The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note(s): Monday’s slate is down to just one game after the postponement of Blue Jackets vs. Sabres.
Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
The Minnesota Wild travel to take on the Dallas Stars on Monday night, one of only two games being played. Regardless of volume, Joel Eriksson Ek is a top play at center.
The 24-year-old has an outstanding track record over his recent sample, attempting four or more shots in eight of his past nine games. That has resulted in increased output, as the center has eight points over that stretch. All of Eriksson Ek’s relative metrics are above 50.0% despite him getting only 45.1% of his starts in the attacking zone, clearly illustrating his value for the Wild.
Both platforms have Eriksson Ek’s salary priced affordably, and our projections rate him as one of the best options available.
Wing
Top Play
Kirill Kaprizov ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Kirill Kaprizov is the most expensive forward on Monday’s slate, and for good reason. Based on our projections, he’s also one of the highest-rated players.
Kaprizov leads the Wild with 33 points through 29 games. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has a liberal standard for firing shots on net, peppering goalies with 102 shots, the 11th-most this season. Kaprizov has been flourishing lately, accumulating 15 shots over his previous three outings. That has translated to only one goal so far, but Kaprizov continues to rank first in scoring chances and third in quality opportunities, which lends itself to increased output.
The Stars have allowed have allowed three or more goals in five of their past six. Kaprizov and the Wild will be ready to extend that misery on Monday.
Defense
Top Value
Ryan Suter ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
As usual, there are a few Stars’ defensemen who project well based on our algorithm. One that presents value as a low-cost option with a high fantasy ceiling is Ryan Suter.
Suter remains below expected values, underachieving offensively relative to his solid play across all strengths. The Stars deploy Suter on the team’s second powerplay unit, elevating his fantasy appeal. However, Suter has strong relative metrics which support that he should be more involved in the Stars’ scoring than he is. Suter ranks first on the team in scoring and high-danger chances but only has 14 points in 28 games.
We’re expecting meaningful progression from Suter as his salary doesn’t reflect his potential against the Wild.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Cam Talbot ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Cam Talbot has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, and he is in an ideal spot against a Stars offense that is struggling to find the back of the net.
The Stars have scored one or fewer goals in four of their past five, and remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Their offensive metrics are lacking, as the Stars have attempted six high-danger chances at five-on-five in three of their previous six games. That sets Talbot up to continue his outstanding start to the season, as he’s tied for the third-most wins in the league.
Talbot is riding high, stopping 93.2% of shots over his previous five starts. The veteran netminder can build off that against the Stars tonight.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Since there’s not much to choose from on Monday, we’ve elected to go with a Wild stack, as they take on a Stars team struggling to get win.
The Wild stack starts up front with Kirill Kaprizov. Minnesota’s offense runs through Kaprizov and he provides tremendous upside tonight. Skating next to Karpizov is center Ryan Hartman. The well-traveled centerman is mong the Wild leaders in output and production, and his success correlates well with Kaprizov. Alex Goligoski is the top-rated defenseman in our stack. He is a 200-foot player, contributing fantasy points in the attacking and defending zones. As discussed, Talbot is riding a hot streak right now, and should be able to continue that against a Stars team that is struggling to pot goals.
The Stars opened as slight -115 favorites, with money coming in on the Wild, shifting the line to -110. That modest advantage is also reflected in our projections, rating the Wild stack as one of the best available.
