The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a three-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action after a convincing win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. That means we should expect another strong showing from Auston Matthews.
Matthews has recorded six points over his past three games, including four powerplay points, one game-winning goal, and finishing plus-four. The Leafs’ center remains a dominant offensive player, putting up an expected goals-for percentage of 66.7% across all strengths and individually responsible for 52 scoring and 17 high-danger chances. We have yet to see how high Matthews can fly as his five-on-five PDO remains at 0.974.
Matthews is among the elite in our Floor, Median, and Ceiling projections and is the top play up the middle.
Top Value
Anton Lundell ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
If you are looking for a value play at center, look no further than Anton Lundell. The Florida Panthers center has six points over his previous five games and has several factors that support sustained production.
According to the FantasyLabs modeling, Lundell has seven Pro Trends working his in favor. The Finnish forward also ranks highly in our points/salary ratings, indicating that he projects higher than his salary implies. Most importantly, Lundell continues to impress despite his standing in the Panthers’ lineup. Although Lundell has a 48.4% Corsi rating and 41.2% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, he only gets 11.1% of his starts in the offensive zone, which highlights his ability to win battles in his own end and travel the distance to create opportunities.
Lundell is a bargain on both slates, particularly at Draftkings, where he carries an insignificant $3,200 salary.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($9,2000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Entering his 17th season in the league, Washington Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin shows no signs of slowing down. That’s reflected in our projections, which rate him as one of the top options available.
Ovechkin is once again leading the league in goals, scoring 10 through the Caps’ first 11 games. The scary part about his early-season output is that seven of his goals have come at five-on-five, highlighting his ability to continue to dominate his opponents. Ovi continues to pepper goalies, putting a league-best 54 shots on net. Tonight’s a good spot for Ovechkin and the Capitals as Craig Anderson shows signs of regression, stopping just 90.4% of shots over his past four starts.
We’re expecting Ovechkin to keep his foot on the gas peddle against the Sabres, according to our modeling.
Top Value
Frank Vatrano ($2,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
Frank Vatrano is another Florida Panther whose salary doesn’t accurately reflect his fantasy contributions early this season.
Vatrano has some of the best five-on-five metrics on the Panthers. The 27-year-old has been on the ice for 27 high-danger and 56 scoring chances while giving up just eight and 40, respectively, culminating in the best expected goals-for percentage on the Panthers. Vatrano should be circled as a progression candidate, as his on-ice PDO is 0.975, and his actual output is substantially lower than expected.
As is the case with most of our value plays, Vatrano’s points/salary projections are near the top of our list, while his median projections are better than everyone else in his salary range.
Defense
Top Play
John Carlson ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
It’s pretty natural to overlook a defenseman of John Carlson’s caliber when he’s playing behind guys like Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. However, Carlson remains an integral part of the Capitals offense, and that’s reflected in his projections tonight.
Carlson sits third on the Caps in points and powerplay points with eight and three, respectively. The two-time All-Star spends the second-most amount of time on the powerplay and, at five-on-five, has been on the ice for more high-danger chances than any other Capital. Carlson sits near the top of our projections among defensemen and has a tremendous amount of upside against a Sabres team that has given up 12 or more quality chances in five of their past seven games.
Don’t look past Carlson when you’re preparing your DFS rosters tonight.
Top Value
Jacob Trouba ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
Although Jacob Trouba’s salary is lower on FanDuel, the veteran defenseman is a value play on both platforms tonight against the Panthers.
Adam Fox gets a lot of credit on the Rangers, but we can’t look past the value that Trouba provides. At five-on-five, Trouba has a better Corsi rating, has been on the ice for more shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances than Fox while getting 11.1% fewer starts in the offensive zone. Trouba’s relative production metrics are also better than Fox’s, as he outpaces his teammate in scoring chances-for percentage and high-danger chances-for percentage, all while being a substantially cheaper option on DFS slates.
Trouba will continue to generate offense and get time on the powerplay with the Rangers. His fantasy ceiling is in the elite range while his salary is not.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Toronto Maple Leafs’ primary goalie Jack Campbell has been trending in the right direction over his recent sample of games and is in an ideal spot against the Kings tonight.
Campbell is stopping 93.6% of shots this season, including 96.8% over his past three starts. The 30-year-old has nearly matched his goals saved above average from last season with 6.3, and he’s stopping 91.4% of high-danger chances at even strength. The Kings have attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their past six games and have been limited to nine or fewer in three of four road games. Scoring chances are also harder to come by for the Kings on the road, where they’ve attempted 21 or fewer in three of four.
The Leafs’ offense is operating efficiently right now, and that’s taking pressure off Campbell as he’s faced 29 or fewer shots in three of his last four games. He projects as one of the best options in net tonight.
Top Value
Igor Shesterkin ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
It’s tough to find value in net in a modest three-game slate such as this one. Nevertheless, Igor Shesterkin is a more affordable option with a high fantasy ceiling.
The Russian netminder is stopping 93.0% of shots this season, including 85.7% of high-danger chances and 94.3% of powerplay shots. Those metrics will go a long way to limiting a Panthers’ attack that has scored the third-most powerplay goals in the league this season. The Rangers are back on home ice tonight, where they have limited two of their three opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances this season. That bodes well for Shesterkin as he looks to get back on track after a rough few outings.
Shesterkin rates highly in our projections, and his low salary makes him a value play on tonight’s slates.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We used Projected Points to build today’s stack, and we landed on a Maple Leafs lineup as one of our top projections.
As noted, Matthews is thriving right now and should continue to produce as his output metrics catchup up with his elite production. There are a number of wing options you can include with him, but we landed on linemate William Nylander. Nylander has four points over his previous three games, including one powerplay point, one game-winning goal, and a plus-four rating. You can include Morgan Reilly on defense, who is coming off 21.3 FanDuel fantasy point performance and has solid underlying metrics. Lastly, you can include Campbell in net as a part of this stack. Campbell is confirmed as the starter for tonight and has been one of the hottest goalies in the league.
The betting market confidence is high on the Leafs as they enter tonight’s contest as one of the chalkiest favorites on the betting board.
