The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
This Wednesday’s slate features just two games, so ownership will factor in greatly in big GPPs. It’s slated to kick off at 7:30 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) at Philadelphia Flyers
Patrice Bergeron rates out as the top play at center by quite a bit tonight in the FantsyLabs Models. He’s got the highest rating for DraftKings purposes in the Projected Points Model and also leads all centers on the slate in terms of average PPG and SOG over the last 12-months.
The gap here is pretty wide, too, as Bergeron is the only center averaging over 2.75 SOG in that span. The price on DraftKings is ridiculously low, so don’t expect him to be 10% owned here or anything on a two-game slate, but he is coming off a slow game against Dallas where he landed just one SOG, and that may be enough to keep him from being 60% rostered in spots.
The opponent here is certainly better for Bergeron than on opening night, as the Flyers enter with one of the worst penalty-kills in the league going back to last year — when they were second-last in penalty-kill efficiency — and their goaltenders were shellacked for five goals by the first real offense they faced this season.
Bergeron is certainly a better overall play on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating compared to FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Model. Still, his FanDuel pricing (he’s the most expensive center by $400) may also keep his ownership levels down a bit.
Top Value
Brayden Schenn ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) at Vegas Golden Knights
This may be a night where it’s best to just pay up for two centers. Even the top plays at the position aren’t priced that high — especially on DraftKings, where the most expensive center is just $6,600. Loading up on two of the bigger names will still leave you room to stuff in whatever high-priced winger you want. The Blues offense has really come alive to start the season, and they’ve bolstered their depth with the return of Vladimir Tarasenko and the addition of Pavel Buchnivech.
One effect that’s had is to bump down Brayden Schenn to a more secondary role where he’s getting better matchups more consistently and now playing alongside better wingers. He still maintains his role on the Blues powerplay one unit, too, which is obviously a huge boost to his offensive opportunities.
Schenn doesn’t have as strong CorsiFor metrics as some of the elite centers on the slate, but he does rate higher than numerous of them in shots on goal and blocked shots (he does get some blocked shots on a somewhat consistent basis, for an offensive player anyways).
Schenn rates out with the fifth-best Ceiling Projection today in the Projected Points FantasyLabs Model, making for a nice target here.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) at Philadelphia Flyers
The Bruins’ first line feels like a “fade at your own risk” kind of play tonight, and the projections are telling us that maybe we should take that strategy to heart. David Pastrnak rates out with the top Ceiling Projection on both sites again here, just like he did on the Bruins’ first game. The opportunity feels much better against the Flyers in game two, as they continue to carry one of the worst goal tandems in the league and some terrible penalty-killing.
Pastrnak has actually been eclipsed by his teammate Brand Marchand in the goals per game department over the last 12 months (0.46 to 0.6). However, he still has far better shot volume than his teammate coming in at 3.87 to 2.77 SOG over that same time span, and he also carries a better CorsiFor rating too (shots directed at the net).
The goal frequency should close between those two quickly at some point this year and but even if it doesn’t, for now, Pastrnak still rates out as the superior play on a night where the Bruins PP1 feels like it could pot multiple goals.
Top Value
Jonathan Marchessault ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Golden Knights head into this game with the Blues wounded as both of their top-line wingers look set to miss this game. The Knights have a very capable second line that often carries them through patches, so we should be looking towards the likes of Jonathan Marchessault here to step up. Marchessault profiles like an elite first-liner anyways as he comes in averaging 3.04 SOG (second-best on the slate) and has a 15.44 CorsiFor (also second-biggest on the slate).
The price on Marchessault is perplexing on DraftKings, where he’s just $4,500 and is too cheap even if he was playing in the usual role. But now that he’s set to carry the Golden Knights offense, it feels almost unfair. He should see plenty of ice in this spot, and his shot rate means he’ll have a great chance of getting you the SOG bonus at DraftKings tonight.
Also, if you’re thinking of fading him due to ownership (it should be high), then likely just think about adding another Blues forward in his spot. Any Marchessault bust night would likely coincide with a big Blues win as well.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
With two of their top-level wingers out, including one of the highest frequency shot-takers in the league in Max Pacioretty, it should mean that Vegas’ elite core of defensemen picks up the slack by firing a few more pucks on net tonight. When grading out the top options here, it’s Alex Pietrangelo that rises to the top ever so slightly.
While Shea Theodore also rates out as an elite shot-creator, he’s also playing more on the PP2 unit right now and still trails Pietrangelo in the SOG per game department and trails him in big time in the combined SOG plus blocked shots, where the former Blue leads the slate with a 5.52 combined average (per game) over the last 12 months.
We could look to the other game here, too, with Charlie McAvoy and the Bruins taking on a weak penalty-kill, but the Blues weren’t exactly stellar in this department last year either as they featured the seventh-worst penalty-kill in the league in 2020-2021.
Pietrangelo’s the stud to target if you’re paying up.
Top Value
Matt Grzelcyk ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
We may need to pay up to get a piece of that Bruins top line, but one way we can increase our exposure to them for cheap is to look on the back end. Matt Grzelcyk has ceded top power-play duties for now to Charlie McAvoy, but he’s still getting second-unit exposure, and for a cheap defenseman, that’s a great role to have for fantasy purposes. The 27-year-old is averaging over 2.00 shots per game over the last 12-months and also carries a CorsiFor rating that’s sixth-best on this entire slate.
In the model, he rates out just under the elites as well, with the ninth-best Ceiling Projection. You can use Grzelcyk on his own or as part of a Bruins PP2 stack.
Still, he certainly carries the ability to vastly outperform his salary here, as evidenced by his elite Projected Plus/Minus rating in the FantasyLabs Models, which gives him the second-highest rating in this regard as he has a +2.13 gap between his actual expected points on the night and his salary expected points.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jeremy Swayman ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The slate features two just moderate favorites, so we may see somewhat balanced ownership between those two options in ownership. The fact that Jeremy Swayman rates out here as the player with the biggest ceiling in the FantasyLabs Model here shouldn’t be overly shocking, though, as the Bruins don’t have the injury issues the Golden Knights do and have a slightly better/shorter moneyline as favorites than the Golden Knights, who are down two of their best forwards.
Swayman had a great start to his season, posting a .964 save percentage against a deep Stars offense, and looked great in limited action for the Bruins last year, posting an elite .945 save percentage over 10-games. The Flyers offense has looked good despite being down one of their top-two centers in Kevin Hayes to start the year, but that shouldn’t faze the in-form Swayman here, who enters as the more resounding favorite and with the best upside of his position for fantasy.
Top Value
Jordan Binnington ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) at Vegas Golden Knights
Jordan Binnington hasn’t exactly impressed thus far in 2021, as he’s sporting a save percentage under .900 and a GAA average above 3.00 to start the year. The Blues are winning, though, which is all anybody cares about anyways, and that is also good for Binnington’s upside in DFS. When we’re looking for underdogs to target in the net, a close game spread in odds is usually a good indicator that the cheap, underdog goalie we’re after has a legit shot at breaking through for a win for us.
Binnington may not grade out as well as Robin Lehner, who he’ll be facing here, but he does sit as just a +110 underdog as of writing and won’t be facing the Golden Knight’s most dangerous and skilled players upfront in this game. With the Golden Knights banged up, we could even see a scenario where the underdog goalie in this game gets close to or the same amount of ownership as the favorite. Regardless of ownership, Binnington’s still a solid target here for the crowd who doesn’t mind chasing upside that comes with a slightly increased risk of ruin compared to the other goalies available.
Notable Stacks
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Vegas L1 – Karlsson, Marchessault and Pietrangelo
As mentioned above, the Golden Knights are entering this game without two of their top-line players and will need this trio to step up. When we run the stack model today with the Projected Points on, this powerplay trio comes up with one of the best projections of the night.
Jonathan Marchessault and Alex Pietrangelo are already average elite numbers, as outlined above, but William Karlsson also makes for a decent value here. He’s one of the few players who are top five in the ratings on both sites tonight at center, and his usage in all offensive zone starts will likely be boosted here, given the loss of two of their best players upfront.
Using the very affordable Marchessault and Karlsson here, alongside the best defensive play on the slate, is a nice way to start lineups. It gives us really good correlation given the Karlsson-Marchessault connection at even strength and on the power play.
It also lends us the ability to pay up for elite defenseman like Pietrangelo and still get him with extra powerplay correlation. His two best forwards are cheap and now occupying a top place in the lineup. Vegas may not win, but their first-unit still has lots of ability and tons of upside for DFS here.
