The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ can right their sinking ship against the Blue Jackets on Monday night, and Auston Matthews will help buoy them.
Matthews remains the on-ice leader in nearly every offensive category for the Leafs’. The former first overall selection paces the team in scoring and high-danger chances, Corsi rating, goals, points, and shots on net. After a modest two-game scoring slump, Matthews got back on the scoresheet against the Canucks last time out, scoring two goals on eight shots.
After his most recent performance, Matthews has 11 points over his past six games, and he projects as an elite option on Monday’s slate.
Top Value
Mikael Backlund ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
If there’s one thing the Oilers are good at, it’s not preventing goals. That benefits Mikael Backlund and the Flames on Monday night.
Backlund has improved his offensive output over his recent sample, recording four points over his previous five outings. The Swedish center has improved his production metrics, attempting 10 shots over that span. However, there’s still a big disconnect between Backlund’s production metrics and output, implying that he remains a progression candidate over his coming games.
The Flames’ second-line center has been on the ice for 39 goals, well below his expected value of 49.3, implying we could see a prolonged scoring streak from Backlund as his metrics balance out.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Huberdeau ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
No team has the blueprints for slowing down Jonathan Huberdeau and the Panthers. The Sabres could be nothing more than a speed bump as the Panthers continue their onslaught.
Huberdeau is an elite talent, which is validated by his on-ice metrics. The former Saint John Sea Dog leads Panthers’ forwards in scoring and high-danger chances and is individually responsible for 148 and 67, respectively.
Opponents should be terrified because Huberdeau could see increased scoring over his coming games. The former Calder Trophy winner remains off his career average shooting percentage, currently scoring on 11.9% of shots compared to 12.4%. If he catches up to his career-best mark of 16.4%, there may be no stopping Huberdeau.
Top Value
Taylor Hall ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Just last week, the Bruins humbled the Kings with a 7-0 defeat. Taylor Hall recorded a goal and an assist in that game, part of his 24.8 fantasy point performance. Hall is undervalued against the Kings again on Monday’s docket.
The Canadian winger has been trending positively over his recent sample, recording points in seven of his past nine outings. Hall continues to put up elite scoring metrics, establishing 60.8% scoring chance and 60.5% Corsi ratings, contributing to his 62.9% expected goals-for percentage.
Like Huberdeau, Hall remains below his career average shooting percentage and should continue to produce at an elite rate against the Kings.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Oilers have turned to rearguard Darnell Nurse more frequently over their recent schedule. The move hasn’t yielded increased scoring from Nurse, but we’re expecting growth against the Flames on Monday.
Nurse has played at least 24:46 in eight straight games, recording just one goal and two assists over that span. That decreased output has furthered the gap between Nurse’s actual and expected values. The former first-round selection remains off his expected goals-for total of 75.2, above his actual rating of 69, and has a below-average 0.988 PDO.
Reconciling Nurse’s metrics with output implies that the veteran defenseman is due for progression. According to our projections, that starts tonight against the Flames.
Top Value
Noah Hanifin ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
There is a d-man on the opposite blue line in the Battle of Alberta who is also worthy of inclusion on Monday. Flames defender Noah Hanifin has improved his production metrics of late with three straight multishot outings, and those efforts should start to pay off.
Those recent performances have elevated Hanifin’s already strong metrics. The former fifth-overall selection ranks fifth on the Flames in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances, and he’s racked up 21 assists and 26 points in 53 games. What’s most impressive about Hanifin’s metrics is that he puts up his elite ratings despite starting just 51.3% of his shifts in the attacking zone.
The Flames skate Hanifin on their top pairing and second powerplay unit, giving him plenty of time with their top scorers. The Oilers struggle to prevent scoring, and Hanifin should exceed his implied value on Monday.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Spencer Knight ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Panthers are turning to backup goalie Spencer Knight against the Sabres, and the youngster has a couple of recent strong showings to build off.
Knight struggled last time out, stopping 30 of 34 shots against the New York Rangers, but his two outings before that were spectacular. The 20-year-old allowed one goal in each of those games, posting a combined 96.2% save percentage. The Panthers can shelter their young netminder against an inferior Sabres’ attack that averages just 19.6 scoring and 8.0 high-danger chances per game.
Monday night sets up as a bounce-back spot for Knight, and he rates as one of the top goaltending options available on tonight’s slate.
Jacob Markstrom ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
Flames goalie Jacob Markstrom has stabilized the team’s defensive zone, and his salary doesn’t accurately reflect his fantasy ceiling against the Oilers.
Edmonton’s elite scoring capabilities are cooked into Markstrom’s salary, but the Oilers have struggled to produce as the visitors of late. Edmonton has attempted a combined 18 high-danger chances and 47 scoring opportunities at five-on-five over their past three games. That should lighten the workload on Markstrom, who is 14-4-5 at home this season with a 1.98 goals-against average and 92.3% save percentage.
Calgary rates as one of the best analytics teams in the league this season, and Markstrom continues to benefit from their structure. We’re expecting another strong performance from him against the Oilers.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Any time the Colorado Avalanche are playing, chances are they have a notable stack worth considering. That is the case again on Monday, as we highlight our favorite DFS lineup against the New York Islanders.
Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have been the Avs’ best players this season, ranking fifth and second in team scoring, respectively. Sandwiched between them is Cale Makar, the Avs’ offensively-gifted defenseman who leads the league scoring among defensemen. Those players’ success is supported analytically, as the skaters all have expected goals-for ratings above 62.0%. Pavel Francouz is the projected starter and a natural inclusion on any Avs’ stack. Francouz is 9-3-1 this season and is stopping 94.1% of shots over his last two starts.
Betting market confidence is high on the Avalanche as they are priced as -200 favorites and are drawing 73% of the betting action. That is reflected in our algorithm, projecting Colorado as a top stacking option.
