The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The Oilers’ offense is proliferating, scoring four or more goals in seven of their past nine. We’re riding that trend with Connor McDavid as our top play at center against the Coyotes.
I’m not sure what else we can say about McDavid. The reigning MVP has multi-point efforts in eight of his past nine, totaling 18 points and 31 shots over that stretch. Analytically, he is among the best, posting a team-best 68.3% expected goals-for rating and leading the NHL. Assessing McDavid’s season-long and recent performances substantiates that he’s still the best.
The Yotes are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, wrapping up their third game in four nights. That scheduling is compounded by less than ideal travel, and several factors point to McDavid and the Oilers continuing their outburst.
Top Value
Anze Kopitar ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
You might not recognize that the Kings rank as an elite analytics team unless you’ve been paying close attention. The Kings sit seventh in expected goals-for rating at five-on-five thanks to their effective offense. They’ve been firing on all cylinders recently, making Anze Kopitar an affordable fantasy option with an elite ceiling.
Kopitar leads the Kings in assists, points, and powerplay points while ranking third in shots and fifth in blocked shots. The Slovenian center has recorded five points, eight shots, and 59.4 fantasy points over his last three games, but his salary doesn’t reflect his increased productivity.
The Kings have put up 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in all but one of their past six games. They also have the advantage of hosting the Kraken, one of the worst teams in the league, for the second consecutive game. Kopitar is well-positioned to sustain his elite play.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Blackhawks have turned a corner with their efforts recently, averaging 12.5 high-danger chances per game over their last four. They host the inferior Buffalo Sabres on Monday night, suggesting that their recent hot run will continue. Our projections reflect that, with Patrick Kane ranking as a top play on the wing.
Individually, Kane is thriving at the moment, recording nine points over his past four games. His production metrics support that output is sustainable, with Kane attempting nine shots over his last two games while starting an astounding 88.9% of his shifts in the attacking zone this season.
The Sabres have abandoned defensive zone coverage over their recent stretch, allowing 64 scoring and 31 high-danger chances across all strengths over their past two outings. Kane and the Hawks will be ready to capitalize.
Top Value
Alex Tuch ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Unfortunately for the Hawks, the improved offensive play hasn’t helped them prevent scoring. Alex Tuch has been one of the Sabres’ best forwards this season and should exceed his implied salary value at the United Center.
Tuch has appeared in only 34 games this season, impacting his absolute metrics; however, his relative production stats indicate that he’s been the best of the Sabres bunch. The 25-year-old leads the team in scoring and high-danger chance ratings, starting 58.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone, resulting in the best expected goals-for rating on the Sabres.
Tuch’s output has been limited recently, recording just three points over his last 11 games. Still, he continues to produce for the Sabres, recording 30 shots over that span while skating on the top line and powerplay unit. A matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed 16 goals over their last four games, could be what’s needed to get Tuch back on track.
Defense
Top Play
Anthony DeAngelo ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
The Hurricanes travel to take on the Capitals in a crucial Metropolitan Division matchup amid an upswing in their analytics. That correlates with Anthony DeAngelo’s increased productivity, indicating that the free-wheeling defenseman could have a big night.
DeAngelo has topped 20 minutes in three straight games, totaling one goal, one assist, and 10 shots over that sample. The Canes rearguard has the best Corsi and expected goals-for ratings among the defense corps, staking him to 42 points in 47 games, also tops among Carolina’s d-men.
The Caps have given up three or more goals in five straight games and will be playing their third game in four nights. The Hurricanes are coming off a seven-goal performance and show no signs of taking their foot off the pedal. DeAngelo is our top play on defense.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Vancouver Canucks are fighting for their playoff lives, which has led to some impressive efforts recently. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has gotten in on the action and has a high fantasy ceiling and low salary against the Blues.
OEL heads into tonight’s contest on a modest two-game point streak; however, there remains room for growth for the Nucks’ defenceman, who continues to underachieve relative to production metrics. Ekman-Larsson remains well off his expected totals this season, with an on-ice goals-for total of 56 below his expected value of 68.1. That also leaves him below his expected rating, with a PDO of 0.990.
Reconciling Ekman-Larsson’s production with his output suggests that we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg with his output metrics. He’ll look to continue his strong play against a Blues team that has allowed 19 goals over their last four games. OEL is a value play on Monday’s slate.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jonathan Quick ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
Veteran netminder Jonathan Quick is showing that he’s still got some gas left in the tank. He’ll look to build off his recent strong performances as the Kings host the Kraken for the second straight game.
This season, Quick has established a 90.9% save percentage and 2.65 goals-against average, which are his best stats since the 2017-18 season. He’s been trending in the right direction over his recent sample, stopping 92.2% of shots over his past four starts and going 2-1-1.
The former Vezina Trophy winner won’t face a sincere challenge from the Kraken, who rank as one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Seattle has attempted more than nine high-danger chanes at five-on-five just twice over their previous nine contests and have scored the third-fewest goals this season.
The available data suggests that Quick is worth the investment on Monday.
Top Value
Frederik Andersen ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
A matchup against the Capitals is driving the price on Frederik Andersen down, flying in the face of our projections, which rate Andersen as a top goaltending option.
Andersen is one of the best goalies in the NHL this season. The Danish tendy ranks fourth in wins, first in goals-against average, and third in save percentage among qualified goalies. His splits are also noteworthy, as Andersen has been equally impressive on the road as he has been at home, winning 15 games on the road with a 92.4% save percentage compared to 16 wins at home with a 92.9% save percentage.
Andersen heads into tonight’s contest in good form, posting above-average save percentages in two of his past three outings. He’ll be ready to put a cap on Washington’s offense and is a value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Edmonton Oilers feature more prominently than any other team in our lineup builder, and we are highlighting them as our notable stack on Monday.
As a team, the Oilers offense continues to thrive under Jay Woodcroft. We’ve discussed the merits of including Connor McDavid in lineups, but the stack we’re highlighting includes Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman up front. Draisaitl is coming off a four-point performance, which is part of an eight-game point streak in which he’s recorded 15 points. Hyman comes into tonight’s Western Conference matchup on a more modest two-game point streak but is starting to build chemistry with Draisaitl. We’ve aligned them with Darnell Nurse on defense and Mikko Koskinen between the pipes. Nurse does it all for the Oilers, recording fantasy points on both ends of the ice while playing with the Oilers’ best skaters. We’re anticipating a bounce-back performance from Koskinen after getting yanked against the Flames on Friday night.
The betting market has also expressed confidence in the Oilers tonight, installing them as -400 favorites against the Coyotes.
