipping in with shots and blocks, inflating his fantasy impact.
Hamilton leads our Median, Ceiling, and Floor Projections among defensemen and is worth including against the defensively inept Blackhawks.
Top Value
Keith Yandle ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,00 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Keith Yandle has a bargain salary but remains an impactful fantasy player. Yandle may see decreased playing time with the Flyers, but he remains a powerplay presence on the top unit.
Yandle has recorded at least 18 powerplay points in each of the past eight seasons. More importantly, his advanced metrics support sustained production. Yandle finished last season with a 65.0% Corsi rating and a 63.9% expected goals-for percentage. No player was deployed more on the Florida Panthers’ powerplay than Yandle, and he can expect more of the same with the Flyers this season.
Yandle works with elite finishers on the Flyers’ special teams unit and will produce outstanding scoring metrics.
Goalie
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Carter Hart ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The 2021 season was unkind to Carter Hart. The young netminder finished with a career-worst 87.7% save percentage but should be considered a progression candidate. That starts on opening night against the Canucks.
Throughout his career, Hart has been a much better goalie on home ice than on the road. The 23-year-old has a 91.8% save percentage on home ice, compared to 88.4% on the road. According to our Pro Trends, Hart has several factors working in his favor, and that’s reflected in our projections, rating him as one of the top options on the slate.
One of the most significant factors impacting Hart’s chances of success tonight is the Vancouver Canucks poor advanced metrics. The Canucks finished last season with the worst expected goals-for percentage in the league. Their first game of this season was no different, as the Canucks posted one of the worst game scores of the young season.
Philadelphia should dictate play tonight, and Hart will shine because of it.
Top Value
John Gibson ($7,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
John Gibson got off to a hot start this season, stopping 33 of 34 shots against the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday. He’ll have a chance to duplicate that success against the offensively-reserved Minnesota Wild tonight.
Gibson has a history of coming out of the gates strong. Through the first six games of the 2021 season, Gibson stopped 94.8% of shots faced. Further, Gibson has an outstanding track record against the Wild in his career. Since coming into the league, the former second-round pick has stopped 93.1% of shots in 15 starts against Minny.
The Wild won’t berate Gibson on Friday night, either. Last season, the Wild finished with the fourth-fewest shots and scoring chances across all strengths and second-fewest scoring chances at five-on-five. That bodes well for Gibson, who stopped all ten even-strength scoring chances he faced on Wednesday.
Gibson has the most affordable goalie salary of the night, leading our Bargain rating, and is the top value among goalies.
Notable Stacks
The Flyers currently rank second on the slate in Expected Fantasy Points and have the second-best overall Matchup Rating.
The Flyers enter tonight’s contest against the Canucks as moderately priced home favorites and have featured among our top and value plays on tonight’s DFS slate. It’s on that basis that we’re highlighting a Flyers stack as our notable stack.
Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny feature on the Flyers’ top line and first powerplay unit and will be deployed in critical situations all night. Ivan Provorov isn’t expected to skate with Couturier and Konecny on the top powerplay but will feature on the second unit.
Provorov will be near the top of the ice-time leaders tonight and can add fantasy points with hits and blocks as well. All three players rank high in our median projections and will have ample opportunity against a Canucks team that doesn’t prioritize defense.
The betting line has slowly drifted in favor of the Flyers, showing confidence in their chances tonight against the Canucks. They will be powered by their first line and powerplay unit, making them our notable stack tonight.
