The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a four-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Elias Lindholm ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Calgary Flames are in an ideal spot against the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, setting Elias Lindholm up to continue with his early-season onslaught.
The Swedish centerman is second on the Flames with 23 points in 21 games, centering the top forward line and powerplay unit, and leading forwards in ice time. Lindholm has used that time to put up one of the best expected goals-for ratings on the team, sitting at 59.1% at five-on-five. More importantly, Lindholm has been effective at scoring on one of the top lines in the league, skating next to Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau.
Lindholm rides a seven-game point streak into tonight’s contest and is the top option at center.
Top Value
Pierre-Luc Dubois ($6,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Pierre-Luc Dubois may only have two points over his past four games, but that doesn’t diminish his fantasy value against the Arizona Coyotes on Monday night.
The Winnipeg Jets center remains a solid fantasy option thanks to his strong underlying metrics. Dubois leads the Jets in expected goals-for percentage across all strengths, checking in at 60.8%. The rest of his relative metrics are hovering around the 60.0% mark, and Dubois’s absolute metrics also suggest that he’s undervalued tonight. The former third-overall selection has been on the ice for the third-most high-danger chances and shots on the Jets, ranking fifth in scoring chances.
Dubois has 10 shots over his past four games, and should see his output increase over his coming games.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
It only makes sense to pair our top value play at center with his linemate Kyle Connor, our top play at wing.
After being held pointless for three straight games, Connor knocked in a brace against the Flames last time out, but his fantasy appeal doesn’t end there. Connor has been the best Jets player this season, recording 24 points in 21 games, while leading the team in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances. The 24-year-old should be able to use those metrics to build off his outstanding performance from Saturday night.
The Jets start their top line in the offensive zone over 68.0% of the time. That sets Connor and Dubois up for a good showing against one of the worst teams in the league.
Top Value
Victor Olofsson ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
After starting the season off 5-1-1, the Buffalo Sabres have fallen into their usual rut, winning just three of their next 14 games. Despite the poor outcomes, there are a few players to get excited about on the Sabres.
One of those is Victor Olofsson, who is tied for second on the team in scoring, despite playing in eight fewer games. The Sabres deploy Olofsson on their top line and powerplay, and Olofsson has rewarded them by posting the best expected goals-for rating on the team. The 26-year-old is trending in the right direction, recording at least two shots on net in each of his previous three games.
Olofsson is in a good position to break out of his recent funk, going over his fantasy average just once over his past six games. His salary doesn’t accurately reflect his ceiling, making him a value play against the Seattle Kraken.
Defense
Top Play
Quinn Hughes ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
Quinn Hughes is bordering on a value play with his salaries, but that doesn’t diminish his top value on tonight’s slate.
Based on our projections, Hughes presents with one of the best fantasy ceilings against the struggling Montreal Canadiens. The 22-year-old has just one point of his past six games but is starting to increase his productivity. Hughes has delivered 14 shots on net over his previous four games but has yet to tickle the twine. His analytics support that he’s a breakout candidate as Hughes has the second-best expected goals-for rating on the Nucks, but his below his expected output.
The Canucks have improved their effort over their recent sample of games and Hughes will be leading the charge against the Habs on Monday night.
Top Value
Josh Morrissey ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Josh Morrissey is tragically undervalued against the Coyotes tonight, and should easily surpass the implied value of his salary on both platforms.
Nobody spends more time on the ice for the Jets than Morrissey, and the former first-round selection is using that time to increase his on-ice productivity. Morrissey has been on the ice for the second-most shots, scoring and high-danger chances for Winnipeg this season. He increases his fantasy value by contributing on both ends of the ice, ranking fourth on the Jets in blocked shots and second in powerplay goals.
Morrissey has been on the ice for 27 goals this season, and should see his point share increase as he continues to assert himself as the Jets main defensive option.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The Jets owe a big part of their last win to Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck stood on his head, stopping 34 of 36 shots and helping the Jets to a road win over the Flames. The Jets are in a position to duplicate that success against the Coyotes tonight.
The Desert Dogs attempted more than eight high-danger chances just four times over their past 18 outings and just three times in 12 road games. Hellebuyck has also been on an absolute heater, stopping 93.1% of shots or more in nine of his past 10 games. It helps that the Jets are at home tonight, as the former Vezina Trophy winner has a 93.8% save percentage in seven home games this season.
Hellebuyck won’t face a ton of offense against Arizona, putting him in a position to continue his upward trend and making him our top play between the pipes.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
Both the Canucks and Habs are struggling in their unforgiving Canadian hockey markets, setting the stage for tonight’s game to carry a lot of meaning.The Canucks are trending in the right direction and we like Thatcher Demko to lead them to victory against Montreal.
Demko is coming off a subpar outing against the Columbus Blue Jackets, but is in a good spot to bounce back against the Habs. Montreal has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, scoring the ninth-fewest goals and recording the sixth-worst shooting percentage. Their recent outings don’t inspire a ton of confidence either, as Montreal has attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances in six of their past nine games.
Demko was stopping 93.9% of shots leading up to his most recent outing. He’s in a good spot to get back on track against the Habs, making him a value play on tonight’s slates.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We weren’t hiding anything in our top and value plays, highlighting Jets players in every section. It should come as no surprise that they are our notable stack on Monday’s slate.
The stack that we’re highlighting includes Mark Schiefele at center, instead of Dubois. Scheifele has solid relative metrics and is starting to get some momentum in his scoring, recording five points over his previous eight games. He remains below expected values and should continue to progress offensively. Connor has been the Jets best forward this season and is a natural inclusion on most Jets’ stacks. There are several defensemen to peruse, with Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt both bringing fantasy value to rosters, but we’ve elected to stay with Morrissey in our stack. Hellebuyck remains a force in net and is set up for another impressive start against the Coyotes.
The betting market also supports the Jets, with Winnipeg entering the contest as substantive -330 favorites.
