The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a two-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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Top Play
Dylan Larkin ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
It’s slim pickings on the DFS slates with only two games scheduled for Monday. However, that doesn’t diminish Dylan Larkin’s fantasy value.
Larkin has been the best Detroit Red Wings skater at five-on-five this season, posting a team-leading 55.9% expected goals-for percentage. The 25-year-old has 11 points in 12 games, with three goals coming over the past three games, including two game-winners. Across all strengths, Larkin gets 69.8% of his starts in the attacking zone and all of his relative metrics remain above-average.
The Red Wings have a dynamic top line that is centered by Larkin. He’s the top option down the middle on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been outplayed in four of their past seven games, but their lackluster play hasn’t caught up with them yet. That bodes well for the New York Islanders, who have posted solid relative game scores in four of their past six outings.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau isn’t the Islanders flashiest forward. but he is an effective offensive producer. Pageau has a 53.9% high-danger rating and 50.5% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths while starting just 30.4% of the time in the offensive zone. The 29-year-old remains off expected goal scoring rates and has a deflated PDO, implying that he’s a progression candidate over the coming games.
Pageau will have opportunities against the Lightning and his salary doesn’t reflect his ceiling projections. He’s a value play on DFS rosters tonight.
Wing
Top Play
Oliver Bjorkstrand ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
Oliver Bjorkstrand drives the Columbus Blue Jackets offensive bus. Bjorkstrand is the team leader in points and has impressive underlying metrics that support sustained output.
The Blue Jackets winger has recorded points in five straight games, tallying eight over his past seven games. Most impressively, the majority of those points have come at five-on-five, even though Bjorkstrand quarterbacks the team’s top powerplay line. Bjorstrand’s scoring chance ratio is 59.1% and his high-danger rating is 57.8%. With 62.2% of his zone starts coming in the opposition’s end, he’ll continue to put points on the board for the Blue Jackets.
This salary almost qualifies Bjorkstrand as a value play, but his projections are amongst the best.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Skating next to Larkin on the Red Wings top line and powerplay unit is Lucas Raymond. The former first-round pick is making an immediate impact in the NHL and should continue to thrive against the Blue Jackets.
Raymond has recorded six points over his past six games. His point total is distributed pretty evenly over that span with two of his points coming on the powerplay and four coming at full strength. The Red Wings top line of Raymond, Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi has combined for 42 points through the team’s first 16 games and has metrics to support ongoing production. Raymond has the second-best expected goals-for rating across all strengths and has some of the best projections in our model.
We’ve seen points come in bunches for Raymond, and he could easily surpass his median projections against the Jackets on Monday.
Defense
Top Play
Victor Hedman ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
Victor Hedman is one of the best defensemen in the league, and that’s reflected in his fantasy output on a nightly basis. He ranks near the top of our projections once again and should have scoring opportunities against the Islanders.
The Lightning deploy Hedman under any circumstance, using the former Norris Trophy winner on the powerplay and penalty kill. Hedman has used his time on the powerplay to generate offense for the Bolts and filled shooting lanes to block shots on the penalty kill. In total, Hedman has been on the ice for 190 scoring chances and 83 quality chances which is contributing to his 14.4 fantasy points per game.
Hedman ranks third on the Lightning in points, second in shots on goal, and first in powerplay assists. He delivers on a nightly basis and is a leader in our projections game after game.
Top Value
Filip Hronek ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek has a lot of fantasy upside, and that’s reflected in our projections that rate him as a top option on tonight’s slate. However, Hronek’s salary doesn’t reflect his fantasy value to the Wings.
Hronek will spend time on the Wings’ powerplay, with two of his eight points coming with the second unit. That means that the Czech defender has scored six of his eight points at even strength. Hronek gets most of his starts in the defensive zone but has still managed a respectable 48.9% expected goals-for percentage, which jumps to 51.5% across all strengths.
Hronek is running hot right now, scoring four points over his past four games. He’ll look to continue that trend against a Blue Jackets team that has given up 11 goals over their past three outings.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The Tampa Bay Lightning owe a lot of their success to Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Russian netminder has been a steadying force for the Lightning during back-to-back Stanley Cup runs and continues to dominate nightly.
Vasilevskiy has been a stalwart over his recent sample, stopping 94.3% of shots over his past five outings and helping the Bolts to points in all five games. The Conn Smythe winner has solid advance metrics, stopping 84.4% of high-danger chances, 89.7% of scoring chances and 92.5% of shots at even strength. The Bolts are at home tonight where Vasilevskiy is 114-36-11 throughout his career.
It’s a short slate and Vasilevskiy is the best option in net tonight.
Top Value
Alex Nedeljkovic ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Another goaltender who is trending in the right direction is Alex Nedeljkovic, who could easily surpass expectations on Monday night.
Nedeljkovic has stopped 93.7% of shots over his past four starts, winning his last three. We should continue to see strong outings from the Wings netminder, as he remains below average in high-danger save percentage, scoring chance save percentage and even strength save percentage. Somewhat surprisingly, Nedeljkovic has better road splits, as he stops 92.9% of shots on the road compared to 91.1% at home, with two of his four wins coming on the road.
The Red Wings are well positioned on Monday night and Nedeljkovic is an underrated option between the pipes.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Our lineup builder loves the two betting favorites on the Monday slate and we elected to highlight a Lightning stack against the Islanders at home.
Using projected points as the filter, we landed on Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat upfront. The linemates are have combined for 19 points this season, including two powerplay points and five game-winning goals. Palat remains well off expected values and is a progression candidate to key in on over Tampa’s coming games. The backend of the Bolts’ stack consists of two players already mentioned, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Their fantasy value is well known and they are in a good spot at home against the Islanders.
The Lightning are favored against the Islanders in the betting market tonight and are the chalkier of the two betting options. That confidence is also reflected in our projections and the four aforementioned Lightning players will figure prominently in the Lightning’s game plan.
