The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Leon Draisaitl ($8,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Connor McDavid gets a lot of love in Edmonton, and rightfully so, but we’ve seen more production from Leon Draisaitl this season, and that’s evident over the Oilers’ recent sample.
Draisaitl leads the league in scoring and averages more fantasy points per night than McDavid. The German-born forward comes into tonight’s contest against the Senators amid an increase in scoring, recording seven points over his past four games, including two-multi point outings. His efforts have equaled 31.2 or more fantasy points in all three of those outings.
The Sens have given up 14 or more high-danger chances in four of their past six. Draisaitl and the Oilers’ offense is in an excellent position to capitalize, attempting 55 high-danger and 115 scoring chances over their previous three games.
Top Value
Nico Hischier ($4,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
The New Jersey Devils continue to assert themselves as an analytically dominant team, averaging 13.4 quality chances per game over their past ten. Still, they haven’t been able to translate that to increased output, as they’ve scored more than two goals just four times over that stretch. We like their chances to pour it on the Maple Leafs on Monday night.
Nico Hischier centers the Devils’ second line and top powerplay unit but remains an undervalued fantasy contributor. Hischier has a 57.2% high-danger chance rating and a 55.9% scoring chance rating, despite starting just 46.2% of his shifts in the attacking zone. Those metrics have increased over his recent sample, as Hischier has directed three or more shots on target in eight of his past 11.
We’re expecting increased production from Hischier over his coming games, as his on-ice PDO of 0.984 is below-average, and the former first overall selection is below his career-long shooting percentage.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Huberdeau ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Panthers play the Blue Jackets on the second night of a back-to-back Monday. That could mean another monster performance from Jonathan Huberdeau and the Panthers’ offense.
The Panthers have scored four or more goals in 13 of their previous 16 contests, and Huberdeau has been a massive part of their success. The former Calder Trophy winner has 29 points over that span, recording eight multi-point games and averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game.
The Jackets have allowed no fewer than ten high-danger chances in any of their past eight contests. They allowed the Montreal Canadiens to score three goals last night and will be in for a rude awakening against Huberdeau and the Panthers.
Top Value
Mitch Marner ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
We shouldn’t be talking about Mitch Marner as a value play, but here we are. Marner’s salary is hovering in the $6,000 range on both platforms, despite a recent increase in his productivity.
The 24-year-old heads into Monday night’s battle against the Devils on a five-game point streak. Marner has recorded a goal in each contest, adding four assists for an impressive nine points and 126.9 fantasy points. He skates with one of the best lines in the league and features on the most dangerous powerplay.
Marner remains below his expected goals-for percentage, implying that further growth is expected from the winger. Marner is one of the top-rated forwards on the slate but comes at a bargain bin price.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Oilers offense is showing signs of improvement, and Darnell Nurse is getting in on the action. Nurse has recorded a point in three straight games but still remains below expected values. That’s a good indicator that further improvement is coming from the veteran defenseman.
As a team, the Oilers are underachieving relative to their metrics, with actual goals-for ratings below expected and PDOs below 1.000 at five-on-five and across all strengths. That’s analogous to Nurse’s performances, as his actual rating of 50.0% is lower than his expected value of 56.9%.
As the Oilers progress, so will Nurse. He projects as a top option, per our Models, against the Sens.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Canucks have found their rhythm under new head coach Bruce Boudreau. That’s reflected in their metrics and actual outcomes, as they have made headway in both respects. One player we’re expecting to see more from is Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
Ekman-Larsson plays across all strengths for the Canucks, averaging the second-most minutes per game, yet the veteran rearguard has only eight points through his first 41 games. OEL has delivered 97 shots on target, spending time on the powerplay, but has been on the ice for just 29 goals, well below his expected total of 46.1.
Ekman-Larsson comes at a discounted salary, but his metrics suggest room for improvement. He’s worth a flyer over the coming games, as his output should catch up with his production metrics.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
After two long seasons, the Panthers are getting the vintage Sergei Bobrovsky they were hoping for when they signed him to a seven-year deal.
Bobrovsky struggled through his first two seasons in the Sunshine State, putting up -16.8 goals saved above average and a 90.2% save percentage. The former Vezina Trophy winner has responded this season by going 22-4-3 through his first 31 starts and stopping 92.1% of shots for 10.9 goals saved above average.
The Blue Jackets’ offense has struggled this season, and it’s unlikely they get anything going against one of the best teams in the league. Bobrovsky is one of the top options in net tonight.
John Gibson ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Anaheim Ducks have been on a wildly successful run, going 4-0-1 against some of the best teams in the league. We’re projecting them to keep their foot on the pedal against the Red Wings on Monday. That should mean another solid performance from John Gibson.
Gibby has been nearly unbeatable over his recent sample, allowing one goal in four of his past six starts while stopping 95.1% of shots faced. The Ducks won’t face a relentless attack from the Red Wings, who have had one of the more passive offenses in the league this season. Detroit has attempted seven high-danger chances and had 27 or fewer scoring opportunities across all strengths in three of their past five.
The Ducks will be looking to conclude their five-game road trip with a win, and Gibson should maintain his recent stellar play against the Wings’ ineffective offense.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are some substantial favorites in the betting market, which is reflected in our lineup builder. Some of the betting favorites have multiple combinations that project highly on Monday’s slate. We’re highlighting our favorite Leafs’ stack in what should be a high-scoring affair.
The Leafs’ top line features two forwards who project near the top of the position. Auston Matthews and Marner have played well recently, recording seven and nine points, respectively, over Toronto’s past five games. They’ll have a chance to get to Devils’ goalie Jon Gillies, who is stopping just 90.7% of shots this season. Morgan Rielly skates with Matthews and Marner across all strengths and should be able to add to his recent three-game point streak in which he’s recorded five points. Jack Campbell is the projected starter and should build off his recent 6-1-1 streak.
Betting confidence is high on the Leafs. Toronto opened as -310 favorites and currently sit in the -330 range. They should live up to expectations at home against the Devils.
