The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
We are highlighting a pair of centers from tonight’s matchup between the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres, both of whom straddle the line between top and value plays but are worth including on DFS rosters tonight.
Evgeny Kuznetsov and the Caps are thriving right now. The Russian center enters tonight’s contest on a 10-game point streak, helping Washington to a 7-2-1 record over that stretch. The Caps deploy Kuznetsov with Alex Ovechkin on the first line and powerplay, giving him plenty of opportunities to get involved in the scoring.
After recording three or more goals in nine straight games, the Capitals have been limited to two goals in each of their last two games. We’re anticipating more goals from Washington, and Kuznetsov to continue to factor into the scoring.
Top Value
Tage Thompson ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
The other center we’re looking at is the Sabres’ Tage Thompson. The 24-year-old has emerged as Buffalo’s top scoring threat and should reach his fantasy ceiling against the Caps.
Thompson leads the Sabres in goals and points, using a hot streak to pad his lead in both categories. The Sabres’ first-line center has four goals and two assists over his past five outings, recording points in four of those games. Analytically, he ranks as one of the best, posting the third-best expected goals-for rating while being on the ice for the second-most high-danger and scoring chances among Sabres’ forwards.
Thompson is a home-body with 31 of his points coming in the Sabres’ friendly confines, making him a point-per-game player at KeyBank Center. That also makes him one of our favorite options on tonight’s slate.
Wing
Top Play
Johnny Gaudreau ($7,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Tonight’s battle between the Arizona Coyotes and Calgary Flames could get ugly. These teams are positioned on opposite ends of the advanced metrics spectrum, implying that Johnny Gaudreau and his teammates could be due for a huge performance.
On an individual level, Gaudreau remains the Flames top scoring option. The diminutive winger leads the Flames in scoring and shots while also posting team-leading metrics. Gaudreau is the pacesetter in scoring and high-danger chances, resulting in the third-best expected goals-for percentage on the team.
Coyotes goaltender Karel Vejmelka has allowed three or more goals in four straight games, posting consecutive save percentages below 90.0%. There may be no stopping Gaudreau and the Flames tonight.
Top Value
Rickard Rakell ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
Playing next to a guy like Evgeni Malkin comes with all sorts of benefits, and we’re expecting recently acquired Rickard Rakell to reap the rewards as the Pittsburgh Penguins travel for a matchup against the New York Rangers.
Rakell has been held pointless in his first two games with the Penguins, but there are a couple of indicators suggesting that increased output is on the horizon. The 28-year-old has multi-shot efforts in both contests and a sparkling 63.6% Corsi rating across all strengths. It’s also worth noting that Rakell has a 68.4% scoring chance rating despite starting just 45.5% of his shifts in the attacking zone.
Big things could be coming from Rakell as he starts to build chemistry with his linemates. He could easily surpass his implied value tonight.
Defense
Top Play
Zach Werenski ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets may have misplayed their analytics cards, electing to start Connor Hellebuyck on the first night of their back-to-back last night against the Ottawa Senators. That opens the door for a big performance from Zach Werenski and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Werenski is the Jackets’ go-to option on the blueline, leading the defense corps with 41 points. Columbus uses Werenski under any circumstance, playing him on the powerplay, penalty-kill, and even strength, allowing him to accumulate fantasy points on both ends of the ice.
The former All-Rookie is a menace is the attacking zone, starting 60.3% of his shifts in the opponents’ end, but also ranks third on the team in blocked shots, stepping in front of 85 shots so far this season.
It’s been eight games since the Jets allowed fewer than 10 high-danger chances at five-on-five. Werenski and the Blue Jackets will capitalize on that trend.
Top Value
Dmitry Orlov ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Without question, John Carlson remains the top option on the Caps’ blueline; however, we’ve seen improved efforts from Dmitry Orlov that suggests he’s worth including on DFS rosters as a value play against the Sabres.
Orlov is trending positively over his recent sample, recording three-multi shot performances over his past four games. Still, his fantasy contributions aren’t limited to offensive metrics, as Orlove has blocked six shots over his previous five outings, ranking fourth on the team in that category.
The Capitals’ rearguard checks the boxes as a value play, spending time on the team’s powerplay while also filling shooting lanes in the defending zone. We like him to reach his fantasy ceiling against the Sabres.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Pavel Francouz ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Colorado Avalanche are in a team-friendly spot on Friday night, hosting the Philadelphia Flyers on the second night of a back-to-back. Consequently, Pavel Francouz rates as one of the top goaltending options available.
Offensively, the Flyers are treading water, attempting nine or fewer high-danger chances in five straight games. We’re not anticipating growth in that category as they take on an Avs’ team that has allowed a combined seven total quality chances and 33 scoring opportunities over their last two games.
We’re expecting that to have some carry-over effect for Francouz, who is 11-3-1 on the season with a 91.9% save percentage, including 6-1-1 at Ball Arena. Look to him as a top play between the pipes.
Top Value
Elvis Merzlikins ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
As noted, tonight’s spot sets up well for the Jackets, but that’s not reflected in Elvis Merzlikins’s salary. The Latvian netminder can surpass expectations against the Jets.
Merzlikins has posted above-average save percentages in three of his past five outings, helping Columbus to victories in four of those games. He faces a Winnipeg squad that continues to get outplayed, failing to generate any meaningful offense. The Jets have posted expected goals-for ratings below 50.0% in five straight games, attempting more than eight quality chances just once over that span.
The Jackets have done well to shelter their goalies recently, allowing nine or fewer high-danger chances in six of their past seven. Winnipeg is skating on consecutive nights amid a downturn in their metrics, setting Merzlikins and the Blue Jackets up for success.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
A couple of teams enter tonight’s slate as -2.5 favorites on the puck line. We’re highlighting the Flames as our notable stack when they host the Coyotes.
The Flames’ top line has combined for 225 points this season and drive the team’s production. Landing on any two of their three top forwards wouldn’t be a bad option, but our favorite combination includes Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau. These players’ success correlates well, and these forwards have combined for five points and 10 shots over their past two games. We’ve aligned them with Rasmus Andersson, who is the top offensive contributor on the Flames blue line. Andersson leads the Flames defense with 39 points and skates on the team’s powerplay. Jacob Markstrom has been on another level at home, posting a 92.8% save percentage to go along with 18 wins in 29 games.
Calgary enters tonight’s Western Conference matchup with an implied 80.0% chance of winning. That confidence is reflected in our projections, ranking the Flames as a top stacking option.
